scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity: The Asymmetric Cointegration Approach in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ntokozo Nzimande ◽  
Simiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

This study examines the link between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gross domestic product in the context of South Africa. The study employs the asymmetric approach proposed by Schorderet (2004) and advanced by Lardic and Mignon (2008). Asymmetric cointegration is used because it is believed that increasing and decreasing oil prices do not have similar or equal impacts on economic activity. In this study we document evidence for an asymmetric response of economic activity to oil price shocks. Further, our findings suggest that negative oil price shocks are important relative to positive oil price shocks.

scholarly journals INTRODUCTION TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (S3) ◽  
pp. 327-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apostolos Serletis ◽  
John Elder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Predictive Content ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
True Relationship

The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. Hamilton (1983) showed that oil prices had significant predictive content for real economic activity in the United States prior to 1972, whereas Hooker (1996) argued that the estimated linear relations between oil prices and economic activity appear much weaker after 1973. In the debate that followed, several authors suggested that the apparent weakening of the relationship between oil prices and economic activity is illusory, arguing that the true relationship between oil prices and real economic activity is asymmetric, with the correlation between oil price decreases and output significantly different from the correlation between oil price increases and output—see, for example, Mork (1989) and Hamilton (2003).

scholarly journals The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Activity in Saudi Arabia: Econometric Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goblan J Algahtani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Econometric Approach

<p>This paper is attempt to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the Saudi's economic activity using annual data (1970-2015) to cover all of oil price shocks; particularly the recent decline in oil prices amid 2014. The vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction model (VECM) were utilized to investigate the long-run and the short-run relationships between variables. The findings suggest a positive and significant relationship between oil prices and the Saudi's GDP in the long run. </p><p> </p>

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

scholarly journals The effect of oil price shocks on economic activity: a local projections approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 708-723
Author(s):  
Mirko Abbritti ◽  
Juan Equiza-Goñi ◽  
Fernando Perez de Gracia ◽  
Tommaso Trani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Local Projections

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

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