scholarly journals Runoff forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition and artificial neural networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 1633-1648
Author(s):  
Xin Jing ◽  
◽  
Jungang Luo ◽  
Shangyao Zhang ◽  
Na Wei
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Runoff Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Correlation Information

<abstract> <p>Accurate runoff forecasting plays a vital role in water resource management. Therefore, various forecasting models have been proposed in the literature. Among them, the decomposition-based models have proved their superiority in runoff series forecasting. However, most of the models simulate each decomposition sub-signals separately without considering the potential correlation information. A neoteric hybrid runoff forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), convolution neural networks (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) called VMD-CNN-LSTM, is proposed to improve the runoff forecasting performance further. The two-dimensional matrix containing both the time delay and correlation information among sub-signals decomposing by VMD is firstly applied to the CNN. The feature of the input matrix is then extracted by CNN and delivered to LSTM with more potential information. The experiment performed on monthly runoff data investigated from Huaxian and Xianyang hydrological stations at Wei River, China, demonstrates the VMD-superiority of CNN-LSTM to the baseline models, and robustness and stability of the forecasting of the VMD-CNN-LSTM for different leading times.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals A Carbon Price Forecasting Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Spiking Neural Networks

Energies ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqiang Sun ◽  
Tong Chen ◽  
Zhinong Wei ◽  
Yonghui Sun ◽  
Haixiang Zang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Spiking Neural Networks ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Mode Decomposition

The importance of short lag-time in the runoff forecasting model based on long short-term memory

2020 ◽  
Vol 589 ◽  
pp. 125359
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Jiaxu Huang ◽  
Zhen Han ◽  
Hongkai Gao ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Runoff Forecasting ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

scholarly journals Daily Runoff Forecasting Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruifang Yuan ◽  
Siyu Cai ◽  
Weihong Liao ◽  
Xiaohui Lei ◽  
Yunhui Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Runoff Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Hydrological series data are non-stationary and nonlinear. However, certain data-driven forecasting methods assume that streamflow series are stable, which contradicts reality and causes the simulated value to deviate from the observed one. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was employed in this study to decompose runoff series into several stationary components and a trend. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model was used to build the prediction model for each sub-series. The model input set contained the historical flow series of the simulation station, its upstream hydrological station, and the historical meteorological element series. The final input of the LSTM model was selected by the MI method. To verify the effect of EEMD, this study used the Radial Basis Function (RBF) model to predict the sub-series, which was decomposed by EEMD. In addition, to study the simulation characteristics of the EEMD-LSTM model for different months of runoff, the GM(group by month)-EEMD-LSTM was set up for comparison. The key difference between the GM-EEMD-LSTM model and the EEMD-LSTM model is that the GM model must divide the runoff sequence on a monthly basis, followed by decomposition with EEMD and prediction with the LSTM model. The prediction results of the sub-series obtained by the LSTM and RBF exhibited better statistical performance than those of the original series, especially for the EEMD-LSTM. The overall GM-EEMD-LSTM model performance in low-water months was superior to that of the EEMD-LSTM model, but the simulation effect in the flood season was slightly lower than that of the EEMD-LSTM model. The simulation results of both models are significantly improved compared to those of the LSTM model.

scholarly journals A Compound Approach for Monthly Runoff Forecasting Based on Multiscale Analysis and Deep Network with Sequential Structure

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Chen ◽  
Shuning Dong ◽  
Zhiguo Cao ◽  
Junting Guo
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Sequential Structure ◽  
Runoff Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

Accurate runoff forecasting is of great significance for the optimization of water resource management and regulation. Given such a challenge, a novel compound approach combining time-varying filtering-based empirical mode decomposition (TVFEMD), sample entropy (SE)-based subseries recombination, and the newly developed deep sequential structure incorporating convolutional neural network (CNN) into a gated recurrent unit network (GRU) is proposed for monthly runoff forecasting. Firstly, the runoff series is disintegrated into a collection of subseries adopting TVFEMD, considering the volatility of runoff series caused by complex environmental and human factors. The subseries recombination strategy based on SE and recombination criterion is employed to reconstruct the subseries possessing the approximate complexity. Subsequently, the newly developed deep sequential structure based on CNN and GRU (CNNGRU) is applied to predict all the preprocessed subseries. Eventually, the predicted values obtained above are aggregated to deduce the ultimate prediction results. To testify to the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed approach, eight relevant contrastive models were applied to the monthly runoff series collected from Baishan reservoir, where the experimental results demonstrated that the evaluation metrics obtained by the proposed model achieved an average index decrease of 44.35% compared with all the contrast models.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document