A Novel Hybridization of ARIMA, ANN, and K-Means for Time Series Forecasting

2022 ◽  
pp. 1532-1558
Author(s):  
Warut Pannakkong ◽  
Van-Hai Pham ◽  
Van-Nam Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Prediction Capability

This article aims to propose a novel hybrid forecasting model involving autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and k-means clustering. The single models and k-means clustering are used to build the hybrid forecasting models in different levels of complexity (i.e. ARIMA; hybrid model of ARIMA and ANNs; and hybrid model of k-means, ARIMA, and ANN). To obtain the final forecasting value, the forecasted values of these three models are combined with the weights generated from the discount mean square forecast error (DMSFE) method. The proposed model is applied to three well-known data sets: Wolf's sunspot, Canadian lynx and the exchange rate (British pound to US dollar) to evaluate the prediction capability in three measures (i.e. MSE, MAE, and MAPE). In addition, the prediction performance of the proposed model is compared to ARIMA; ANNs; Khashei and Bijari's model; and the hybrid model of k-means, ARIMA, and ANN. The obtained results show that the proposed model gives the best performance in MSE, MAE, and MAPE for all three data sets.

A Novel Hybridization of ARIMA, ANN, and K-Means for Time Series Forecasting

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 30-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warut Pannakkong ◽  
Van-Hai Pham ◽  
Van-Nam Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Prediction Capability

This article aims to propose a novel hybrid forecasting model involving autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and k-means clustering. The single models and k-means clustering are used to build the hybrid forecasting models in different levels of complexity (i.e. ARIMA; hybrid model of ARIMA and ANNs; and hybrid model of k-means, ARIMA, and ANN). To obtain the final forecasting value, the forecasted values of these three models are combined with the weights generated from the discount mean square forecast error (DMSFE) method. The proposed model is applied to three well-known data sets: Wolf's sunspot, Canadian lynx and the exchange rate (British pound to US dollar) to evaluate the prediction capability in three measures (i.e. MSE, MAE, and MAPE). In addition, the prediction performance of the proposed model is compared to ARIMA; ANNs; Khashei and Bijari's model; and the hybrid model of k-means, ARIMA, and ANN. The obtained results show that the proposed model gives the best performance in MSE, MAE, and MAPE for all three data sets.

scholarly journals Forecasting Time Series Movement Direction with Hybrid Methodology

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salwa Waeto ◽  
Khanchit Chuarkham ◽  
Arthit Intarasit
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Movement Direction ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Hybrid Methodology

Forecasting the tendencies of time series is a challenging task which gives better understanding. The purpose of this paper is to present the hybrid model of support vector regression associated with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average which is formulated by hybrid methodology. The proposed model is more convenient for practical usage. The tendencies modeling of time series for Thailand’s south insurgency is of interest in this research article. The empirical results using the time series of monthly number of deaths, injuries, and incidents for Thailand’s south insurgency indicate that the proposed hybrid model is an effective way to construct an estimated hybrid model which is better than the classical time series model or support vector regression. The best forecast accuracy is performed by using mean square error.

Hybrid approach combining EMD, ARIMA and monte carlo for multi-step ahead medical tourism forecasting

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Nuzhat Fatema ◽  
H Malik ◽  
Mutia Sobihah Binti Abd Halim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Medical Tourism ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Intelligent Approach

This paper proposed a hybrid intelligent approach based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods for multi-step ahead medical tourism (MT) forecasting using explanatory input variables based on two decade real-time recorded database. In the proposed hybrid model, these variables are 1st extracted then medical tourism is forecasted to perform the long term as well as the short term goal and planning in the nation. The multi-step ahead medical tourism is forecasted recursively, by utilizing the 1st forecasted value as the input variable to generate the next forecasting value and this procedure is continued till third step ahead forecasted value. The proposed approach firstly tested and validated by using international tourism arrival (ITA) dataset then proposed approach is implemented for forecasting of medical tourism arrival in nation. In order to validate the performance and accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, a comparative analysis is performed by using Monte Carlo method and the results are compared. Obtained results shows that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach for medical tourism has outperformance characteristics.

scholarly journals Dependence structure analysis of multisite river inflow data using vine copula-CEEMDAN based hybrid model

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e10285
Author(s):  
Hafiza Mamona Nazir ◽  
Ijaz Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Faisal ◽  
Alaa Mohamd Shoukry ◽  
Mohammed Abdel Wahab Sharkawy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
River Inflow ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Vine Copula

Several data-driven and hybrid models are univariate and not considered the dependance structure of multivariate random variables, especially the multi-site river inflow data, which requires the joint distribution of the same river basin system. In this paper, we proposed a Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) Vine copula-based approach to address this issue. The proposed hybrid model comprised on two stages: In the first stage, the CEEMDAN is used to extract the high dimensional multi-scale features. Further, the multiple models are used to predict multi-scale components and residuals. In the second stage, the residuals obtained from the first stage are used to model the joint uncertainty of multi-site river inflow data by using Canonical Vine. For the application of the proposed two-step architecture, daily river inflow data of the Indus River Basin is used. The proposed two-stage methodology is compared with only the first stage proposed model, Vector Autoregressive and copula-based Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. The four evaluation measures, that is, Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Mean Square Error (MSE), are used to observe the prediction performance. The results demonstrated that the proposed model outperforms significantly with minimum MARE, MAD, NSE, and MSE for two case studies having significant joint dependance. Therefore, it is concluded that the prediction can be improved by appropriately modeling the dependance structure of the multi-site river inflow data.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Milk Production in Northern Thailand Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Error Trend Seasonality, and Hybrid Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veerasak Punyapornwithaya ◽  
Katechan Jampachaisri ◽  
Kunnanut Klaharn ◽  
Chalutwan Sansamur
Keyword(s):  
Milk Production ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Time Series Forecast ◽  
Forecast Models

Milk production in Thailand has increased rapidly, though excess milk supply is one of the major concerns. Forecasting can reveal the important information that can support authorities and stakeholders to establish a plan to compromise the oversupply of milk. The aim of this study was to forecast milk production in the northern region of Thailand using time-series forecast methods. A single-technique model, including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and error trend seasonality (ETS), and a hybrid model of SARIMA-ETS were applied to milk production data to develop forecast models. The performance of the models developed was compared using several error matrices. Results showed that milk production was forecasted to raise by 3.2 to 3.6% annually. The SARIMA-ETS hybrid model had the highest forecast performances compared with other models, and the ETS outperformed the SARIMA in predictive ability. Furthermore, the forecast models highlighted a continuously increasing trend with evidence of a seasonal fluctuation for future milk production. The results from this study emphasizes the need for an effective plan and strategy to manage milk production to alleviate a possible oversupply. Policymakers and stakeholders can use our forecasts to develop short- and long-term strategies for managing milk production.

scholarly journals Air Pollutants Prediction in Shenzhen Based on ARIMA and Prophet Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 136 ◽  
pp. 05001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziyuan Ye
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Mixing Time ◽  
Quality Monitoring ◽  
Air Quality Monitoring ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Air Quality Monitoring Stations

In order to improve the accuracy of predicting the air pollutants in Shenzhen, a hybrid model based on ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) and prophet for mixing time and space relationships was proposed. First, ARIMA and Prophet method were applied to train the data from 11 air quality monitoring stations and gave them different weights. Then, finished the calculation about weight of impact in each air quality monitoring station to final results. Finally, built up the hybrid model and did the error evaluation. The result of the experiments illustrated that this hybrid method can improve the air pollutants prediction in Shenzhen.

Hybrid Neural Models For Rice Yields Times Forecasting

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruhaidah Samsudin ◽  
Puteh Saad ◽  
Ani Shabri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Rice Yields ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

In this paper, time series prediction is considered as a problem of missing value. A model for the determination of the missing time series value is presented. The hybrid model integrating autoregressive intergrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed to solve this problem. The developed models attempts to incorporate the linear characteristics of an ARIMA model and nonlinear patterns of ANN to create a hybrid model. In this study, time series modeling of rice yield data in Muda Irrigation area. Malaysia from 1995 to 2003 are considered. Experimental results with rice yields data sets indicate that the hybrid model improve the forecasting performance by either of the models used separately. Key words: ARIMA; Box and Jenkins; neural networks; rice yields; hybrid ANN model

The Forecasting of the Elevator Traffic Flow Time Series Based on ARIMA and GP

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 1466-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Fang Li ◽  
Qun Zong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Flow Time ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

As one of the conventional statistical methods, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Artificial neural network (ANN) can be utilized to construct more accurate forecasting model than ARIMA for nonlinear time series, but it is difficult to explain the meaning of the hidden layers of ANN and it does not produce a mathematical equation. In this study, by combining ARIMA with genetic programming (GP), a hybrid forecasting model will be used for elevator traffic flow time series which can improve the accuracy both the GP and the ARIMA forecasting models separately. At last, simulations are adopted to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed ARIMA-GP forecasting model.

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