Study on Early-Warning and Forecasting System of Real Estate

2011 ◽  
Vol 403-408 ◽  
pp. 2473-2476
Author(s):  
Ji Jun Xiao ◽  
Xiao Jun Liu ◽  
Zhi Jian Gao
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Statistical Control ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
System A ◽  
Forecasting System

This paper presents the real estate early-warning and forecasting system developed to monitor and provide pre-warning to the user decision makers in the property market. The paper analyses essential factors affecting the real estate market, and build the conceptual model of the real estate early-warning and forecasting system. A statistical control 3 sigma criteria method has been developed, which can provide to compute the warning limit. In addition, the system framework model has been developed, which can provide a development idea to further design this system.

scholarly journals The Application of Spatial Analysis Methods in the Real Estate Market in South‑Eastern Poland

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (333) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorota Dejniak
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Graphical Form ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Estate Property

The aim of the article is to apply the method of spatial analysis to research the real estate property market in south‑eastern Poland. The methods of spatial statistics will be used to model the space differences of prices per one square metre of dwelling surface located in districts of south‑eastern Poland and to investigate spatial autocorrelation. The databases will be presented in a graphical form. The results may be used to set the spatial regularities and relations. The methods presented may be applied while making strategic decisions.

Cyclical capitalization and lag vacancy

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio d’Amato
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Valuation Process

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017). Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market. Findings The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase. Research limitations/implications Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market. Practical implications The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market. Social implications The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination. Originality/value These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

scholarly journals The Problem of Competition on Real Estate Market on the Example of the Local Housing Market in Olsztyn

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Kuryj-Wysocka ◽  
Radosław Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Competition ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Fundamental Principle ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Abstract In the economic theory, competition is considered to be a fundamental principle of the free market. Due to the competition, customers get lower prices, better service quality, more and more choices. The competition in the real estate market is a very important factor in its development. Buying or selling real estate is often one of the most important financial transactions, which require the purchaser. With the reference to the above, the participants of the real estate market need to analyse a number of transactions and do a detailed understanding of the market before making a decision and finding a deal that meets all the expectations which will not be diverging significantly from remaining offers functioning in the given area of the market. The phenomenon of competition is very advantageous for buyers of a real estate, because it shows a wide range of various possibilities which one should consider before making a final choice. Times of crisis trigger a tendency of the growing competition in the property market, what results in a decrease in real estate prices. This article brings up the issue of price and non-price competition on the real estate market and the influence which it exerts on the decision of the purchaser. The aim of this paper is to present the phenomenon of the competition at three levels (levels), by examining what relationship occurs between the entities functioning on the market, what occurs between entities and objects, and how the entities, i.e. individual real estate, compete with each other. This study will be conducted with methods of statistical analysis of the market, however Herfindahl-Hirschman Index will be used to measure competition on the local real estate market.

scholarly journals Calendar Effects on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka ◽  
Radosław Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Behavioral Sciences ◽  
The Real ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Seasonal Diversity

Abstract Social and economic phenomena that rely on "soft" factors to explain the market reality supply highly valuable observations. Behavioral elements should not be omitted in analyses of the real estate market because the latest developments in behavioral sciences significantly contribute to our understanding of this market. The popularity of behavioral research in social and economic sciences provokes an examination of the significance of behavioral analyses on the real estate market. As an object of social and economic inquiry, the property market can benefit from recent achievements in behavioral sciences which expand the explanatory potential of studies based on the neoclassical model. This paper analyzes calendar anomalies, generally referred to as calendar effects, on the real estate market. This phenomenon has been observed on the capital market and has been investigated and described by behavioral finance. The research hypothesis tested in this study is that calendar effects are present on the real estate market. This paper aims to: 1) review calendar effects as model phenomena on the real estate market, 2) determine whether calendar effects occur on the real estate market and, if so, identify those anomalies, 3) determine whether and to what extent the real estate market is governed by seasonal diversity, 4) explain the significance of calendar effects to the real estate market. Research goals were pursued based on analyses of real estate transactions conducted in Olsztyn between 2004 and 2011.

scholarly journals A new frontier in construction investments: Data Centres and technical factors affecting risk profile

2018 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 06009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Bellintani ◽  
Gianandrea Ciaramella ◽  
Alberto Celani
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Minimum Quality Standards ◽  
Data Centres

The interest of Construction investors towards Data Centres is a novelty that however is not supported by an adequate level of knowledge of the technical characteristics that distinguish this particular building type. In fact, these are complex buildings, which are rarely dealt with in the literature (real estate and construction) and very different from the typical asset class of the real estate market, for which it requires a very high level of specialization. From an investor's point of view, although there are some reference standards that define some minimum quality standards, we need to widen our attention, focusing on all the technical / technological factors that influence the business model. The paper deals with this problem, trying to identify the different elements that influence the risk profile of the investment (thus omitting risk factors of another kind) and structuring them in clusters. Specifically, the paper focuses on the cost factors (passive cycle of the business model) that accompany the investment or the real estate asset “data centres” in its life cycle.

Die Macht der Zahlen

2015 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Bitterer ◽  
Susanne Heeg
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Local Characteristics ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Calculative Practices

The power of figures. Calculative practices in the real estate industry. This article examines the role and importance of calculative practices in the process of establishing a global property market. We argue that these practices have contributed to the transformation of the property market into a calculable relation which makes it possible to perceive and assess the real estate market and its objects internationally. Comparability - which includes the transformation of social, political and economic conditions into numbers - has created the context in which investment decisions take place because they suggest transparency and calculability. These practices are created and shared in a network of global real estate professionals and go along with strategies of territorializing and delineating markets. Yet, as we will argue, some local characteristics prove to be persistent and difficult to handle in global calculations. Thus, assessing global real estate markets still implies the challenge to combine local knowledge and global calculation.

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Елена Евгеньевна Тимофеева ◽  
Юлия Евгеньевна Острякова
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Housing Estate ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
State Programs

Доступность жилья является очень многогранным понятием, отражающим социально-экономические процессы, происходящие в обществе, учитывающее ожидания населения и его доходы. Проведен анализ факторов, определяющих ценовую политику в секторе недвижимости. Выявленные факторы разделены на две группы: объективные и субъективные. К группе объективных факторов отнесены такие, которые зависят от макроэкономической ситуации, ситуации на рынке недвижимости и факторы, на которые не могут повлиять домохозяйства. К субъективным отнесены факторы, которые зависят от особенностей самих домохозяйств или могут быть ими изменены. Показано, что влияние выявленных факторов необходимо рассматривать комплексно, что обусловлено их взаимосвязью и непропорциональной взаимозависимостью. На примере мониторинга цен для Иваново показан существенный разброс цен в сегменте жилья как эконом-класса, так и бизнес-класса. Проведены примеры анализа влияния различных факторов на формирование стоимости жилья в различных категориях. Предложено разделение понятий доступное жилье» и «доступное комфортное жилье». В частности, при расчете критериев доступности жилья (независимо от методики расчета) следует брать в расчет среднюю цену за наиболее экономичные варианты новостроек. Приводится обоснование важности участия государства в формировании доступного жилья за счет регулирования доходов граждан, а также внедрения государственных программ поддержки граждан по приобретению жилья. Housing affordability is a very multifaceted concept that reflects the socio-economic processes in society, which take into account the expectations of the population and its income. We carried out analysis of the factors determining the pricing policy in the real estate sector. All identified factors are divided into two groups: objective and subjective. The group of objective factors included those ones that depend on the macroeconomic situation, the situation in the real estate market and which cannot be influenced by households. Subjective factors include the ones that depend on the households or can be changed by them. We show that the influence of the identified factors must be considered comprehensively, which is due to their interrelation and disproportionate interdependence. On the example of price monitoring for the city of Ivanovo (Russia), we demonstrate a significant variation in prices in the segment of housing estate, both economy and business class. We give some examples of the analysis of various factors influence on the formation of cost of housing estate in various categories. We offer differentiation of the concepts of affordable housing estate and affordable comfortable housing . In particular, when calculating the criteria for housing affordability (regardless of the calculation method), the average price for the most economical options for new buildings should be taken into account. As well we offer substantiation of the importance of state participation in the formation of affordable housing estate both by regulating the income of citizens and by introduction of state programs to support citizens in home buying.

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