Climate Change Influence On Ontario Corn Farms’ Income.

Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on the income of corn farms in Ontario, at the 2068 horizon, under several warming scenarios. It is articulated around a discrete- time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step, corresponding to one agricultural cycle from planting to harvest. At each period, we compute the income of a farm given the corn yield, which is highly dependent on weather variables: temperature and rainfall. We also provide a reproducible forecast of the yearly distribution of corn yield for the regions around ten cities in Ontario, located where most of the corn growing activity takes place in the province. The price of corn futures at harvest time is taken into account and we fit our model by using 49 years of county-level historical climate and corn yield data. We then conduct out-of-sample Monte-Carlo simulations in order to obtain the farm income forecasts under a given climate change scenario, from 0 ° C to + 4 ° C.

Perception of Daily Time: Insights from the Fruit Flies

We create mental maps of the space that surrounds us; our brains also compute time—in particular, the time of day. Visual, thermal, social, and other cues tune the clock-like timekeeper. Consequently, the internal clock synchronizes with the external day-night cycles. In fact, daylength itself varies, causing the change of seasons and forcing our brain clock to accommodate layers of plasticity. However, the core of the clock, i.e., its molecular underpinnings, are highly resistant to perturbations, while the way animals adapt to the daily and annual time shows tremendous biological diversity. How can this be achieved? In this review, we will focus on 75 pairs of clock neurons in the Drosophila brain to understand how a small neural network perceives and responds to the time of the day, and the time of the year.

Pengaruh Pembiayaan Musyarakah Terhadap Pendapatan Bank BRI Syariah Indonesia Periode 2014-2020

Consumer financing is one of the focuses of BRI Syariah financing distribution because it has a low risk. This is because consumer financing is based on mortgages and multi-purpose financing. This study aims to determine the effect of Musyarakah Financing on Income. This research was conducted at Bank BRI Syariah Indonesia for the period 2014 to 2020. This method uses a descriptive quantitative approach. The development of Islamic banking is also marked by an increase in the distribution of financing. Financing is very important because this financing factor is the key to the development of Islamic banks in the future. Ideally, Islamic bank financing is dominated by musharaka contracts which are run with a profit-sharing system. The data used in this study is secondary data derived from annual reports that can be accessed through the Financial Services Authority website in the form of an annual time series from 2014-2020. This study applies a simple linear regression data analysis method. Based on the results of research using the SPSS Version 20 statistical program, Musyarakah Financing (X) has a positive and significant effect on Income (Y).

Impact de la variabilité climatique et de l'anthropisation sur les écoulements de la Bénoué (nord Cameroun)

La sécheresse observée en Afrique tropicale vers la fin des années 1960, a également affecté le bassin de la Bénoué en Afrique centrale, avec une persistance remarquable qui s'est répercutée sur les écoulements. Les ruptures à la baisse ont été mises en évidence dans les séries hydropluviométriques de ce bassin au pas de temps annuel en 1970–1971 (pluies) et 1971–1972 (débits). Les déficits associés à cette rupture sont de -2,9 % pour les pluies et -14,2 % pour les débits, par rapport à la moyenne climatologique (1950–1951 à 2014–2015). La saison humide a connu des évolutions pratiquement identiques. Cependant, depuis la décennie 1990, il est observé un relèvement significatif dans les écoulements moyens annuels de ce cours d'eau, et cela coïncide avec le retour des pluies. Le maintien de cette hausse au cours des récentes décennies pourrait être envisagé en raison de l'accroissement des espaces imperméabilisés dans le bassin, qui compenseraient le déficit engendré par la rechute des pluies après la décennie 1990 via une accentuation du ruissèlement. De plus, depuis la mise en eau du barrage de Lagdo en 1983, il est observé non seulement une augmentation de l'ensemble des gammes de débits minima suivant des taux allant de +57,8 % (minimum sur 1 jour) à +70,1 % (minimum sur 90 jours), mais aussi un accroissement général de la variabilité de l'ensemble des débits extrêmes (minima et maxima). L'augmentation progressive du stockage en saison de pluies à la retenue de Lagdo, pour fournir l'électricité et l'eau d'irrigation durant la saison sèche à une population grandissante, rendent imperceptibles les effets de l'accroissement des espaces imperméabilisés non seulement sur les écoulements de la saison humide, mais aussi sur les écoulements maxima. Au demeurant, l'opérationnalisation du barrage de Lagdo a eu un impact significatif sur le régime de la Bénoué, se traduisant essentiellement par le caractère désormais permanent de l'écoulement tout au long de l'année hydrologique et un important fléchissement de la crue d'août à octobre. Abstract. A tendency to drought conditions appeared in tropical Africa from the end of 1960s, also affect the Benoue watershed in central Africa, with a remarkable persistence in streamflow. Negative breakpoints are found in the annual hydroclimatic time series of the Benoue catchment at annual time step in 1970–1971 for rainfall, and in 1971–1972 for discharges. Compared to the climatological mean (1950–1951 to 2014–2015), the deficits associated with these negative breakpoints are approximating −2.9 % for rainfall, and −14.2 % for discharges. The wet season shows similar developments. However, from the 1990s, there has been a significant increase in the mean annual discharges of the Benoue River, which coincides with that of the rainfall during the same decade. The maintenance of this increase over the recent decades could also be expected in response to an increase in impervious surface areas (ISA) in the catchment area, which could compensate the deficit generated by the post-1990s rainfall deficit through increasing in runoff. From the watering of the Lagdo dam in 1983, an increase in all ranges of minimum flow, ranging from +57.8 % (1 d minimum) to +70.1 % (90 d minimum), as well as an increase in the variability of extreme flows (minima and maxima), has been detected. During the wet season, the increase in water storage capacity at the Lagdo reservoir, which is used to provide electricity and irrigation water to a growing population, mitigates the increase in runoff, especially in maximum runoff. Moreover, the operationalization of the Lagdo dam has a significant impact on the Benoue hydrological regime, resulting mainly in a new perennial nature of the flow, and a significant decrease in flood from August to October.

Evaluation gridded precipitation datasets in Indonesia

This preliminary study evaluates ten gridded precipitation datasets in Indonesia, namely APHRODITE, CMORPH, CHIRPS, GFD, SA-OBS, TMPA 3B42 v7, PERSIAN-CDR at 0.25°, moreover GSMaP_NRT V06, GPM-IMERG (Early-Run) V06, and MSWEP V2 at 0.1» in the period of 2003 to 2015. The evaluation focuses on time series bias using metrics such as Mean Error, Coefficient of Variation, Relative Change (Variability), and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. The statistical relationship between the precipitation datasets with reference observational data use Taylor diagrams for evaluating the relative skill of the precipitation dataset. The study aims to evaluate the uncertainty of the precipitation datasets compared to rain gauge datasets. Time series bias of SA-OBS and MSWEP have the nearest value to zero as the best score. The relative skill of monthly rainfall based on rainfall typical shows that MSWEP outperformed in regions A and B, GPM-IMERG in C region. GPM-IMERG's relative skill is outperformed than other datasets at annual time scale in Region A and B, while TMPA 3B42 in Region C. The application of existing precipitation datasets is essential to cope with the limitation of rain gauge observations. This study implicates the development of precipitation products in the Indonesia region.

Impact of Import and Export on The Ghanaian Economy

International trade is a cross-border exchange of goods and services. Ghana, a developing country, is no different from countries that rely heavily on international trade. The study seeks to analyze data obtained from the secondary annual time series for the period 1990 to 2020. Through multiple regression analysis between the trade and the economic growth, Augmented Dickey fuller test, Johansen co-integration test, Vector auto regression test, and Co-variance analysis Vector error cointegration test were used to verify the main hypothesis. The emphasis reveals positive effect of trade on the GDP of Ghana thereby having significant impact on the Ghanaian economy.

Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model

The article analyses the effect of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility changes in Greece and Turkey. The empirical part of the study is based on annual time series data retrieved from the World Bank and National Statistical Offices of Turkey and Greece for 1991–2019. Canonical Cointegrating Regression model is applied for the two countries separately, allowing to quantify the effects of the determinants (crude marriage rate and unemployment rate by sex) on the variation of fertility rate. CCR models show these determinants to be the most significant factors of fertility dynamics in both countries. The results from Engle-Granger and the Phillips-Ouliaris tau (t-statistics) tests confirm the cointegration, i.e., long-term relationship between the variables only for Turkey’s CCR model. However, it was found that in Greece, female unemployment impacts fertility rate negatively and male unemployment has a positive effect on fertility rate; for Turkey modelling shows the opposite relationship. The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainties might be one of the factors contributing to fertility decline in these countries, long-term or in the coming years.

Prices, Money Supply and Output Nexus in Pakistan – A Macro Econometric Model

This study is an endeavor to examine joint determination of prices, money supply and output in Pakistan during 1975-2019 by using macro-economic model and annual time series data. Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) method is utilized to estimate simultaneous model of prices, money supply and output nexus. Our results strongly support significant positive association between prices and money supply thus supports monetarist view that growth in money supply causes inflation and rising behavior of prices is detrimental to real output. The accelerated inflation has obstructed real output and reduced output levels has further caused jump in price levels during the investigated period. The empirical results also supports significant bi-directional relationship between prices and money supply. Prudent monetary policy is need of hour to stabilize prices in order to minimize its adverse impacts on real output.

International Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity: A Study of High and Low Inflation Countries

The purpose of this article is to select a sample of low inflation countries and high inflation countries and examine the long run validity of the relative Purchasing Power Parity doctrine. We explore the notion that countries with historically low inflation experience strong and stable currency and those with a continuous high inflation face weak and depreciating currencies. After a review of the literature, a theoretical model is developed for the relationship between inflation and exchange rate changes. This is followed by some graphical annual time series and empirical results for selected countries. We find our hypothesis is supported for high inflation countries. We then explore productivity differences and their impact on real exchange rates.