Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Spillovers vs. Crowding Out

Over the years Pakistan has failed to collect enough revenues for financing of its budget. Consequently, the problem of twin deficits emerged and to finance the developmental activities government has to rely on public external and domestic debt. The positive effects of public debt relate to the fact that in resource-starved economies debt financing if done properly leads to higher growth and adds to their capacity to service and repay public debt. The negative effects work through two main channels—i.e., ―Debt Overhang‖ and ―Crowding Out‖ effects. The present study examines the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment in Pakistan for the period 1972-2009. It develops a hybrid model that explicitly incorporates the role of public debt in growth equations. As the some variables are I (1) and other are I (0) so Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) technique has been applied to estimate the model. Study finds that public external debt has negative relationship with per capita GDP and investment confirming the existence of ―Debt Overhang effect‖. However, due to insignificant relationships of debt servicing with investment and per capita GDP, the existence of the crowding out hypothesis could not be confirmed. Similarly, domestic debt has a negative relationship with investment and per capita GDP. In other words, it seems to have crowded out private investment. JEL classification: H63, O43, E22, C22 Keywords: Public Debt, Economic Growth, Investment, ARDL

Download Full-text

Is public debt hindering economic growth of the Philippines?

International Journal of Social Economics ◽

10.1108/ijse-02-2013-0047 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 42 (3) ◽

pp. 202-221 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Naeem Akram

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Debt ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

External Debt ◽

The Philippines ◽

Crowding Out ◽

Content Type ◽

Debt Overhang ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Domestic Debt

Purpose – Over the years most of the developing countries have failed to collect enough revenues to finance their budgets. As a result, they have to face the problem of twin deficits and to rely on external and domestic debt to finance their developmental activities. The positive effects of public debt relate to the fact that in resource-starved economies debt financing (if done properly) leads to higher growth and adds to their capacity to service and repay external and internal debt. The negative effects work through two main channels – i.e., “Debt Overhang” and “Crowding Out” effects. The purpose of this paper is to examine the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment for the Philippines. Design/methodology/approach – The present study examines the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment for the Philippines during the period 1975-2010, by using autoregressive distributed lag technique. Findings – The results reveal that in the Philippines, public external debt has negative and significant relationship with economic growth and investment confirming the existence of “Debt Overhang effect”. But due to insignificant relationships of debt servicing with investment and economic growth, the existence of the crowding out hypothesis could not be confirmed. The domestic debt has a negative relationship with investment and positive relationship with economic growth. Research limitations/implications – First and foremost implication of the study is that heavy reliance on external debt must be discouraged. Therefore, in order to accelerate economic growth, developing countries must adopt those policies that are likely to result in reducing their debt burden, and it must not be allowed to reach unsustainable level. In the case of domestic debt, the present study finds that investment is negatively affected by domestic debt due to the crowding out effect; yet real GDP has a positive relationship with domestic debt. Thus, if policy makers want to use domestic debt as a tool to stimulate real GDP then it must keep an eye on the consequences of domestic debt on the investment. Practical implications – First and foremost implication of the study is that heavy reliance on external debt must be discouraged. Therefore, in order to accelerate economic growth, the Philippines must adopt those policies that are likely to result in reducing their debt burden, and external debt it must not be allowed to reach unsustainable level. In the case of domestic debt, the present study finds that investment is negatively affected by domestic debt due to the crowding out effect; yet real GDP has a positive relationship with domestic debt. Thus, if policy makers want to use domestic debt as a tool to stimulate real GDP then it must keep an eye on the consequences of domestic debt for on the investment. Social implications – It also follows from the estimation results that population growth rate is harmful for the economic growth. So in order to stimulate the growth performance, it must adopt effective population control policies. Similarly, since openness and investment are growth enhancing so there is need for the trade and investment supportive policies. Originality/value – From the review of literature on the issue, it can be broadly summarized that most of the studies are on the relationship of external debt and economic growth, neglecting domestic debt entirely or mentioning it in the passing. Second, most of these studies have been conducted by using panel data. However, as the different countries vary in socio-economic conditions so it is better to conduct the country specific study. The present study is an attempt to fill these gaps in the existing literature.

Download Full-text

New Evidence for Romania Regarding Dynamic Causality between Military Expenditure and Sustainable Economic Growth

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12125053 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 5053 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ran Tao ◽

Oana Ramona Glonț ◽

Zheng-Zheng Li ◽

Oana Ramona Lobonț ◽

Adina Alexandra Guzun

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Structural Changes ◽

Private Investment ◽

Military Spending ◽

Military Expenditure ◽

Crowding Out ◽

Annual Growth Rate ◽

Sustainable Economic Development ◽

Sustainable Economic Growth

Military spending and sustainable economic development have been widely discussed in recent decades. Especially in Romania, the defense budget is valued at $4.8 billion, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.57%. It is also expected to reach $7.6 billion in 2023, according to a report by Strategic Defense Intelligence. There is no consensus in current research and less attention is paid to Eastern European countries. Considering the significant increase in military spending in Romania in recent years, as well as the occurrence of political events, this paper focuses on the dynamic causal relationship between military spending and sustainable economic growth in Romania. The bootstrap rolling window causality test takes into account the structural changes, and therefore, provides more convincing results. The results indicate negative effects of military expenditure on sustainable economic growth between 1996–1999 and 2002–2004. It can be attributed to the crowding-out effect of public expenditure on private investment. The positive effect between the two variables analyzed is noticed with the accession of Romania to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Conversely, it is found that economic growth does not have a significant effect on military spending in Romania. Policymakers should guard against the crowding out of private consumption and investment due to excessive military spending and ensure to increase military expenditure on the premise of sustainable economic development.

Download Full-text

Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the “Peace Dividend”

American Political Science Review ◽

10.2307/1963264 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 84 (4) ◽

pp. 1283-1293 ◽

Cited By ~ 101

Author(s):

Alex Mintz ◽

Chi Huang

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Economic Growth ◽

Eastern Europe ◽

The United States ◽

Equation Model ◽

Defense Spending ◽

Delayed Effects ◽

Peace Dividend ◽

Recent Developments

Recent developments in Eastern Europe have created expectations of a “peace dividend” associated with reduced levels of U.S. defense expenditures. We present and empirically estimate a two-equation model for assessing the direct and indirect, immediate and delayed effects of changes in defense spending on economic growth in the United States.

Download Full-text