scholarly journals Supplementary material to "The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)"

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Nolte ◽  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Megan S. Mallard ◽  
Patrick D. Dolwick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Supplementary Material

scholarly journals The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Nolte ◽  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Megan S. Mallard ◽  
Patrick D. Dolwick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract. The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States are investigated by downscaling Community Earth System Model (CESM) global climate simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, then using the downscaled meteorological fields with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regional climate and air quality change between 2000 and 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated using 11-year time slices from CESM. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases less than 2 K for most regions of the U.S. and most seasons of the year and good representation of the variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern U.S. is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25 %, and positive biases in the western U.S. throughout the year and in part of the eastern U.S. during summer. Maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern U.S. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from −1.0 to 1.0 μg m−3. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Decreases in aerosol nitrate occur during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.

scholarly journals The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 15471-15489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Nolte ◽  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Megan S. Mallard ◽  
Patrick D. Dolwick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract. The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States (US) are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional-scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases of less than 2 K for most regions of the US and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern US is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25 %, with positive biases exceeding 25 % in the western US throughout the year and in part of the eastern US during summer. Maximum daily 8 h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern US. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from −1.0 to 1.0 µg m−3. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.

Current Threats to the Environmental Conditions in Cities of the Eastern Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred A. Lange
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Liquid Waste ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Urban Structures ◽  
Space Cooling

<p>The environmental conditions in urban settings are subject to processes and conditions within cities, on the one hand, and have a strong bearing on the overall conditions and the quality of life of the cities’ inhabitants, on the other. The built environment, in general, and buildings and infrastructure, in particular, play a major role in shaping the urban environment. At the same time, environmental conditions affect strongly the conditions within and outside of buildings.</p><p>The continued growth of cities in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern (EMME) region, the demise of environmental quality adds to the challenges faced by their inhabitants. Of the many factors contributing to these threats, climate change and its amplification in urban structures, the increasing load of pollutants in air and water and the rising numbers of dust storms as well as the growing amount of solid and liquid waste stand out.</p><p>The significant increase in the number of cars and the rising quantity of energy production has contributed to ever-worsening air quality in EMME cities. More specifically, urban road transport represents one of the major sources of air-borne pollutants in many of these cities and causes substantial threats to the health of their inhabitants.</p><p>The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the EMME region are major sources of desert dust storms that travel north and east to Europe and Asia, thereby strongly affecting cities and their air quality in the EMME. Dust storms and suspended bacteria and viruses pose serious consequences to communities in the EMME region and are likely to worsen due to ongoing climate change.</p><p>Present and future changes in climate conditions will have numerous adverse effects on the EMME region, in general, and on EMME cities, in particular. This includes extended heat waves as well as enhanced water scarcity for inhabitants and green spaces. In combination with poor air quality, this will cause severe health risks for urban populations as well as the need for increased and extended periods of space cooling in private, commercial and municipal buildings. The greater needs for water and energy in urban structures are interrelated and have been described by the Water-Energy Nexus. The higher demand for water is increasingly satisfied through desalination, which is particularly energy-intensive. The need for additional space cooling during hot spells in cities will require more electricity.</p><p>The high rate of population growth, ever-increasing urbanization, changes in lifestyles and economic expansion in the EMME countries result in steadily increasing volumes of solid and liquid waste. The waste problems are exacerbated by the rising number of displaced persons and refugees in growing camps in some of the EMME countries, particularly, in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. The huge quantity of daily produced sewage sludge in Middle Eastern countries presents a serious challenge due to its high treatment costs and risks to the environment and human health.</p><p>This paper will address some of these challenges, which call for holistic and interdisciplinary efforts to design effective and sustainable adaptation strategies in EMME cities.</p>

Abstract 36: Mapping and Multilevel Modeling of Climate Change and Air Pollution With Risk of Stroke in the United States and China: Findings From the Drexel-SARI Low Carbon and Healthy City Study

Stroke ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Longjian Liu ◽  
Hui Liu ◽  
Xuan Yang ◽  
Feng Jia ◽  
Mingquan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Pollution Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Potential Interaction ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Healthy City ◽  
Nationally Representative

Introduction and Hypothesis: Stroke is a leading cause of death and the major cause of disability in the world. However, few studies applied multilevel regression techniques to explore the association of stroke risk with climate change and air pollution. In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the disproportionately distributed stroke rates across the counties and cities within a country are significantly associated with air pollution and temperature. Methods: We used data from U.S. 1118 counties in 49 states, which had estimated measures of particulate matter (PM)2.5 for the years 2010-2013, and data from China 120 cities in 32 provinces (including 4 municipalities), which had measures of Air Pollution Index (API) for the years 2012-2013. We assessed the association between air quality and prevalence of stroke using spatial mapping, autocorrelation and multilevel regression models. Results: Findings from the U.S. show that the highest average PM2.5 level was in July (10.2 μg/m3) and the lowest in October (7.63 μg/m3) for the years 2010-2013. Annual average PM2.5 levels were significantly different across the 1118 counties, and were significantly associated with stroke rates. Multilevel regression analysis indicated that the prevalence of stroke significantly increased by 1.19% for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 (p<0.001). Significant variability in PM2.5 by states was observed (p=0.019). More than 70% of the variation in stroke rates existed across the counties (p=0.017) and 18.7% existed across the states (p=0.047). In China, the highest API was observed in the month of December, with a result of 75.76 in 2012 and 97.51 in 2013. The lowest API was observed in July, with a result of 51.21 in 2012, and 54.23 in 2013. Prevalence of stroke was significantly higher in cities with higher API concentrations. The associations between air quality and risk of stroke were significantly mediated by temperatures. Conclusions: The study, using nationally representative data, is one of the first studies to address a positive and complex association between air quality and prevalence of stroke, and a potential interaction effect of temperatures on the air - stroke association.

IAGOS Research Infrastructure for Global-Scale Atmosphere Monitoring by Instrumented Passenger Aircraft

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Petzold ◽  
Valerie Thouret ◽  
Christoph Gerbig ◽  
Andreas Zahn ◽  
Martin Gallagher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Research Infrastructure ◽  
Good Resolution ◽  
European Research ◽  
Commercial Aircraft ◽  
High Quality

&lt;p&gt;IAGOS (www.iagos.org) is a European Research Infrastructure using commercial aircraft (Airbus A340, A330, and soon A350) for automatic and routine measurements of atmospheric composition including reactive gases (ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds), greenhouse gases (water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane), aerosols and cloud particles along with essential thermodynamic parameters. The main objective of IAGOS is to provide the most complete set of high-quality essential climate variables (ECV) covering several decades for the long-term monitoring of climate and air quality. The observations are stored in the IAGOS data centre along with added-value products to facilitate the scientific interpretation of the data. IAGOS began as two European projects, MOZAIC and CARIBIC, in the early 1990s. These projects demonstrated that commercial aircraft are ideal platforms for routine atmospheric measurements. IAGOS then evolved as a European Research Infrastructure offering a mature and sustainable organization for the benefits of the scientific community and for the operational services in charge of air quality and climate change issues such as the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). IAGOS is also a contributing network of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;IAGOS provides measurements of numerous chemical compounds which are recorded simultaneously in the critical region of the upper troposphere &amp;#8211; lower stratosphere (UTLS) and geographical regions such as Africa and the mid-Pacific which are poorly sampled by other means. The data are used by hundreds of groups worldwide performing data analysis for climatology and trend studies, model evaluation, satellite validation and the study of detailed chemical and physical processes around the tropopause. IAGOS data also play an important role in the re-assessment of the climate impact of aviation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Most important in the context of weather-related research, IAGOS and its predecessor programmes provide long-term observations of water vapour and relative humidity with respect to ice in the UTLS as well as throughout the tropospheric column during climb-out and descending phases around airports, now for more than 25 years. The high quality and very good resolution of IAGOS observations of relative humidity over ice are used to better understand the role of water vapour and of ice-supersaturated air masses in the tropopause region and to improve their representation in numerical weather and climate forecasting models. Furthermore, CAMS is using the water vapour vertical profiles in near real time for the continuous validation of the CAMS atmospheric models. &lt;/p&gt;

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