scholarly journals An Extended Event Tree Risk Analysis Under Fuzzy Logic Environment: The Case of Fire in Ship Engine Room

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 210-220
Author(s):  
Ahmet Lutfi Tunçel ◽  
Emre Akyüz ◽  
Özcan Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Engine Room

Artificial intelligence treating the problem of uncertainty in quantitative risk analysis (QRA)

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-54
Author(s):  
Mohamed Seddik Hellas ◽  
Rachid Chaib ◽  
Ion Verzea
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Lung Damage ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

Purpose Nowadays, artificial intelligence computational methods, such as knowledge-based systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly applied to several industrial research studies, the purpose of this paper is to study the contribution of fuzzy and possibilistic techniques to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in the presence of imperfect knowledge about the occurrence and consequences of accidental phenomena. Design/methodology/approach To solve the problem of uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences, the authors used fuzzy logic. Using this type of analysis, it is possible to visualize the contours of the dead or fuzzy injury by fireball thermal effect (first- and second-degree burn, death) and lesions caused by vapor cloud explosion overpressure (lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, whole-body displacement). The frequency and severity of fuzzy results are calculated by extended multiplication using the alpha-cuts method. Findings This research project aims to reflect the real situation in the in Amenas industrial area (SONATRACH company), specifically the liquefied petroleum gas storage tank On-Spec 05-V-411A, to deal with this type of risk. Using this analysis allows us to estimate the fuzzy individual risk using the approach of fuzzy logic to treating this uncertainty in the parameter information of accident scenarios. This index individuel risk (IR) was evaluated against the criterion of acceptability and then used for decision-making in the field of industrial risk analysis and evaluation. Originality/value The originality of the work is to identify the weak points of the classical QRA to solve the problem of the uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences to visualize the fuzzy risk contours. On the one hand and the development of software to calculate the probability of death by the overpressure effect and classify the most sensitive organs on the other hand. Given the importance of this study, it can be generalized for similar sites in the region.

Applications of Fuzzy Logic

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radim Bělohlávek ◽  
Joseph W. Dauben ◽  
George J. Klir
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Image Analysis ◽  
Quantum Mechanics ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Application Domain ◽  
Business Decision ◽  
And Mathematics

The high visibility of fuzzy logic and mathematics based on fuzzy logic is primarily due to their highly successful applications in many areas of human affairs. The aim of this chapter is to characterize the evolution and current status of these applications. Covered are applications in the various areas of engineering, natural, social and earth sciences, psychology, medicine, management and business, decision making, pattern recognition, image analysis, risk analysis, music, among others. In each of these areas, the significance of using fuzzy logic and the associated mathematics is critically assessed. It is argued that in some application areas, such as psychology or quantum mechanics, a cooperation between researchers in fuzzy logic and those in the application domain, leading possibly to new types of nonstandard fuzzy sets, is essential for further progress.

scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Analysis of Offshore Fire and Explosion Based on the Analysis of Human and Organizational Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Fu Wang ◽  
Yu Lian Li ◽  
Biao Zhang ◽  
Pei Na Yan ◽  
Li Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Fire And Explosion ◽  
Human And Organizational Factors ◽  
Explosion Risk

A dynamic risk analysis model of offshore fire and explosion is proposed in this paper. It considers the effect of human and organizational factors in a more explicit way than current traditional risk analysis methods. This paper begins with exploring the recent advances on offshore fire and explosion risk analysis theories, followed by briefly introducing the research techniques employed in the proposed hybrid causal logic model which consists of event tree, fault tree, Bayesian network, and system dynamics. Thereafter, it proposes a quantitative risk analysis framework. At last, the applicability of this model to the offshore platform is also discussed. It aims to provide guideline for risk analysis of offshore fire and explosion.

Atmospheric metal pollutants and environmental injustice: A methodological approach to environmental risk analysis using fuzzy logic and tree bark

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 428-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Martins Gurgatz ◽  
Regiani Carvalho-Oliveira ◽  
Daniel Canavese de Oliveira ◽  
Emerson Joucoski ◽  
Gisele Antoniaconi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Tree Bark ◽  
Environmental Injustice ◽  
Metal Pollutants ◽  
Environmental Risk Analysis

STP Balance of Plant Model Update Experience and Results

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernie Kee ◽  
Fatma Yilmaz ◽  
Don Wakefield ◽  
Steve Epstein
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Production Risk ◽  
Balance Of Plant ◽  
Production Losses

The South Texas Project (STP) balance of plant (BOP) model for production losses has been converted from an Excel-based software application that uses minimal cutsets from a single large fault tree, to a set of small fault trees used within a risk analysis tool, Riskman® [8]. The Riskman® application provides estimates of interest to plant investors and owners such as potential production losses and plant profitability, as well as production reliability and quality (loss frequency, type of loss, loss duration and standard economic risk metrics). The BOP models and methodologies developed are applicable to both fault-tree linking and event-tree linking styles of risk analysis. The STP BOP model is developed to support configuration risk management in two categories: 1) trip risk and concomitant core damage frequency; and 2) non-trip production risk. The primary purpose for the conversion work is to make the STP BOP model framework and application platform consistent with the STP probabilistic risk assessment model. In the course of the conversion, improvements to the Riskman® software have been implemented and techniques to more efficiently produce BOP modeling (fault tree) improvements were developed. Better methods to accurately calculate initiating event frequencies are studied. New data types added to support BOP modeling are described.

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