The Demographic Transition: From High to Low Birth Rates and Death Rates

2017 ◽  
pp. 30-46
Author(s):  
George J. Stolnitz
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates

Surge of Non-Communicable Diseases in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Luqman Farrukh Nagi ◽  
Syed Tehseen Haider Kazmi
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Epidemiological Transition ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases

Pakistan is not only undergoing a demographic progression but it is also tormenting from epidemiological transition. Demographic transition is evident because birth rates are increasing (28.6 per thousand population in 2017) while death rates (7 per thousand population in 2017) are decreasing consequential to a population explosion1. In Pakistan and many other developing countries epidemiological evolution has led to a twofold encumber of disease2.

scholarly journals Problems of a Declining Hungarian Birth Rate: A Historical Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 93-109
Author(s):  
Ildikó Szántó
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
High Death ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Second World

In contrast to its immediate neighbors, for over a century Hungary has had a seriously declining birth rate. This paper aims to provide an overview of this anomaly through a historical perspective by considering the major findings of a series of demographic studies that identify the key factors behind falling levels of fertility. It does so by focusing on four major periods. The first period covers the era prior to the demographic transition that commenced before 1880, when the demography was characterized by high birth rates and high death rates. The second period is one of demographic transition, between 1880 and 1960 coinciding with modernization, and is the period when death rates fell, while at the same time being accompanied by a decrease in birth rates. The third period is the post-transitional era of 1960-1980. The fourth covers the post-socialist change of 1990-2010. Hungary was the first country in Europe after the Second World War in which the level of fertility declined below a level of simple replacement of the population, which is less than 2.1 births per woman. Since 1981 the population has been declining byabout 0.15 – 0.20 percent per year, and currently fertility in Hungary is one of the lowest in Europe. The Hungarian age structure will become increasingly problematic as the fertile age group of the population continues to shrink.

scholarly journals Introduction and overview

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Original Formulation ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Closed Populations

Since its original formulation in the 1940s (Davis 1945; Notestein 1945), the phenomenon known as ‘the global demographic transition’ has been used to understand the trend of structural population ageing, and with it, the slowing and ultimately the ending of population growth – now anticipated globally around the end of the present century (Lutz, Sanderson & Sherbov 2004). However as originally conceptualised, the theory pertained to ‘closed’ populations, in which the only dynamics were births and deaths. Falling death rates cause populations to first become younger and to grow in size, while falling birth rates eventually cause them to become older, and growth to slow – the increased numbers of survivors at older ages becoming an increased proportion of the population (Coale 1972; Chesnais 1990).

Irish Demography in a Comparative Context: European Transition Theory vs. A Post-Colonial Understanding

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. White
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Irish Society ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Post Colonial ◽  
Demographic Patterns

While studies of Irish society have concentrated on the effects of colonialism on late industrialisation and Irish social life, less work has been done on the uniqueness of Irish demographic change and its connection to the country's colonial past. The present article argues that Ireland demographic history has more in common with post-colonial societies than with European states that went through the so-called demographic transition. Irish demographic patterns differ even from peripheral societies of Europe, primarily because its historic pattern of emigration allowed for a stable population despite relatively high birth rates and rapidly declining death rates. Ireland's recent economic success, however, has dramatically altered this historic pattern and its vital rates now correspond more closely to the pattern of European countries that experienced an early demographic transition.

scholarly journals Demographic trends in the district of Smederevo: 1846-1866

2016 ◽  
pp. 507-515
Author(s):  
Nino Delic
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Orthodox Church ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Typical Model ◽  
Summary Data ◽  
Very High ◽  
Number Of Births

Summary data in statistical examination about births and deaths in the district of Smederevo in the period from 1846-1866, collected by the Serbian Orthodox Church and submitted to government institutions, revealed a typical model of late pre-transition phase, or a very early demographic transition. Calculated birth and death rates are very high, with repeated significant oscillations. The ?Malthusian scissors? seem to appear between 1854 and 1859, and after 1862. The overall population growth of nearby 50% between 1846 and 1866 seems to be mostly the result of natural growth. Still, comparing the total number of births and deaths with the overall population growth, an estimated 9% of the district?s total population in 1866 appears not to be originally born there.

scholarly journals Locally adaptive Bayesian birth-death model successfully detects slow and rapid rate shifts

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew F. Magee ◽  
Sebastian Höhna ◽  
Tetyana I. Vasylyeva ◽  
Adam D. Leaché ◽  
Vladimir N. Minin
Keyword(s):  
Random Field ◽  
Markov Random Field ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Rate Variation ◽  
Rapid Rate ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Growth Of Groups ◽  
Markov Random ◽  
Birth Death

AbstractBirth-death processes have given biologists a model-based framework to answer questions about changes in the birth and death rates of lineages in a phylogenetic tree. Therefore birth-death models are central to macroevolutionary as well as phylodynamic analyses. Early approaches to studying temporal variation in birth and death rates using birth-death models faced difficulties due to the restrictive choices of birth and death rate curves through time. Sufficiently flexible time-varying birth-death models are still lacking. We use a piecewise-constant birth-death model, combined with both Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) and horseshoe Markov random field (HSMRF) prior distributions, to approximate arbitrary changes in birth rate through time. We implement these models in the widely used statistical phylogenetic software platform RevBayes, allowing us to jointly estimate birth-death process parameters, phylogeny, and nuisance parameters in a Bayesian framework. We test both GMRF-based and HSMRF-based models on a variety of simulated diversification scenarios, and then apply them to both a macroevolutionary and an epidemiological dataset. We find that both models are capable of inferring variable birth rates and correctly rejecting variable models in favor of effectively constant models. In general the HSMRF-based model has higher precision than its GMRF counterpart, with little to no loss of accuracy. Applied to a macroevolutionary dataset of the Australian gecko family Pygopodidae (where birth rates are interpretable as speciation rates), the GMRF-based model detects a slow decrease whereas the HSMRF-based model detects a rapid speciation-rate decrease in the last 12 million years. Applied to an infectious disease phylodynamic dataset of sequences from HIV subtype A in Russia and Ukraine (where birth rates are interpretable as the rate of accumulation of new infections), our models detect a strongly elevated rate of infection in the 1990s.Author summaryBoth the growth of groups of species and the spread of infectious diseases through populations can be modeled as birth-death processes. Birth events correspond either to speciation or infection, and death events to extinction or becoming noninfectious. The rates of birth and death may vary over time, and by examining this variation researchers can pinpoint important events in the history of life on Earth or in the course of an outbreak. Time-calibrated phylogenies track the relationships between a set of species (or infections) and the times of all speciation (or infection) events, and can thus be used to infer birth and death rates. We develop two phylogenetic birth-death models with the goal of discerning signal of rate variation from noise due to the stochastic nature of birth-death models. Using a variety of simulated datasets, we show that one of these models can accurately infer slow and rapid rate shifts without sacrificing precision. Using real data, we demonstrate that our new methodology can be used for simultaneous inference of phylogeny and rates through time.

The Demography of Two West African (Gambian) Villages, 1951–75

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Z. Billewicz ◽  
I. A. McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
West African ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Live Births ◽  
First Child ◽  
Specific Mortality

SummaryFrom a longitudinal study over 25 years (1951–75) of two adjacent Gambian villages, the data allow estimates of population growth, birth rates, age-specific mortality, female fertility, and infertility rates in the two sexes. Such intensive but small scale local inquiries provide valuable information on topics not covered in official published statistics, and also data from which the reliability of some census details can be estimated. There are many similarities but also differences between the two villages. Population growth rate was 1·1% per annum for Keneba and 2·2% for Manduar. Crude death rates averaged 36·7 per thousand for Keneba and 24·7 for Manduar and showed little difference between the sexes. For Keneba and Manduar respectively stillbirth rates were 63·9 and 88·6, first week mortality 49·2 and 44·9 and neonatal mortality 85·2 and 49·6 per thousand live births. In Keneba, where survival to age 5 years averaged 50%, young child mortality was significantly higher than in Manduar but mortality at older ages was not. Season profoundly affected child mortality: about 45% of all deaths under 15 years occurred in the late wet season, August–October. Maternal mortality in Keneba was 10·5 and in Manduar 9·5 per thousand. Crude birth rates averaged 58·4 per thousand for Keneba and 49·0 for Manduar, rates per thousand women aged 15·44 years averaging 248·5 and 215·3 respectively.In both villages mean birth interval increased progressively with the survival of the preceding child. In Keneba the interval increased from about 16 months when the first of the two children was stillborn to nearly 37 months when the first child survived to 2 years. In Manduar the corresponding values were 19 and 36 months. Analyses of obstetric histories indicated that total fertility was of the order of 7·5 live births per woman in Keneba and 6·4 in Manduar. Estimates of primary infertility for females were 3·6% in Keneba and 5·6% in Manduar, and for males 3·1% and 1·9%. Estimates of secondary infertility in females were 13% in Keneba and 19% in Manduar.

Death-rates and birth-rates

Public Health ◽  
1915 ◽  
Vol 28 (4-12) ◽  
pp. 75
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates
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