Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country.

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Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

Middle European Scientific Bulletin ◽

10.47494/mesb.2020.5.57 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 51-55

Author(s):

Smartson. P. NYONI

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Diagnostic Tests ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Parsimonious Model ◽

Annual Time ◽

Prevalence Of Anemia ◽

Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model.

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Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

Middle European Scientific Bulletin ◽

10.47494/mesb.2020.4.43 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. 67-70

Author(s):

Smartson. P. NYONI ◽

Thabani NYONI

Keyword(s):

Sierra Leone ◽

Diagnostic Tests ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Optimal Model ◽

Out Of Sample ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Annual Time ◽

Prevalence Of Anemia ◽

Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

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Total New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

International Journal on Integrated Education ◽

10.31149/ijie.v3i10.648 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (10) ◽

pp. 1-5

Author(s):

Smartson. P. NYONI ◽

Thabani NYONI

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Diagnostic Tests ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Hiv Infections ◽

Series Data ◽

Sample Period ◽

Out Of Sample ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Parsimonious Model ◽

Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, H, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon is likely to continue declining over the out-of-sample period.

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Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

Middle European Scientific Bulletin ◽

10.47494/mesb.2020.5.49 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 16-21

Author(s):

Smartson. P. NYONI ◽

Thabani NYONI

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Diagnostic Tests ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Hiv Infections ◽

Series Data ◽

Optimal Model ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Annual Time ◽

Normally Distributed

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

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The Small and Medium Enterprises and Poverty in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

European Journal of Business and Economics ◽

10.12955/ejbe.v8i2.376 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sharafat Ali

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Small And Medium Enterprises ◽

Series Data ◽

Small Scale ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Long Run ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Medium Enterprises ◽

Small Scale Industries ◽

Annual Time

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) have got very much importance in the economic growth, employment generation and poverty alleviation in the economy. The annual time series data is used for examination of impact of SMEs on poverty in Pakistan for the period of 1972-2008. The study utilizes Johansen cointegration and error correction mechanism to examine long run and short impacts small scale industries and other explanatory variable on poverty in Pakistan. The results of the study confirm a strong and poverty alleviating impact of small scale industries’ output in Pakistan. The study the economic policy makers to focus on the establishment of formal financial markets to overcome the financial constraints faced by the SME sector in Pakistan. Simplification of lending procedures, enforcement of credit rights, and reduction in credit costs would be helpful for the establishment of robust SME sector in Pakistan.

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Analyzing neonatal deaths in Zimbabwe using box-jenkins arima models

International Journal on Integrated Education ◽

10.31149/ijie.v3i7.462 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (7) ◽

pp. 39-50

Author(s):

Dr. Smartson. P. Nyoni ◽

Mr. Thabani NyonI

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Diagnostic Tests ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Arima Models ◽

Optimal Model ◽

Neonatal Deaths ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Annual Time ◽

Policy Prescription

Using annual time series data on neonatal deaths in Zimbabwe from 1966 to 2018, we model and forecast number of neonatal deaths over the next 25 years using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Neonatal Deaths (ND) series is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (8, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study reveal that the numbers of neonatal deaths per year are expected to decline sharply in the next 25 years. In order to keep on reducing neonatal deaths in Zimbabwe, the study offered a four-fold policy prescription.

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Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

Vikalpa The Journal for Decision Makers ◽

10.1177/0256090919940202 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 13-20

Author(s):

G S Gupta ◽

H Keshava

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Individual Country ◽

Price Elasticities ◽

The World ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Income And Price Elasticities ◽

Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

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Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance

American Political Science Review ◽

10.2307/1963174 ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 85 (2) ◽

pp. 539-556 ◽

Cited By ~ 175

Author(s):

R. Michael Alvarez ◽

Geoffrey Garrett ◽

Peter Lange

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Organized Labor ◽

Series Data ◽

Labor Movements ◽

Economic Policies ◽

Macroeconomic Performance ◽

Industrial Democracies ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Left And Right ◽

Annual Time

Governments of the Left and Right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue. Their propensity to do so, however, is constrained by their desire for reelection. We argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy, particularly the labor movement. We hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance. In countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements, leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment. Conversely, in countries with weak labor movements, rightist governments can pursue their partisan-preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes. Performance will be poorer in other cases. These hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984.

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OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Middle European Scientific Bulletin ◽

10.47494/mesb.2020.5.82 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 156-165

Author(s):

Smartson. P. NYONI ◽

Thabani NYONI

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Annual Number ◽

Open Defecation ◽

Sanitation And Hygiene ◽

Vision 2030 ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

The Government ◽

The Right ◽

Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

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