On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 80 million confirmed infected cases and more than 1.8 million people died as of 31 December 2020. While it is essential to quantify risk and characterize transmission dynamics in closed populations using Susceptible-Infection-Recovered modeling, the investigation of the effect from worldwide pandemic cannot be neglected. This study proposes a network analysis to assess global pandemic risk by linking 164 countries in pandemic networks, where links between countries were specified by the level of ‘co-movement’ of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. More countries showing increase in the COVID-19 cases simultaneously will signal the pandemic prevalent over the world. The network density, clustering coefficients, and assortativity in the pandemic networks provide early warning signals of the pandemic in late February 2020. We propose a preparedness pandemic risk score for prediction and a severity risk score for pandemic control. The preparedness risk score contributed by countries in Asia is between 25% and 50% most of the time after February and America contributes around 40% in July 2020. The high preparedness risk contribution implies the importance of travel restrictions between those countries. The severity risk score of America and Europe contribute around 90% in December 2020, signifying that the control of COVID-19 is still worrying in America and Europe. We can keep track of the pandemic situation in each country using an online dashboard to update the pandemic risk scores and contributions.

Spatial integrated models foster complementarity between monitoring programs in producing large-scale ecological indicators

Over the last decades, large-scale conservation projects have emerged that require collecting ecological data over broad spatial and temporal coverage. Yet, obtaining relevant information about large-scale population dynamics from a single monitoring program is challenging, and often several sources of data, possibly heterogeneous, need to be integrated.In this context, spatial integrated models combine multiple data types into a single analysis to quantify population dynamics of a targeted population. Using available information at different spatial or temporal scales, spatial integrated models have the potential to produce detailed ecological estimates that would be difficult to obtain if data were analyzed separately. So far, these models are available for open populations to estimate demographic parameters (survival, recruitment), therefore requiring data collected in long-term monitoring programs. In conservation biology however, we often need to quantify population abundance and density in closed populations.In this paper, we showcase the implementation of spatial integrated models to closed populations in a conservation context. We analyzed spatial capture-recapture data together with distance-sampling data to estimate abundance and density. Focusing on the Mediterranean bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) as a case study, we combined 21,464 km of photo-identification boat surveys collecting spatial capture-recapture data with 24,624 km of aerial line-transect following a distance-sampling protocol. We compared the performances of the spatial integrated model, with that of the distance sampling model, and the spatial capture-recapture model separated. We discussed the benefits of using a spatial integrated model in the context of the assessment of French Mediterranean bottlenose dolphin conservation status to inform continental scale public policies.Overall, we emphasize the usefulness of spatial integrated model to make the most of available datasets in a conservation context. Spatial integrated models are widely applicable and relevant to conservation research and biodiversity assessment at large spatial scales.

The usage of Mate Select, a web-based selection tool for pedigree dogs for promoting sustainable breeding

Background Inbreeding is a phenomenon that accumulates through the mating of relatives within closed populations, such as pedigree dog breeds, and results in reduced genetic variation within breeds, and may lead to poorer health and fertility from inbreeding depression. The impact of inbreeding is driven by the selection and mating of parents, but information on choices to reduce inbreeding is difficult to assess for individual breeders. Tools to inform dog breeders on the current state of the inbreeding and the relationships among possible parents are potentially useful for providing guidance towards choices that are more beneficial to the breed. However, their utility depends on their usage and this study examines the usage of Mate Select, a web-based tool offered by The Kennel Club, covering 222 breeds for a period of 7 years following its launch in 2011. Results The average usage was 2830 searches/week in 2012 with a slight fall of 2.2% per year (P < 0.001) to 2480 searches/week in 2018. Of these, 4% originated from outside the UK, across all continents except Antarctica, with the majority coming from English speaking countries. Searches/week showed a cyclical pattern with two cycles of 26.0 and 50.1 weeks. Since Mate Select’s launch there has been a steady increase in searches from mobile devices, from 11% in 2012 to 43% in 2018. For the 197 breeds with at least 10 dams registered with the Kennel Club during the study period, there was a relationship between usage and registrations, with the average number of searches as a multiple of the number of dams increasing from 2 to 10 for breeds with up to 70 dams and declining towards 2 again for the largest breeds with approximately 20,000 registered dams. However, there remained substantial variation among breeds of similar size, and breeds for which EBVs had become available during the study period had a 2.46 fold greater frequency of searches per registered bitch (P < 0.001), but this was not linked directly to the publication of EBVs. Conclusions Mate Select has sustained and substantial usage, although there is also substantial variation in usage among breeds, which offers an opportunity to develop further guidance.

­­­­The usage of Mate Select, a web-based selection tool for pedigree dogs for promoting sustainable breeding

BackgroundInbreeding is a phenomenon that accumulates through the mating of relatives within closed populations, such as pedigree dog breeds, and results in reduced genetic variation within breeds, and may lead to poorer health and fertility from inbreeding depression. The impact of inbreeding is driven by the selection and mating of parents, but information on choices to reduce inbreeding is difficult to assess for individual breeders. Tools to inform dog breeders on the current state of the inbreeding and the relationships among possible parents are potentially useful for providing guidance towards choices that are more beneficial to the breed. However, their utility depends on their usage and this study examines the usage of Mate Select, a web-based tool offered by The Kennel Club, covering 222 breeds for a period of 7 years following its launch in 2011.ResultsThe average usage was 2830 searches/week in 2012 with a slight fall of 2.2% per year (P<0.001) to 2480 searches/week in 2018. Of these, 4% originated from outside the UK, across all continents except Antarctica, with the majority coming from English speaking countries. Searches/week showed a cyclical pattern with two cycles of 26.0 and 50.11 weeks. Sin­­­­ce Mate Select’s launch there has been a steady increase in searches from mobile devices, from 11% in 2012 to 43% in 2018. For the 197 breeds with more than 10 dams registered with the Kennel Club during the study period, there was a relationship between usage and registrations, with the average number of searches as a multiple of the number of dams increasing from 2 to 10 for breeds with up to 70 dams and declining towards 2 again for the largest breeds with approximately 20,000 registered dams. However, there remained substantial variation among breeds of similar size, and breeds for which EBVs had become available during the study period had a 2.46 fold greater frequency of searches per registered bitch (P<0.001), but this was not linked directly to the publication of EBVs.Conclusions Mate Select has sustained and substantial usage, although there is also substantial variation in usage among breeds, which offers an opportunity to develop further guidance.

On Topological Properties of COVID-19: Predicting and Controling Pandemic Risk with Network Statistics

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 24 million confirmed infected cases and more than 800,000 people died as of 28 August 2020. While it is essential to quantify risk and characterize transmission dynamics in closed populations using Susceptible-Infection-Recovered modeling, the investigation of the effect from worldwide pandemic cannot be neglected. This study proposes a network analysis to assess global pandemic risk by linking 164 countries in pandemic networks, where links between countries were specified by the level of 'co-movement' of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. More countries showing increase in the COVID-19 cases simultaneously will signal the pandemic prevalent over the world. The network density, clustering coefficients, and assortativity in the pandemic networks provide early warning signals of the pandemic in late February 2020. We propose a preparedness pandemic risk score for prediction and a severity risk score for pandemic control. The preparedness risk score contributed by countries in Asia is between 25% to 50% most of the time after February and America contributes close to 50% recently. The high preparedness risk contribution implies the importance of travel restrictions between those countries. The severity risk score of America is greater than 50% after May and even exceeds 75% in July, signifying that the control of COVID-19 is still worrying in America. We can keep track of the pandemic situation in each country using an online dashboard to update the pandemic risk scores and contributions.

Origin and exterior features analysis of geese breeds genealogical groups in Russian gene pool herd

The geese breeds not used in industrial poultry farming have become not numerous and exist mainly as closed populations. Therefore, the study and evaluation process of their inherent characteristics is closely related to the problem of breed conservation. Herewith the main objective is not the best genotypes selection, but the reproduction of the existing ones without their inherent qualities loss. The research objective is the analyses of the relationship between the preserved goose breeds and the study of the manifestation regularity of breed marking features in related bird groups. Materials and methods. The research was carried out on the basis of Federal State Budgetary Research Institution (FSBRI) “Verkhnevolzhsky Federal Agricultural Research Center (FARC)” (town of Suzdal). Nowadays the collection of geese in Suzdal is the richest both in Russia and abroad. It amounts 21 breeds of domestic and foreign selection. The research results identified 3 related goose groups and 7 independent breeds. Conclusion. All geese from the preserved gene pool have typical exterior features for each breed. Certain breed markers were stated to be the characteristic for the breeds of different pedigrees. These studies should be used for further breeding work in selecting producers in order to preserve and improve the geese gene pool.

Individual Reputations

This chapter studies the citation trajectory of an individual, which can be understood as tracing the diffusion of an innovation. The Bass model of innovation is widely used in marketing research to investigate the diffusion of new products, and is applied here to intellectual innovation. The Bass equation was inspired by epidemiological models of the spread of contagious disease in closed populations. They describe the cumulative social adoption of a trait. Modelling academic reputations in this way makes it possible to determine how transient or durable they are, and to monitor the ebb and flow of intellectual innovation more generally.