The main objective of this study is to investigate the short and the long run relationships between export performance proxied by export volume index and real effective exchange rate changes in Turkey using the aggregated quarterly data sets covering the period of 1995-2012. The other factors that are expected to affect export performance such as wage, foreign income, productivity, trend GDP and exchange rate volatility are also added to the model. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is performed in the estimation process. The causalities among the variables in the model are determined based on the estimated ARDL models. The empirical results reveal that the variables of interest are cointegrated. Real effective exchange rate coefficient is significantly positive in the short run whereas negative in the long run and exchange rate volatility has no significant effect on export performance in contrast with theoretical expectations. Other evidences indicate that the recent export boom in Turkey can be explained by wages, productivity and world demand, rather than exchange rate changes. Consequently, findings suggest that policies that depressing wages and stimulating high productivity can help export sectors increase their export volume and competitiveness in Turkey.
Real Effective Exchange Rate and Export Performance: The Case of Sri Lanka