Monetary policy effectiveness in the liquidity trap: a switching regimes approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-155
Author(s):  
Dimitris G. Kirikos ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Investment Expenditure ◽  
Switching Regimes ◽  
Expenditure Growth ◽  
The Usa

Liquidity trap economics seems to have fared particularly well on all counts of its predictions, in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Therefore, in this paper we evaluate formally the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in a liquidity trap, based on data from Japan, the USA, and the eurozone over periods of liquidity trap conditions (1994–2018 for Japan and 2009–2018 for the USA and the eurozone). Under effective unconventional policies, changes in the base money-growth regime should be associated with similar regime changes in either inflation or investment expenditure growth and the estimation of a switching regimes model allows us to test whether significant joint regime shifts occur in the data. Also, a test of liquidity trap conditions is based on a discrepancy of regime shifts between growth rates of base money and broad money, since this implies a collapse of the money multiplier. Our findings show that drastic shifts in the growth rate of the monetary base do not produce similar behavior for the inflation rate, investment expenditure growth, and broad money growth, thus pointing to liquidity trap conditions and unconventional monetary policy ineffectiveness.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

scholarly journals Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Olga Kuznetsova ◽  
Sergey Merzlyakov ◽  
Sergey Pekarski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Consistency ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem.

scholarly journals Causes of The Outbreak of the Eurozone Crises: The Role of the Usa and the European Central Bank Monetary Policy

e-Finanse ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Natalia Białek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Central ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This paper argues that the loose monetary policy of two of the world’s most important financial institutions-the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank-were ultimately responsible for the outburst of global financial crisis of 2008-09. Unusually low interest rates in 2001- 05 compelled investors to engage in high risk endeavors. It also encouraged some governments to finance excessive domestic consumption with foreign loans. Emerging financial bubbles burst first in mortgage markets in the U.S. and subsequently spread to other countries. The paper also reviews other causes of the crisis as discussed in literature. Some of them relate directly to weaknesses inherent in the institutional design of the European Monetary Union (EMU) while others are unique to members of the EMU. It is rather striking that recommended remedies tend not to take into account the policies of the European Central Bank.

ARE MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS BLINDED BY THE ANALYTICAL ELEGANCE OF THEIR MODELS? POSSIBLE COSTS OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY MEASURES

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
PIOTR CIŻKOWICZ ◽  
ANDRZEJ RZOŃCAZ
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

We survey the possible costs of the unconventional monetary policy measures undertaken by major central banks after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. We argue that these costs are not easily discernable in the new Keynesian (NK) model, which defines a theoretical framework for monetary policy. First, the costs may result from the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures on the intensity of restructuring and the persistence of uncertainty (which increased after the outbreak of the crisis). However, neither of these processes is considered in the new Keynesian model. Second, costs may be generated not only by distortions in the choices made by economic agents but may also be a result of the decisions made by governments, particularly in terms of the fiscal deficit level. However, the new Keynesian model does not consider the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures on the quality of fiscal policy. Without carefully considering the costs, there is a significant risk that unconventional monetary policy measures could become a conventional response to recurrent crises.

GLOBAL BANK RISK AND MONETARY POLICY IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Paul Luk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Flexibility ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Global Banking ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Banks

The global financial crisis was characterized by heightened financial risk in the USA, which spread to the rest of the world, including emerging economies. This paper constructs a core–periphery model with a global banking network and financial frictions. Due to a common-lender effect, when global banks lend to an emerging economy, heightened financial risk in the center depresses cross-border lending to the emerging economy, reducing real activities and exacerbating monetary policy trade-offs. As financial markets become more integrated, exchange rate flexibility becomes less welfare enhancing and active capital account policy becomes more welfare enhancing.

UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND A MODERN VIEW ON CASH ISSUES

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Ch. A. GOGICHAEV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Abnormal Growth ◽  
Excess Reserves ◽  
Close Relationship

In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks in developed countries began to resort to unconventional monetary policy measures as interest rates approached zero. Such actions have led to the expansion of the balance sheets of central banks due to the abnormal growth of excess reserves. The article discusses the misconception that such an increase in the monetary base can directly affect the volume of money supply through the action of the money multiplier mechanism and the narrow credit channel of the transmission mechanism. The opinion disputed that non-traditional measures of monetary policy, pro-vided they are adequate, lead to an increase in inflationary risks in the economy. The work focuses on the lack of a close relationship between reserves, the level of lending and the money supply, and attempts made to assess the boundaries of the monetary policy methods under consideration.

scholarly journals Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 147-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia ◽  
Pau Rabanal ◽  
Damiano Sandri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The United Kingdom

The global financial crisis hit hard in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Real GDP from peak to trough contracted by about 6 percent in the euro area and the United Kingdom and by 9 percent in Japan. In all three cases, central banks cut interest rates aggressively and then, as policy rates approached zero, deployed a variety of untested and unconventional monetary policies. In doing so, they hoped to restore the functioning of financial markets, and also to provide further monetary policy accommodation once the policy rate reached the zero lower bound. In all three jurisdictions, the strategy entailed generous liquidity support for banks and other financial intermediaries and large-scale purchases of public (and in some cases private) assets. As a result, central banks’ balance sheets expanded to unprecedented levels. This paper examines the experience with unconventional monetary policies in the euro zone, the United Kingdom, and Japan. The paper starts with a discussion of how quantitative easing, forward guidance, and negative interest rate policies work in theory, and some of their potential side effects. It then reviews the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, including a narrative of how central banks responded to the crisis and the evidence on the effects of unconventional monetary policy actions.

scholarly journals Modeling Outcomes of Unconventional Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 10263-10268
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The paper presents a study of the outcomes of the unconventional monetary policy methods that the central banks of developed countries have been applying during and after the global financial crisis. Before the crisis central banks used the interest rate policy as their main tool. But the recent financial crisis has demonstrated the inefficiency of traditional methods (especially after the base interest rate has reached zero). Therefore in response to the global financial crisis, central banks of many countries have taken unconventional measures to overcome the crisis. The paper aims to study the main outcomes of unconventional monetary policy measures of the developed countries and formulate the recommendations for the developing countries. The following objectives are being met in the paper:to reveal the essence of the main mechanisms for implementing the unconventional monetary policy; to evaluate the efficiency of unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, United Kingdom;to model the impact of monetary policy of the European Central bank on the consumer price index in the Eurozone countries. Research methods: method of comparative analysis is usedto evaluate the efficiency of the unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, European Union and the United Kingdom.The model of themonetary policy impact on the consumer price index is based on econometric analysis and is constructed using the least squares method. The studied model includes both traditional and non-traditional methods.Observation period - quarterly data from 1999 to the second quarter of 2019. The results of the analysis show that unconventional monetary policy methods of the central banks of the developed countries reached major goals - to prevent bankruptcies of large financial institutions in national economies. Moreover, the results of the suggested model show that the European Central Bank policy has also reached its inflation target that supposed to stimulate economic growth; the most significant effect is observed in the first years after the launch of an unconventional monetary policy. At the same time the unconventional tools of monetary policy stimulate the extreme increase of the securities prices, which led to the “overheating” of the US stock market and the EU national bonds markets with the negative yield on government securities of several countries, which may become a trigger for a new global crisis in the future. The result of the analysis of monetary policy in Ukraine shows the limitations of the use of non-traditional measures for the developing countries.

scholarly journals Effects of unconventional monetary policy on income and wealth distribution: Evidence from United States and Eurozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 535-558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan-Francisco Albert ◽  
Nerea Gómez-Fernández ◽  
Carlos Ochando
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Wealth Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Household Wealth ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Income And Wealth Distribution

As an answer to the ?Great Recession? and Zero Lower Bound problem, main central banks had to use unconventional monetary policy (UMP). This research focuses on the distributive effects of these measures on household income and household wealth in the United States of America (USA) and the Eurozone. For this purpose, this paper presents four models that were constructed using the Structural Vector Autoregressive methodology (SVAR). The results suggest that the UMPs applied by the Federal Reserve (FED) in the USA could increase wealth and income inequality through the portfolio channel. However, the same results were not observed in the Eurozone.

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