Projection of Future Changes in Elephant Population in Amboseli under Representative Concentration Pathways

Mean sea-level is expected to rise significantly by 2100 in all scenarios, including those compatible with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Global sea level rise projections indicate devastating implications for populations, ecosystem services and biodiversity. The implications of the sea-level rise (SLR) on low-lying islands and coastal regions and communities are substantial and require deep-rooted coping measures. In the absence of adequate responses for coping, Mozambique is expected to record huge losses, with an impact on the economy and development in many sectors of its coastal regions mainly in northern Mozambique. This research aimed to perform projections on SLR in Mozambique, and to understand its role and implications on the north coast of the country. SLR was estimated through the analysis of model outputs that support the global estimates of the fifth IPCC report near the Mozambican coast, for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Regional coastline retreat and coastal erosion were estimated through the results of global sandy coastlines projections developed by Vousdoukas. Mean sea-level rise projections indicate that regional estimates for the Mozambican coast are relative higher than global estimates (~0.05 m) for all representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Yet, we highlight significant differences in sea-level rises of 0.5 m, 0.7 m or 1.0 m by 2100 compared to the global mean. It is expected that with the increase in the mean sea level in the northern part of the Mozambican coast, erosive effects will increase, as well as the retreat of the coastline until 2100. With this, the tourism sector, settlements, ecosystem services and local populations are expected to be significantly affected by 2050, with increased threats in 2100 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Local responses for coping are proposed and properly discussed for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios through 2100.

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Social structure and demography of a remnant Asian elephant Elephas maximus population and the implications for survival

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605319000504 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-6

Author(s):

Lauren J. Hale ◽

Kun Shi ◽

Tania C. Gilbert ◽

Kelvin S.-H. Peh ◽

Philip Riordan

Keyword(s):

Social Structure ◽

Population Size ◽

Total Population ◽

Camera Traps ◽

Asian Elephant ◽

Elephas Maximus ◽

Effective Density ◽

Anthropogenic Pressures ◽

Sex Ratio Bias ◽

Elephant Population

Abstract The Asian elephant Elephas maximus is at risk of extinction as a result of anthropogenic pressures, and remaining populations are often small and fragmented remnants, occupying a fraction of the species' former range. Once widely distributed across China, only a maximum of 245 elephants are estimated to survive across seven small populations. We assessed the Asian elephant population in Nangunhe National Nature Reserve in Lincang Prefecture, China, using camera traps during May–July 2017, to estimate the population size and structure of this genetically important population. Although detection probability was low (0.31), we estimated a total population size of c. 20 individuals, and an effective density of 0.39 elephants per km2. Social structure indicated a strong sex ratio bias towards females, with only one adult male detected within the population. Most of the elephants associated as one herd but three adult females remained separate from the herd throughout the trapping period. These results highlight the fragility of remnant elephant populations such as Nangunhe and we suggest options such as a managed metapopulation approach for their continued survival in China and more widely.

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Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

Global and Planetary Change ◽

10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.010 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 122 ◽

pp. 107-121 ◽

Cited By ~ 65

Author(s):

Juraj Balkovič ◽

Marijn van der Velde ◽

Rastislav Skalský ◽

Wei Xiong ◽

Christian Folberth ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wheat Production ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways ◽

Management Flexibility

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Demography of a forest elephant population

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0192777 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. e0192777 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Andrea K. Turkalo ◽

Peter H. Wrege ◽

George Wittemyer

Keyword(s):

Elephant Population ◽

Forest Elephant

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Spatial relationship between elephant and sodium concentration of water disappears as density increases in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

Journal of Tropical Ecology ◽

10.1017/s0266467407004531 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 23 (6) ◽

pp. 725-728 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Simon Chamaillé-Jammes ◽

Hervé Fritz ◽

Ricardo M. Holdo

Keyword(s):

National Park ◽

Spatial Relationship ◽

Sodium Concentration ◽

African Elephants ◽

Mineral Concentration ◽

Savanna Vegetation ◽

Selection Processes ◽

Elephant Population ◽

Hwange National Park ◽

Nutrient Selection

African elephants Loxodonta africana (Blumenbach) may profoundly affect vegetation and associated animal bio-diversity in savannas (Conybeare 2004, Skarpe et al. 2004). Understanding the patterns of habitat use by elephants is crucial to predict their impacts on ecosystems (Ben-Shahar 1993, Nelleman et al. 2002), particularly now that many populations are recovering from past culling events or poaching outbreaks (Blanc et al. 2007). Surface water is one of the major constraints on elephant distribution (Chamaillé-Jammes et al. 2007, Stokke & du Toit 2002), and accordingly, elephant impacts are higher in the vicinity of water (Ben-Shahar 1993, de Beer et al. 2006). However, waterhole selection by elephant remains poorly understood. Weir (1972) showed in Hwange National Park (hereafter Hwange NP), Zimbabwe, that elephant numbers at waterholes over 24 h increased with the sodium concentration of water on nutrient-poor Kalahari sands. His work has become widely cited in elephant studies as it remains the only one, to the best of our knowledge, to have studied elephant use of waterholes in relation to the mineral concentration of water. Weir's work, however, took place when elephant densities in Hwange NP were low, likely below 0.5 elephants km−2 as estimated by aerial censuses (Williamson 1975). Since then, the elephant population has increased dramatically, particularly since the halt to culling operations in 1986 (Chamaillé-Jammes 2006, Cumming 1981). The present elephant density is much higher, estimated to be over 2 elephants km−2 (Chamaillé-Jammes et al. 2007, in press), and is one of the highest in the world (Blanc et al. 2007). Increased density may modify ecological constraints and affect the hierarchy of habitat selection processes (Morris 2003), and the extent to which water-nutrient selection still constrains elephant distribution at high population density – when their impact on savanna vegetation is the highest – remains unknown.

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On the Trails of Free-Roaming Elephants

Transfers ◽

10.3167/trans.2020.10020302 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-21

Author(s):

Paul G. Keil

Keyword(s):

British Empire ◽

Political History ◽

Human Mobility ◽

Human Agency ◽

Northeast India ◽

Mountain Ranges ◽

Migration History ◽

The Social ◽

Elephant Population ◽

History Of

Humans and elephants have historically shared the forested mountain ranges of Zomia, a geography defined by the regular movement of people and an ecology shaped by the movement of its elephant population. This article will examine how free-roaming elephant pathways facilitated human mobility in the highlands defining the Indo-Myanmar border. It will analyze the more-than-human agency that emerges when following elephant trails and the varying role this forest infrastructure might have played in the social and political history of the region. The article will explore two historical examples. First, the migration of a Lisu community in Upper Myanmar who utilized elephant paths to navigate their passage. Second, how the British Empire exploited a network of elephant-human tracks to subjugate the peoples living in Mizoram, northeast India. In these regions the patterns of migration, history of colonization, and identities and practices of communities must be understood in relation to wild elephants.

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Supplementary material to "The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)"

10.5194/acp-2018-510-supplement ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Christopher G. Nolte ◽

Tanya L. Spero ◽

Jared H. Bowden ◽

Megan S. Mallard ◽

Patrick D. Dolwick

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways ◽

Supplementary Material

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Twenty-First-Century Compatible CO2 Emissions and Airborne Fraction Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models under Four Representative Concentration Pathways

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00554.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (13) ◽

pp. 4398-4413 ◽

Cited By ~ 183

Author(s):

Chris Jones ◽

Eddy Robertson ◽

Vivek Arora ◽

Pierre Friedlingstein ◽

Elena Shevliakova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Cycle ◽

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Co2 Concentration ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

System Component ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Carbon Uptake ◽

Earth System ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways

Abstract The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the four scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here, the authors present results from 15 such Earth system GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil-fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions, and future projections for representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate–carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario, an average reduction of 50% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14%–96%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 2°C. All models agree that the future airborne fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne fraction for higher emissions scenarios.

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