External Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

This study seeks to evaluate the impact of public borrowing on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2018. Specifically, the study seeks to analyze the effect of domestic debt (proxy by Federal Government Bonds-FGB) and external debt (proxy by International Monetary Fund Loan-IMFL) on Nigerian’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To achieve this objective, secondary data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulleting and the Debt Management Office of Nigeria. A multiple regression model involving the dependent variable (GDP) and the independent variables (FGB and IMFL) was formulated and subjected to econometric analysis. These variables were adjusted with the Jarque-bera test of normality while the correlation result was used to check the possibility of multi-collinearity among the variables. The t-test was used to answer the research questions and test the formulated hypotheses at the 5percent statistical level. Results from the analysis show that a positive relationship exists between IMF Loan and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, while a negative relationship exists between FG Bonds and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, which violates the Keynesian theory of public debt. The study concludes that both domestic and external debt significantly affect economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, it was recommended that public borrowing should be efficiently used and contracted solely for economic reasons and not for social or political reasons as this will help to avoid accumulation of debt stock over time.

Co-Integration Approach to Analysing The Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

International Journal of Finance Research ◽

10.47747/ijfr.v2i2.336 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 111-128

Author(s):

Biradawa Kayadi ◽

Confidence Chinwe Opara ◽

Christy Twaliwi Zwingina ◽

Udeme Okon Efanga

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

External Debt ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Debt Service ◽

Debt Management ◽

Series Data ◽

Integration Test ◽

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

Journal La Bisecoman ◽

10.37899/journallabisecoman.v2i2.359 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 25-41

Author(s):

Ogbonna Ogbonna ◽

Ihemeje Ihemeje ◽

Obioma Obioma ◽

Hanson Hanson ◽

Amadi Amadi

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

External Debt ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Debt Service ◽

Debt Management ◽

Series Data ◽

Integration Test ◽

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

Investigating the Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan

Journal of Business & Tourism ◽

10.34260/jbt.v4i2.160 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 41-51

Author(s):

IRUM SAJJAD ◽

DR. MUHAMMAD AZAM KHAN

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

External Debt ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

The Impact ◽

This article is an attempt to evaluate the effect of external debt on economic growth for during the period of 1980–2016. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test is used for determining stationarity, whereas the ADF test results exhibit that the variables used found are . The empirical results indicate that external debt and total debt service have deleterious and statistically significant impacts on GDP growth rate. The other explanatory variables namely human capital by life expectancy, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)reveals significantly positive significant influence on GDP growth rate. Appropriate policy should be adopted by the policy makers to reduce external debt, increase volume of exports and enhance more foreign investment, it will boost economic growth in the country.

NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN NET EKSPOR INDONESIA 2000 – 2017 (GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST)

Convergence: The Journal of Economic Development ◽

10.33369/convergence-jep.v1i1.10854 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 9-24

Author(s):

Try Beta Anggraini ◽

Yefriza Yefriza

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Series Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Net Export ◽

The aims of this research is to find out the relationship of rupiah exchange rate and net export Indonesia. This research covers the periode for 2000.Q1-2017.Q4, used secondary data which were analyzed using Granger Causality Test and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and existing data processed by using computer program of Eviews 9.0. The stationary properties of the time series data are examined by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Granger Causality test is applied to find out long-run relationship along with causality among the variables. The result of the data analysis show that there is no causality between rupiah exchange rate and net xport. Granger Causality test showed that there is unidirectional causality between net export to rupiah exchange rate. It is mean that net export effect rupiah exchange rate, but rupiah exchange rate does not effect net export. Keywords: Causality, Net Export, Exchange Rate

Estimating the Impact of Human Capital Underutilization on the Productivity and Economic Growth in India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-914304/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Vijaya Kumar M ◽

Balu B

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Human Capital ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Series Data ◽

International Labor Organization ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Integration Test ◽

The Impact ◽

Abstract This study investigated the effect of human capital underutilization on productivity and economic growth. It has used time-series data accessed from the International Labor Organization (ILO) and World Bank database. This paper estimated the relationship between the underutilization of human capital on productivity and economic growth by applying the econometric tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Integration Test, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed that in the long run human capital underutilization has a negative relationship on GDP and labor productivity and it does not in the short run. The study recommends that specific policy legislations in the Indian labor markets are required for addressing the problem of human capital underutilization and thereby accelerating the economic growth and productivity for the current and future generations.

Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Rwanda: 1961-2018

10.21203/rs.3.rs-95124/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Ruranga ◽

Daniel S. Ruturwa ◽

Valens Rwema

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Development Indicators ◽

Long Run ◽

Equilibrium Relationship ◽

Short Run ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade on economic growth in Rwanda. This paper uses exports and imports for trade and gross domestic product for economic growth. Research questions were formulated as (1) Are exports, imports and economic growth cointegrated? (2) Is there a long or short run relationship between those Variables? (3) Are there any causal relationships between factors (4) what the direction of the causality is it? Annual time series data from World Development Indicators for the period from 1961 to 2018 have been used. The methods of linear regression for estimation of Vector Auto regressions models have been used. Our findings established that VAR was appropriate model, and GDP, Exports were stationary at first differences while Imports was stationary at second difference but not at levels. Hence the two series were integrated of order one and the third one was integrated of order two. Tests of cointegration indicates that the three variables were not cointegrated, implying there was no long run equilibrium relationship between the three series. The causality test indicated that exports and imports influenced GDP. On the other hand, we found that there was a strong evidence of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. However, there was bidirectional causality between GDP and imports. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, were seen as the source of economic growth in Rwanda.

International Journal of Innovative Research in Social Sciences and Strategic Management Techniques ◽

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT SECURITY EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

10.48028/iiprds/ijirsssmt.v7.i1.16 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 211-225

Author(s):

Amana Abu ◽

◽

Aigbedion Marvelous

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Capital Expenditure ◽

Least Square ◽

Series Data ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Causality Test ◽

Defence Spending ◽

The Impact ◽

Government Security

This study is an attempt to assess the impact of government security expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986-2018. The study was carried out using time series data, and econometrics tools were used for testing and estimation. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) was used to test the stationarity, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to estimate the impact of government security expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria and the causality test was also carried out to show the casual relationship among the economic variables using Granger test. From the study’s findings, the data were stationary at various levels and the impact estimated result shows that government security expenditure has strong impact on economic growth in Nigeria given the R2 Square of 0.97. While long run result revealed that Government Recurrent Defence Spending in Nigeria (GRDEXP), Government Recurrent Internal Security Spending in Nigeria (GRISEXP) and Government Security Capital Expenditure in Nigeria (GSCAEXP) were statistically significant at 5% level of significance. Also, ECM result revealed that all the independent variables were statistically insignificant in explaining the variation in Real Gross Domestic Products (RGDP) in Nigeria except Government Recurrent Defence Spending in Nigeria (GRDEXP).Therefore, the study recommends that government should design a mechanism to ensure all monies spent in Security in Nigeria are accounted for economic growth in Nigeria.

Empirical analysis of crude oil consumption and price on Ghana’s economic growth

Open Science Journal ◽

10.23954/osj.v5i4.2558 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Gideon Kweku Appiah ◽

Ebenezer Oduro ◽

Shadrack Benn

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Oil Price ◽

Series Data ◽

Energy Information Administration ◽

Oil Consumption ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

AbstractThe objective of this paper was to investigate the impact of crude oil consumption and oil price on the growth of the Ghanaian economy. It proceeded with annual time series data (1980-2016) sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI) and Energy Information Administration (EIA). All variables used in the study were integrated of order one as suggested by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Further, the Johansen Cointegration test suggested the existence of cointegration among the variables. The study used the OLS estimation procedure.The study found a positive and statistically significant relationship between oil price and economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, an inverse relationship was found between crude oil consumption and economic growth in the long run.Based on the findings the study recommends that the government diversify the economy to reduce the shock the economy might experience in times of oil price shocks. Further, risk management instruments like physical reserves and hedging against oil prices should also be employed.Also, the study recommends policies that encourage efficient consumption of crude oil, especially in the productive sectors like industry in order to trigger growth. This notwithstanding, the study recommends effective measures to mitigate the externalities associated with increased production and consumption of crude oil, such as the carbon tax.

Assessment of the Impact of External Borrowing on the Economic Growth of the Developing Countries - Nigerian Experience

Asian Business Research ◽

10.20849/abr.v3i1.331 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 29 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi ◽

Rosemary Bukola Adekoya

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Capital Investment ◽

Time Series Data ◽

External Debt ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Debt Service ◽

Series Data ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

This paper examines the impact of foreign borrowing on the economic growth of the developing nations using Nigeria as a case study. Time series data from 1985 and 2015 were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and other related journals. Data sourced were analyzed using Durbin Watson auto correlation to test for the reliability of the data and diagnostic tests such as unit root test (Augmented Dickey Fuller) and Johansen co-integration to test for the non-stationary of the data and long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. OLS multiple regressions were used as estimation technique to test for the relationship between the explanatory variables and economic growth. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth, exports, capital investment and debt service payment but external debt and exchange rate have a significant inverse relationship with economic growth. The study concludes that, capital investment, exports and debt service payment have impact on economic growth but external debt and exchange rate do not. Therefore, the study recommends that, purpose of borrowing should be considered important while channeling the borrowed funds and efficient utilization of the funds to solve the purpose by which it was acquired will go a long way to impact growth on the economy of the country.