Research on Foronline Short-Term Risk Assessment of Power System with Fast and Accurate Analysis Method Based on State Space Division

2014 ◽  
Vol 1003 ◽  
pp. 140-147
Author(s):  
Hai Nan Li ◽  
Jian Hua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
State Space ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Space Division ◽  
Sorting Technique ◽  
System States ◽  
Importance Sampling Technique

This paper proposed a state space division method to assess the online short-term risk of power system fast and accurately. This method divided all the possible operation system states into two mutually complementary subspaces according to the occurrence probability. In order to shorten the time-consuming, different method was used to calculate the risk of each subspace. Analytical method (AM) was used to calculate the risk of the first subspace comprised with the large occurrence probability states, which was identified using the Fast Sorting Technique (FST). System states that have a small occurrence probability comprised the second subspace, whose risk was calculated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) combined with the adaptive importance sampling technique (AIST) and scattered sampling technique (SST). Through the case studies conducted on the MRTS, it is validated that the proposed method can assess the online short-term risk fast and accurately.

Reliability Assessment of Power System Using Importance Sampling Technique Based on Layer Optimization Simulation

2011 ◽  
Vol 88-89 ◽  
pp. 554-558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power System ◽  
Importance Sampling ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Test System ◽  
Importance Sampling Method ◽  
Importance Sampling Technique

An improved importance sampling method with layer simulation optimization is presented in this paper. Through the solution sequence of the components’ optimum biased factors according to their importance degree to system reliability, the presented technique can further accelerate the convergence speed of the Monte-Carlo simulation. The idea is that the multivariate distribution’ optimization of components in power system is transferred to many steps’ optimization based on importance sampling method with different optimum biased factors. The practice is that the components are layered according to their importance degree to the system reliability before the Monte-Carlo simulation, the more forward, the more important, and the optimum biased factors of components in the latest layer is searched while the importance sampling is carried out until the demanded accuracy is reached. The validity of the presented is verified using the IEEE-RTS79 test system.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Model to Forecast the Time Series Kinetic Energy Data for a Power System

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3299
Author(s):  
Ashish Shrestha ◽  
Bishal Ghimire ◽  
Francisco Gonzalez-Longatt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Power System ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Power Converter ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Short Term

Withthe massive penetration of electronic power converter (EPC)-based technologies, numerous issues are being noticed in the modern power system that may directly affect system dynamics and operational security. The estimation of system performance parameters is especially important for transmission system operators (TSOs) in order to operate a power system securely. This paper presents a Bayesian model to forecast short-term kinetic energy time series data for a power system, which can thus help TSOs to operate a respective power system securely. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used as a No-U-Turn sampler and Stan’s limited-memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (LM-BFGS) algorithm is used as the optimization method here. The concept of decomposable time series modeling is adopted to analyze the seasonal characteristics of datasets, and numerous performance measurement matrices are used for model validation. Besides, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to compare the results of the presented model. At last, the optimal size of the training dataset is identified, which is required to forecast the 30-min values of the kinetic energy with a low error. In this study, one-year univariate data (1-min resolution) for the integrated Nordic power system (INPS) are used to forecast the kinetic energy for sequences of 30 min (i.e., short-term sequences). Performance evaluation metrics such as the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) of the proposed model are calculated here to be 4.67, 3.865, 0.048, and 8.15, respectively. In addition, the performance matrices can be improved by up to 3.28, 2.67, 0.034, and 5.62, respectively, by increasing MCMC sampling. Similarly, 180.5 h of historic data is sufficient to forecast short-term results for the case study here with an accuracy of 1.54504 for the RMSE.

scholarly journals Action Recognition Network Using Stacked Short-Term Deep Features and Bidirectional Moving Average

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5563
Author(s):  
Jinsol Ha ◽  
Joongchol Shin ◽  
Hasil Park ◽  
Joonki Paik
Keyword(s):  
Action Recognition ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Video Clip ◽  
Visual Surveillance ◽  
Temporal Information ◽  
Feature Maps ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Difference Images

Action recognition requires the accurate analysis of action elements in the form of a video clip and a properly ordered sequence of the elements. To solve the two sub-problems, it is necessary to learn both spatio-temporal information and the temporal relationship between different action elements. Existing convolutional neural network (CNN)-based action recognition methods have focused on learning only spatial or temporal information without considering the temporal relation between action elements. In this paper, we create short-term pixel-difference images from the input video, and take the difference images as an input to a bidirectional exponential moving average sub-network to analyze the action elements and their temporal relations. The proposed method consists of: (i) generation of RGB and differential images, (ii) extraction of deep feature maps using an image classification sub-network, (iii) weight assignment to extracted feature maps using a bidirectional, exponential, moving average sub-network, and (iv) late fusion with a three-dimensional convolutional (C3D) sub-network to improve the accuracy of action recognition. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a higher performance level than existing baseline methods. In addition, the proposed action recognition network takes only 0.075 seconds per action class, which guarantees various high-speed or real-time applications, such as abnormal action classification, human–computer interaction, and intelligent visual surveillance.

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