scholarly journals OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 156-165
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Sanitation And Hygiene ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

scholarly journals Open defecation in Kenya: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Policy Recommendation ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Kenya from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The authors apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODK series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Kenya is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 9.9% to almost 8.2% of the total population. Hence, it is possible for Kenya to completely eliminate the practice of open defecation by 2030. The study basically suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Kenya.

scholarly journals Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Smartson P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control ◽  
Blue Print ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned.

Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

scholarly journals Impact of Remittance on Economic Development of Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Rameshwar Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Time

This study assesses the impact of remittance on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP) and Per Capita Income (PCI) of Nepal employing multiple regression method on national annual time series data for a period of 41 years (from 1974/75 to 2014/15). The results show that there is positive impact of remittance on GDP, GNP and PCI. Further, the findings clearly provide an evidence of predictive power of fixed capital formation on economic development. But the role of export could not be established. Finally, to foster the economic development, it is suggested that the government should initiate policy to channelize the remittance income into the productive uses by offering attractive investment schemes to the remittance receiving families.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 539-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael Alvarez ◽  
Geoffrey Garrett ◽  
Peter Lange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Organized Labor ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Labor Movements ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Industrial Democracies ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Annual Time

Governments of the Left and Right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue. Their propensity to do so, however, is constrained by their desire for reelection. We argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy, particularly the labor movement. We hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance. In countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements, leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment. Conversely, in countries with weak labor movements, rightist governments can pursue their partisan-preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes. Performance will be poorer in other cases. These hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984.

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Prevalence Of Anemia ◽  
Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

scholarly journals Pemodelan Dan Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Kota Sampit Dengan Seasonal Arima (Sarima)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-72
Author(s):  
Agustina Elisa Dyah Purwandari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Seasonal Factors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

AbstractSampit is one of 82 cities in Indonesia which calculate inflation. Inflation is an increase of prices on goods and services in a region. Government’s control is very important because inflation relates to the real income, the exchange rate, import exports, and so on. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Because of CPI is a monthly data prices, it is highly influenced by seasonal factors. Therefore, CPI data modelling is needed because it helps the government to make appropriate policies. Method that can be used for time series data with seasonal influences is Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The results of the study show that the right model for Sampit’s CPI is SARIMA with the order p = 1, d = 1, P = 1, D = 1, Q = 1, s = 12. It is the best model that can built and be used for forecasting because with 95 percent of confidence, the model explains 87.23 percent of data. Forecasting in this research use interval analysis and found that January 2020 may be the highest increase of CPI (inflation) in 2020. Keywords: CPI, Inflation, SARIMA

Developing Public Sector Growth through E-Government and Democracy A Detailed Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 8-15
Author(s):  
Taufiq Gutawa
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Review Section ◽  
The Future ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Public sector growth refers to the growth and development in the government-controlled departments and establishments. The industries and different sectors of a country that come under the influence of government come under public sector. E-government is actually the employment of innovative techniques and practices while performing several operations for the facilitation of citizens by the government. The core motive of using e-government practices to ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of those operations that are being performed for the public. Democracy refers to the right of citizens of a particular country in order to choose the leaders or government of their own choice based on the decision of majority. This study investigates promoting public sector growth through E-government adoption and democracy in ASEAN countries. Transparency rate and population factor are two important control variables which are induced in this research study. In the literature review section, previous related research studies have been indicated. The time-series data has been collected about concerned variables regarding ASEAN countries. The analyses portion includes unit root IPS, Pedroni cointegration and FMOLS regression and concluded that the hypotheses proposed by the researcher are accepted along with some share of impact of control variables. The researcher concluded that E-government and democracy positively impact public sector growth of ASEAN countries. At the last of this study, implications, limitations and future recommendations are also present. The implications include various theoretical, practical and policy making contexts. The future recommendations can be used by the future researchers so that they can increase the scope of their researches.

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