UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND A MODERN VIEW ON CASH ISSUES

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Ch. A. GOGICHAEV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Abnormal Growth ◽  
Excess Reserves ◽  
Close Relationship

In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks in developed countries began to resort to unconventional monetary policy measures as interest rates approached zero. Such actions have led to the expansion of the balance sheets of central banks due to the abnormal growth of excess reserves. The article discusses the misconception that such an increase in the monetary base can directly affect the volume of money supply through the action of the money multiplier mechanism and the narrow credit channel of the transmission mechanism. The opinion disputed that non-traditional measures of monetary policy, pro-vided they are adequate, lead to an increase in inflationary risks in the economy. The work focuses on the lack of a close relationship between reserves, the level of lending and the money supply, and attempts made to assess the boundaries of the monetary policy methods under consideration.

scholarly journals Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 147-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia ◽  
Pau Rabanal ◽  
Damiano Sandri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The United Kingdom

The global financial crisis hit hard in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Real GDP from peak to trough contracted by about 6 percent in the euro area and the United Kingdom and by 9 percent in Japan. In all three cases, central banks cut interest rates aggressively and then, as policy rates approached zero, deployed a variety of untested and unconventional monetary policies. In doing so, they hoped to restore the functioning of financial markets, and also to provide further monetary policy accommodation once the policy rate reached the zero lower bound. In all three jurisdictions, the strategy entailed generous liquidity support for banks and other financial intermediaries and large-scale purchases of public (and in some cases private) assets. As a result, central banks’ balance sheets expanded to unprecedented levels. This paper examines the experience with unconventional monetary policies in the euro zone, the United Kingdom, and Japan. The paper starts with a discussion of how quantitative easing, forward guidance, and negative interest rate policies work in theory, and some of their potential side effects. It then reviews the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, including a narrative of how central banks responded to the crisis and the evidence on the effects of unconventional monetary policy actions.

scholarly journals Modeling Outcomes of Unconventional Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 10263-10268
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The paper presents a study of the outcomes of the unconventional monetary policy methods that the central banks of developed countries have been applying during and after the global financial crisis. Before the crisis central banks used the interest rate policy as their main tool. But the recent financial crisis has demonstrated the inefficiency of traditional methods (especially after the base interest rate has reached zero). Therefore in response to the global financial crisis, central banks of many countries have taken unconventional measures to overcome the crisis. The paper aims to study the main outcomes of unconventional monetary policy measures of the developed countries and formulate the recommendations for the developing countries. The following objectives are being met in the paper:to reveal the essence of the main mechanisms for implementing the unconventional monetary policy; to evaluate the efficiency of unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, United Kingdom;to model the impact of monetary policy of the European Central bank on the consumer price index in the Eurozone countries. Research methods: method of comparative analysis is usedto evaluate the efficiency of the unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, European Union and the United Kingdom.The model of themonetary policy impact on the consumer price index is based on econometric analysis and is constructed using the least squares method. The studied model includes both traditional and non-traditional methods.Observation period - quarterly data from 1999 to the second quarter of 2019. The results of the analysis show that unconventional monetary policy methods of the central banks of the developed countries reached major goals - to prevent bankruptcies of large financial institutions in national economies. Moreover, the results of the suggested model show that the European Central Bank policy has also reached its inflation target that supposed to stimulate economic growth; the most significant effect is observed in the first years after the launch of an unconventional monetary policy. At the same time the unconventional tools of monetary policy stimulate the extreme increase of the securities prices, which led to the “overheating” of the US stock market and the EU national bonds markets with the negative yield on government securities of several countries, which may become a trigger for a new global crisis in the future. The result of the analysis of monetary policy in Ukraine shows the limitations of the use of non-traditional measures for the developing countries.

scholarly journals QUANTITATIVE EASING AS THE MAIN INSTRUMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-45
Author(s):  
Halyna Alekseievska ◽  
Anzor Mumladze
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Real

After the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the financial crisis turned into a global crisis and had a negative impact on the real economy. During the crisis, there has been a significant decrease in key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, short-term interest rates, unemployment and inflation. The GDP growth rate had taken a negative value in developed countries. Inflation was below 1 percent, and deflation was observed in Japan, which in turn slowed down economic development. Central banks responded to the crisis with a change in interest rates, but this was not enough to calm financial markets and improve the real economy. Most central banks have developed many new monetary policy tools, including communication strategies, credit policies, and large asset purchases. These new measures are often called “unconventional” monetary policies. The purpose of the article is to study quantitative easing as one of the unconventional measures of monetary policy. Methodology. The article uses general scientific and special methods: generalization, systematization, economic and statistical analysis, graphic and comparison methods. This allowed us to study the theoretical foundations of the quantitative easing policy, determine the economic background for these measures application, analyze the development stages and the basic rules of functioning policy. The quantitative easing policies usage was also examined on the examples of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Results. The main trends and economic conditions, under which these methods can be used in future, were identified using an analysis of the quantitative easing application background. The policy’s main components analysis provides a clear understanding of the quantitative easing essence. As a result of the unconventional monetary policy usage, there has been a significant expansion of the USA, Japan and the Eurozone central banks' balances, which amounts to more than 10 trillion USD. Due to this process, central banks have become key bondholders. Practical meaning. The given results analysis will determine that kind of unconventional monetary policy effectiveness and the possible consequences of a significant increase in the central banks’ balance sheet assets. Value/originality. In the article, the conditions, under which unconventional monetary policy has been applied, are systematized and the four central banks’ quantitative easing policy is compared.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

scholarly journals Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Olga Kuznetsova ◽  
Sergey Merzlyakov ◽  
Sergey Pekarski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Consistency ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

ARE MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS BLINDED BY THE ANALYTICAL ELEGANCE OF THEIR MODELS? POSSIBLE COSTS OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY MEASURES

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
PIOTR CIŻKOWICZ ◽  
ANDRZEJ RZOŃCAZ
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

We survey the possible costs of the unconventional monetary policy measures undertaken by major central banks after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. We argue that these costs are not easily discernable in the new Keynesian (NK) model, which defines a theoretical framework for monetary policy. First, the costs may result from the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures on the intensity of restructuring and the persistence of uncertainty (which increased after the outbreak of the crisis). However, neither of these processes is considered in the new Keynesian model. Second, costs may be generated not only by distortions in the choices made by economic agents but may also be a result of the decisions made by governments, particularly in terms of the fiscal deficit level. However, the new Keynesian model does not consider the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures on the quality of fiscal policy. Without carefully considering the costs, there is a significant risk that unconventional monetary policy measures could become a conventional response to recurrent crises.

scholarly journals Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9229
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Normalization Process

It has been more than a decade since central banks, in the face of the global financial crisis, implemented a set of unconventional initiatives that included a rapid and significant decrease in their main interest rates and an unprecedented balance sheet policy. Thus far, they still have not returned their monetary policy to the pre-crisis framework and have not implemented a normalization process. Currently, a trend of using econometric models in monetary policy for forecasting purposes has been observed. Among these models, Bayesian vector autoregression models (BVAR models) are increasingly being used by central banks. The main aim of this study was to conduct an empirical verification of the BVAR model’s usage for short-term prediction which could then be used for a sustainable (ordered) normalization process for the UK’s monetary policy. This study verifies a research hypothesis which states that the BVAR model might be a useful tool in the Bank of England’s decision-making process regarding the normalization of its monetary policy. Additionally, the cause and effect analysis, observation method, document analysis method, and synthesis method were also considered. The conducted research indicates that a large BVAR model has a significant predictive value for short-term forecasting.

scholarly journals Framework for Preserving Financial Stability in Montenegro

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoje Žugić ◽  
Nikola Fabris
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract The global financial crisis has challenged the traditional monetary policy framework of one instrument (short-term interest rates) - one objective (price stability). More and more central banks nowadays consider financial stability as a monetary policy objective, whereas the Central Bank of Montenegro is the only one that has identified financial stability as its primary objective. As this is a relatively new objective, all central banks endeavouring to attain this objective have been facing numerous difficulties. Therefore, the article analyzes some of these difficulties such as defining financial (in)stability, the selection of indicators, macroeconomic environment for preserving financial stability, and the like. The main objective of the paper is to analyse the framework for preserving financial stability in Montenegro and the challenges that the Central Bank of Montenegro has been facing in accomplishing this objective

scholarly journals CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioana Plescau
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of our paper is to analyze the conventional and unconventional monetary policy in Romania, in the context of the recent financial crisis. We study the relationship between interest rates and credit risk, but also the non-standard monetary measures that were adopted by the National Bank of Romania and their impact on the banking system. Our results point to a decrease of interest rates in the years after the crisis, which is in line with the majority of central banks that have reduced monetary rates in order to sustain the economy and the credit activity.

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