scholarly journals Turkey’s Export Performance: Examining the Main Determinants of Export Volume (1995-2012)

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcılar ◽  
Harun Bal ◽  
Neşe Algan ◽  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Volume Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The main objective of this study is to investigate the short and the long run relationships between export performance proxied by export volume index and real effective exchange rate changes in Turkey using the aggregated quarterly data sets covering the period of 1995-2012. The other factors that are expected to affect export performance such as wage, foreign income, productivity, trend GDP and exchange rate volatility are also added to the model. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is performed in the estimation process. The causalities among the variables in the model are determined based on the estimated ARDL models. The empirical results reveal that the variables of interest are cointegrated. Real effective exchange rate coefficient is significantly positive in the short run whereas negative in the long run and exchange rate volatility has no significant effect on export performance in contrast with theoretical expectations. Other evidences indicate that the recent export boom in Turkey can be explained by wages, productivity and world demand, rather than exchange rate changes. Consequently, findings suggest that policies that depressing wages and stimulating high productivity can help export sectors increase their export volume and competitiveness in Turkey.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility On Non-Traditional Exports In Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2017) ◽  
pp. 80-103
Author(s):  
Camara Kwasi Obeng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The government of Ghana has implemented a number of policies to strengthen the production and export of non-traditional products as a way of diversifying exports in Ghana with very little success. Foremost among these policies is the liberalization of exchange rate. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has been very volatile. The study, therefore, examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in Ghana.This study employed Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration estimation technique for the investigation. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility negatively impacts Ghana’s non-traditional exports. Also, the effect is greater in the long- run than it is in the short-run. Other results also show that world income, growth rate of the economy and Treasury bill rate promote non-traditional exports, but real effective exchange rate does not. The value of the paper lies in the discussion of the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in the Ghanaian context.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

scholarly journals Cointegration Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Exports in Turkey: an Ardl Approch

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1180-1185
Author(s):  
Turgut Orman ◽  
İlkay Dellal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to reveal the impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports of Turkey by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. While quarterly time series data covering period of 2001: Q1 to 2018: Q4 were used to carry out analyses, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (1.1) is used to acquire exchange rate volatility series. The research findings showed that agricultural export is cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, producer price index and real effective exchange rate. Furthermore, our findings indicate that increases in real effective exchange rate have a statistically significant positive influence on the export volume whereas exchange rate volatility has negative impact on it.

scholarly journals Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Misalignment: The Sierra Leone Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Abu Bakarr TARAWALIE
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This paper estimates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate and determine the level of exchange rate misalignment in Sierra Leone, for the period 1980 to 2018. The paper utilizes the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate methodology within the Johansen maximum likelihood framework to estimate the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate. The unit root test result shows that all the variables are integrated of order one, whilst the cointegration test establishes the existence of one cointegrating vector as evidenced by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen Statistics. The normalized long run results reveal that openness, government expenditure and money supply were the most significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the real effective exchange rate experienced sustained deviation from the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate during the study period, with episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate was overvalued by 3.69 percent during the period between 1980-1985; undervalued by 1.8 percent between 1986-1997, and overvalued by 0.9 percent between 1998-2004, Thus, the paper reveals episodes of misalignment of the real effective exchange rate. Based on these findings, the study recommends that, the monetary authorities should ensure stability of the exchange rate and maintain price stability, through sterilization of capital flows as well as contain money growth within the statutory limit.

scholarly journals Different Approaches to Merchandise Trade Balance in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Yousuf Aboya ◽  
Arsalan Hussain ◽  
Rohail Hassan ◽  
Hassan Mujtaba Nawaz Saleem ◽  
Aamir Hussain Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Merchandise Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The current study empirically examines the three major approaches to trade balance for Pakistan by utilizing the yearly data from 1972 to 2016. Monetary, elasticity, and absorption approaches were tested by developing a model that incorporates all three approaches. The significant contribution of the study is that it uses only the merchandise trade deficit account, which includes trade of only physical goods. The study used time-series data; therefore, variables have been tested for the stationarity, and it is found that there is a combination of I (0) and I (1) variables, so ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration has been employed to find the short run and long run associations among the variables. The bound test results discovered that there is a presence of stable long-term association among the merchandise trade deficit account, real broad money supply, real effective exchange rate, and real domestic absorption. The results further revealed that merchandise trade discrepancy is determined purely by the real effective exchange rate, which specifies that the exchange rate's devaluation increases the deficit in the long run whereas in the short-run increase in domestic absorption decreases the merchandise trade deficit.

Business Confidence and Business Tourism in Japan

2020 ◽  
pp. 2150003
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration ◽  
Trade Index

This study explored the asymmetric impact of business confidence index (BCI), real effective exchange rate, inflation, the value of trade index and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on inbound business tourism in Japan using the methodology of asymmetric cointegration. The paper uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds test procedure to obtain the long-run cointegrating relationship. The estimated NARDL results show that in the long-run, the negative asymmetric impact of the BCI is stronger than the positive impact. Finally, the study confirms that for the long-run, asymmetric relation exists between tourism, BCI, real effective exchange rate, inflation, GDP and value of trade index.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document