An Application of CREAM for Human Reliability Analysis in Power System Switching Operation

2014 ◽  
Vol 584-586 ◽  
pp. 2585-2588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Xi Tang ◽  
Ying Kai Bao ◽  
Li Cheng Wang ◽  
Chuang Xin Guo ◽  
Wen Hai Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Switching Operation ◽  
Equipment Reliability ◽  
System Switching ◽  
Human Error Probability

Reliability is always one of the most focal points for the power system researchers. With the improvement of equipment reliability, human error has become a great threat to the power system security. But the human reliability analysis in power system does not get as much attention as it perhaps deserve. As a representative HRA method, the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is cited in this paper. And it is applied to evaluate the human error probability of a simple switching operation case. This practice is a beneficial attempt to introduce HRA method into the power system reliability research and lay a foundation for the further explorations.

HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS PADA OPERATOR GRINDING DAN WELDING GALANGAN KAPAL DENGAN PENDEKATAN COGNITIVE RELIABILITY AND ERROR ANALYSIS METHOD (CREAM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-65
Author(s):  
Satria Bagus Shaputra Satria ◽  
Nuzulia Khoiriyah ◽  
Wiwiek Fatmawati
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Basic Method ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis

Abstrak, Daftar kasus kecelakaan kerja di galagan kapal yang terjadi selama 8 tahun terakhir dengan jumlah kasus tertinggi pada proses pekerjaan grinding dan welding. Kasus kecelakaan kerja tersebut disebabkan oleh kesalahan manusia atau human error. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Cogitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) untuk memprediksi dan mengurangi terjadinya human error. Pada metode ini dilakukan dengan dua cara yaitu basic method yang berfungsi untuk hanya mendapatkan nilai probabilitas kegagalan secara umum, sedangkan extend method berfungsi untuk mendapatkan nilai probabilitas kegagalan kognitif pada setiap task. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang menurunkan keandalan operator dan mempengaruhi timbulnya human error pada operator grinding dan welding adalah faktor kondisi pekerjaan dan waktu dalam hari saat pekerjaan berlangsung. Nilai probabilitas error tertinggi pada proses pekerjaan grinding dan welding terdapat pada aspek kognitif interpretation, dengan masing-masing nilai CFP pada proses grinding yaitu sebesar 0,024 dan pada proses welding 0,006. Usulan perbaikan untuk mengurangi probabilitas human error pada proses grinding dan welding adalah pada kondisi pekerjaan dengan membutuhkan penerangan yang cukup saat bekerja didalam kapal, membutuhkan sirkulasi udara yang baik saat bekerja didalam kapal, dan membutuhkan peningkatan pengawasan kepada operator agar operator dapat bekerja dengan aman dan disiplin dalam bekerja. Serta membutuhkan pengoptimalan manajemen waktu dalam bekerja, agar operator dapat bekerja dengan baik dan memiliki waktu istirahat yang cukup.   Kata kunci : Human Error, Cogitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), Human Realiability Analysis (HRA).

Human Reliability, Experience and Error Probability: A New Benchmark

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romney B. Duffey ◽  
Tae Sung Ha
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Error Probability ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Learning Hypothesis ◽  
Independent Assessment ◽  
Human Error Probability

In this paper, we apply a totally new approach to benchmark human reliability analysis, which is derived directly from the Universal Learning Curve (ULC) for homo-technological system (HTS) outcomes. We compare the latest second-generation predictions, based on the well-known and proven learning hypothesis, against some of the common Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods used to date for analyzing human reliability in transient and accident analysis. Therefore, we provide a straightforward, general and simple methodology for evaluating and predicting the Human Error Probability (HEP) in transients for accident risk prediction and reduction, as validated against all the available data, producing a completely independent assessment of the uncertainty.

scholarly journals Human reliability analysis in de-energization of power line using HEART in the context of Z-numbers

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0253827
Author(s):  
Hamed Aghaei ◽  
Mostafa Mirzaei Aliabadi ◽  
Farzaneh Mollabahrami ◽  
Kamran Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Power Line ◽  
Electricity Distribution ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Straightforward Method ◽  
Human Error Probability

Investigation reveals that a high percentage of incident causes are ascribed to some forms of human error. To effectively prevent incidents from happening, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), as a structured way to represent unintentional operator contribution to system reliability, is a critical issue. Human Error Reduction and Assessment Technique (HEART) as a famous HRA technique, provides a straightforward method to estimate probabilities of human error based on the analysis of tasks. However, it faces varying levels of uncertainty in assigning of weights to each error producing condition (EPC), denoted as assessed proportion of affect (APOA), by experts. To overcome this limitation and consider the confidence level (reliability or credibility) of the experts, the current study aimed at proposing a composite HEART methodology for human error probability (HEP) assessment, which integrates HEART and Z-numbers short for, Z-HEART. The applicability and effectiveness of the Z-HEART has been illustrated in the de-energization power line as a case study. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is fulfilled to investigate the validity of the proposed methodology. It can be concluded that Z-HEART is feasible for assessing human error, and despite the methodological contributions, it offers many advantages for electricity distribution companies.

scholarly journals Performer selection in Human Reliability analysis: D numbers approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhao ◽  
Yong Deng
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Experimental Result ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
D Numbers ◽  
Human Error Probability

Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an significant issue. Many previous works discussed the factors influencing the dependence level but failed to discuss how these factors like "similarity of performers" determine the final result. In this paper, the influence of performers on HRA is focused, in addition, a new way of D numbers which is usually used to handle with the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems is introduced as well to determine the optimal performer. Experimental result demonstrates the validity of proposed methods in choosing the best performers with lowest the conditional human error probability (CHEP) under the same circumstance.

A Human Reliability Analysis to Crankshaft Overhauling in Dry-Docking of a General Cargo Ship

2020 ◽  
pp. 147509022094833
Author(s):  
Samet Bicen ◽  
Cagatay Kandemir ◽  
Metin Celik
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Task Type ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Safety Issues ◽  
Immediate Recovery ◽  
General Cargo

This study conducts a practical application of shipboard operation human reliability analysis (SOHRA) to a crankshaft overhauling operation of a general cargo ship at dry-docking period. The SOHRA approach includes error producing condition (EPC) and general task type (GTT) parameters to consistently calculate the human error probability (HEP) values of operation steps. In this case, a comprehensive overhauling of main engine was planned at shipyard since the ship has experienced a catastrophic failure. An onboard survey to ship engine room is conducted to monitor the operational conditions. The targeted operation, involves disassembly, maintenance, and reassembly stages, is monitored based on 39 sub-tasks. According to the initial findings, immediate recovery actions are suggested to eliminate critical safety issues in a timely manner. Moreover, an extended discussion through long-term safety recommendations are also provided. The results revealed from case study illustrates that HEP values in maintenance operations are sensitive to ship operating conditions. The proposed approach is found very useful by company executives to support ship technical superintendents in critical operation monitoring. The further study is considered to develop mobile application of SOHRA specific to maintenance operations onboard ships.

UNCERTAINTY OF HUMAN ERROR AND FUZZY APPROACH TO HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 111-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. KIM ◽  
RAM R. BISHU
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Fuzzy Approach ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Approach

Human error is regarded as a critical factor in catastrophic accidents such as disasters at nuclear power plants, air plane crashes, or derailed trains. Several taxonomies for human errors and methodologies for human reliability analysis (HRA) have been proposed in the literature. Generally, human errors have been modeled on the basis of probabilistic concepts with or without the consideration of cognitive aspects of human behaviors. Modeling of human errors through probabilistic approaches has shown a limitation on quantification of qualitative aspects of human errors and complexity of attributes from circumstances involved. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the methodologies for human reliability analysis and introduce a fuzzy logic approach to the evaluation of human interacting system's reliability. Fuzzy approach could be used to estimate human error effects under ambiguous interacting environments and assist in the design of error free work environments.

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