Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence

Increasing tobacco taxes is considered the most effective an cost-effective policy to reduce tobacco consumption. However, a common objection to tobacco taxes is that they tend to rely disproportionately on the poorest individuals since less affluent smokers incur proportionately greater expenditures on cigarettes compared with more affluent smokers. Such objections usually assume that all smokers throughout the income distribution react similarly to an increase in tobacco prices. But, if less affluent smokers are more sensitive to price changes (ie, they have a higher demand price elasticity), reductions in tobacco consumption should be higher at the bottom of the income distribution. This paper uses data from Argentina’s Household Expenditure Survey to estimate demand price elasticities for tobacco by income and age groups. Results indicate that less affluent smokers present higher demand price elasticities for cigarettes than more affluent ones. A 10% increase in cigarette prices would decrease consumption by 8.5% (4.4%) for the poorest (richest) smokers. In addition, young people are the most elastic group. These differential elasticities have relevant implications in terms of the distributional incidence of increasing tobacco taxes. As less well-off individuals reduce consumption relatively more, they bear a relatively lower tax burden. Thus, tobacco tax increases may not be regressive as is often believed. As a whole, this paper provides policymakers with relevant arguments for policy discussion and the public debate on common objections to increasing tobacco taxes.

Do Fossil-Fuel Price Distortions Impact the Low-Carbon Transition in China’s Energy Intensive Industries?

Energy intensive industries (EIIs) in China are predominantly reliant on fossil fuels. Consequently, such high fossil fuel dependency has amplified carbon emission levels and blocked the low-carbon transition. It is inappropriate to discuss the solution of the dependency before investigating fossil-fuel price distortion and its impact on the industrial energy consumption. Therefore, this paper built a dynamic trans-log cost function model based on provincial panel data of China’s Ells between 2004 and 2016, to investigate inter-fuel substitution effects caused by own price elasticities and cross price elasticities, and analyzed the impact of fossil-fuel price distortions on low-carbon transition. The level of price distortions in coal, gasoline and diesel was evaluated, based on which the CO2 mitigation potentials in China’s EIIs were estimated. Results show that: 1) in each EII sector, the own price elasticities of all fuels were negative while the cross price elasticities among coal, oil and electricity were positive, suggesting substitution effect exists; 2) the average level of price distortions in coal, gasoline and diesel is 7.48, 11.1 and 32.19%, respectively, which means the prices of coal tend to be more market- oriented than the other two fuels; 3) removing coal price distortions can potentially reduce CO2 emissions in China’s EIIs by 905.78 million tons, while the effects of removing oil price distortions were uncertain, unless the substitution of coal for oil was restrained. Therefore, there is still much room for improvement in China’s fossil-fuel market reform. Possible policies are required to improve the production in EIIs and the low-carbon transition by adopting cleaner energy resources to substitute fossil-fuels.

On the Health Care Luxury Good Hypothesis

A wide range of research has been developed in the empirical literature regarding income and price elasticities of health care expenditure (HCE). The results are mixed, as researchers employ different methodologies and data sources. The benefits of the panel data method, such as greater data variation, less collinearity, and more degrees of freedom, made it attractive among economists. However, the pooled mean group (PMG) method provides robust estimates compared to conventional methods, such as the mean group estimator and dynamic fixed-effects estimator. As such, this paper applies the PMG method to scrutinize the effect of income and price on U.S. health care consumption using a panel of 46 states. The income and price elasticities were found to be 0.85 and -0.48, respectively, which partially describes the recessionary decline in health care consumption following the Great Recession. In addition, the model reveals that the short-run income elasticity is smaller than the long-run. This confirms that U.S. health care consumption follows the permanent income hypothesis. Consequently, the short-run efficacy of public policies targeting HCE remains limited. The results of this paper suggest reconsidering and adjusting health care policies during a recession so as to avoid probable long-run adverse effects on HCE.

Unconditional factor demands and supply response for livestock products: A farm-level analysis of the Southern Rangelands of Kenya

This paper evaluates output supply and input factor demands for livestock products in the Southern rangelands of Kenya. A flexible translog profit function that permits the application of the primal approach to the output supply and factor demand analysis was estimated using household-level data. The results indicate that the own-price elasticities of supply for cattle, sheep and goats were all positive. The own-price elasticities for the supply of sheep and goat products were elastic, while the own-price elasticities for the supply of cattle products wasinelastic. Cross-price and scale elasticities were found to be within the inelastic range in all cases, with goat production complementing both cattle and sheep production. All factor input demand elasticities for cattle, sheep and goats had the expected negative sign and were inelastic. These results offer a valuable opportunity for the development of pro-pastoral price policies that reduce factor market imperfections and thus enhance livestock productivity in the rangelands of Kenya.

Modelling tourism competitiveness in small Pacific island countries

This study models overall and bilateral tourism competitiveness in small Pacific island countries (PICs), namely, Cook Islands, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu. The pooled mean group approach, which corrects for cross-sectional dependence and non-stationarity, is used for estimation with quarterly data from 2002 to 2019. The findings indicate that for Fiji and Vanuatu, other PICs are competing destinations and that Fiji and Vanuatu face the strongest bilateral competition amongst the selected PICs. Cross-price elasticities are insignificant for Tonga and are generally negative for the Cook Islands and Samoa. Thus, while for Fiji and Vanuatu, the Cook Islands is a competing destination, Fiji and Vanuatu are complementary destinations for the Cook Islands. Therefore, destinations that more closely resemble each other face stronger competition, and the nature and strength of competitive behaviour between two destinations are different for each concerned destination.

Price promotion of organic foods and consumer demand

Existing studies have examined the demand elasticities for organic products only in select categories, and their results for consumers' sensitivity to price changes are inconsistent. Evidence regarding the effects of price promotions on the demand for organic foods vs non-organic foods is scarce. This study aims to (1) examine the own-price elasticities of organic foods vs non-organic counterparts both with and without a promotion in a variety of product categories, and (2) investigate how the distinctive promotion effects between organic and non-organic counterparts depend on food category features. Using purchase data for 36 food categories from the 2015 Nielsen Consumer Panel, we find differential own-price elasticities for organic and non-organic foods, regardless of whether the product is purchased with a promotion. When the products are purchased with a promotion, we find stronger price promotion effects of organic virtues than non-organic virtues and weaker price promotion effects of organic vices than conventional vices. Price promotions of organic foods are more likely to induce health-conscious consumers to switch from conventional purchases to organic purchases in virtues.

Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment

Objective To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands. Methods We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products’ own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models. Results Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p < 0.05) and included values greater than 0.10. Supplementary and complementary effects were particularly found in the dairy, meats and snacks categories. For example, a 1% increase in the price of high saturated fat dairy was associated with a 0.18% (SE 0.06%) increase in purchases of low saturated fat dairy. For name- and home-brand products, significant substitution effects were found in 50% (n = 3) of cases, but only in one case this was above the 0.10 threshold. Conclusions/policy implications Given the relatively low own-price elasticities and the limited substitution and complementary effects, relatively high taxes are needed to substantively increase healthy food purchases at the population level. Trial registration This study included secondary analyses; the original trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459.

The Relationship between Product Complexity and Exchange Rate Elasticities: Evidence from the People’s Republic of China’s Manufacturing Industries

More complex products are less substitutable in international trade and may therefore have lower price elasticities. We investigate this issue using 960 types of manufactured exports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to 190 partner economies disaggregated at the Harmonized System 4-digit level. We measure complexity using Hidalgo and Hausmann’s (2009) product complexity index. We find that price elasticities are lower for more complex goods. These results imply that the PRC can reduce its exporters’ exposure to tariffs, trade wars, and exchange rate volatility by upgrading its export basket.