scholarly journals Socio-Economic Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic and Strategies for Reviving Nigeria’s Economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 64-80
Author(s):  
Christopher Eyioma Alozie ◽  
Abel O. Ideh ◽  
Innocent Ifelunini
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Petroleum Exploration ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Sustainability Strategies ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run

This study provides multi-disciplinary assessment of coronavirus pandemic transmission in Nigeria, magnitude of confirmed cases, recoveries, deaths, and inventory of infected person with recovery lags. It applied the statistical outcomes in predicting spilling over to subsequent periods. It identifies economic sectors worst hit by COVID-19 triggered recession, simulate the estimates of potential fiscal and other macroeconomic impact of the pandemic in the country in short run alongside synthesis of restoration and sustainability strategies. Secondary data relating to coronavirus infection cases, spreads, recoveries and fatalities were assessed, using the susceptible-infected-recovered” (SIR) model in absence of mass testing and probable cessation from health crisis management. It identified economic sectors/activities being devastated by COVID-19 induced recession, provides interim estimates adverse impact based on economic peak and down-turn cycle method. The study also measured the magnitude of macroeconomic shocks in Nigeria’s economy using a standard global computable general equilibrium model and exploration of sustainability strategies based on synthesis of extant reports were employed. These data-sets were obtained from the Nigerian sources and partly from global sources. Furthermore, it utilized trend analysis derived from empirical data of extant daily confirmed cases, discharges and hospitalized person together with tentative projection of additional confirmed cases as from July–September, 2020. Results revealed that confirmed cases in Nigeria will increase steadily from 25694 (in June) to around 74825 by the end September and expected to reach 121000 by end of year 2020. This suggests that the pandemic is likely to persist up to the second quarter of 2021. Education, transport (aviation), hospitality, tourism and sports businesses; trade (informal sector) in the services sector; petroleum exploration in mining sub-sector are most severely contracting activities industries in the economy. Given the prevailing intensity of recession, the result indicates that a reduction of about 5-to-7% in GDP will be recorded in 2020. Result of variance analysis of fiscal budget estimates indicates adverse increase of -2% or more in overall fiscal deficit balances during the periods, which may aggravate debt burden with decline of about -5.7 percent and up to -7 percent in nominal GDP. Health, education, agriculture, petroleum exploration; petroleum refining and petrochemical industries, manufacturing (particularly pharmaceuticals), energy and power generation should be given priority in the sustainability programme.

scholarly journals Sectoral Responses, Macroeconomic Impact and Household Welfare: GST Policy for Malaysia Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-39
Author(s):  
Juliana Mohd Abdul Kadir ◽  
Mohamed Aslam Gulam Hassan ◽  
Zarinah Yusof
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
The Impact

Goods and services tax (GST) has been a controversial topic in Malaysia when it was first implemented. This study examines the impact of the GST on the Malaysian economy from three major perspectives. First, it investigates the consequent changes in sectoral responses, including output and prices for 15 main sectors. Second, the study presents the results of GST impact on seven macroeconomic variables, namely, consumption, investment, government revenue, government expenditure, export, import, and gross domestic product. Third, the results of household welfare are discussed. A computable general equilibrium model is utilized to simulate GST impact on the Malaysian economy, and a simple comparative static model is performed. The results prove that the higher the GST rate, the higher is the impact on each sector. The sectors most affected by GST are communication and ICT, and the electricity and gas sectors. By contrast, agriculture, forestry and logging, and the petroleum and natural gas sectors are the least affected. Consumption and investment receive the largest negative effect, whereas government revenue and expenditure show the largest positive effect. The study likewise finds that by lowering GST rate, the welfare loss was minimized and the higher-income groups were affected more than the lower-income groups.

scholarly journals What Are the Economic and Labour Market Effects of an Income Tax Reduction Targeted at Older Workers?

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Maxime Fougère ◽  
Simon Harvey ◽  
Bruno Rainville
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Market Effects ◽  
Tax Reduction ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact

This paper explores the economic and labour market effects of implementing a tax reduction targeted at older workers. The analysis is conducted with a life-cycle computable general equilibrium model calibrated on Canadian data. The analysis shows that implementing a permanent income tax reduction for workers aged 60 and over has only small macroeconomic effects because the labour supply increase of older workers is partly offset by a reduction in the labour supply at core ages. This induced effect also discourages savings and generates crowding out through private investment but has a favourable impact on lifetime economic welfare. The macroeconomic impact is much larger when the income tax reduction is temporary because workers no longer reduce their hours at core ages and there is no reduction in savings. However, since only current middle-aged and older workers benefit from the tax cut, a temporary income tax cut reduces intergenerational equity.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic impact of Foreign Aid on Pakistan Economy (1972-2014)

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 587-596
Author(s):  
Hifsa Bibi ◽  
Amjad Amin ◽  
Danish Alam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run

Purpose: Although Pakistan receives large quantity of foreign aid, like other developing countries, but it remains more dependent on foreign assistance for economic development since independence.  This situation has commenced a vigorous discussion on aid-growth effectiveness. Methodology: This research work evaluates the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid on Pakistan economy by using secondary data. The empirical analysis is based on ARDL cointegration approach after testing for unit root, using the data for the period 1972-2014. Findings: The findings suggest there is no long run relationship between Foreign aid and Economic Growth. However, there exists negative short run relation between Foreign aid and Economic Growth of Pakistan. Implications: Based on the study findings, the study recommends that government of Pakistan should find alternate sources of financing as the relation between foreign aid and economic growth is found negative and insignificant. The in depth analysis of the study made it evident that allocation of aid to those sectors of the economy which really needs development, is more productive, provided that the country should use aid funds in the right direction, as corruption less economy prosper more rapidly.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic impact of Eskom’s six-year capital investment programme

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reyno Seymore ◽  
Olusegun Akanbi ◽  
Iraj Abedian
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Investment Programme ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of an increase in Eskom’s capital expenditure on the overall macro and sectoral economy using both a Time-Series Macro-Econometric (TSME) model and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation results from the TSME model reveal that in the long run, major macro variables (i.e. household consumption, GDP, and employment) will be positively affected by the increased investment. A weak transmission mechanism of the shock on the macro and sectoral economy is detected both in the short run and long run due to the relatively small share of electricity investment in total investment in the economy. On the other hand, the simulation results from the CGE reveal similar but more robust positive impacts on the macro economy. Most of the short-run macroeconomic impacts are reinforced in the long run.

Analysing labour productivity and its economic consequences in the two Spanish tourist archipelagos

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662091786
Author(s):  
Federico Inchausti-Sintes ◽  
Ubay Pérez-Granja ◽  
José Juan Morales-Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Stochastic Production Frontier ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Stochastic Production ◽  
Productivity Gains ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

The analysis of productivity in tourism has mainly focused at sectoral level. However, the strong dependence on services and its impact at macroeconomic level in tourism-led economies should require a deeper analysis of productivity, especially when faced with increased cheaper competition. This article estimates a stochastic production frontier and compares the differences in labour productivity between industrial-led and tourism-led provinces in Spain. This analysis provides novel results in terms of technological changes by differentiating industrial-led province from tourism-led province. Finally, these labour productivities are introduced in a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the two Spanish archipelagos to analyse their respective macroeconomic impact. The results show that the increase in permanent jobs in both economies leads to a convergence in labour productivity with those that are industry led. Furthermore, labour productivity gains improve competitivity against foreign destinations and enhance sectoral diversificación. However, tourism may crowd out domestic demand and investment.

TOWARDS OIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION: IMPACT OF DEVELOPING 8 (D-8) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (02) ◽  
pp. 1350009
Author(s):  
JAMAL OTHMAN ◽  
MUSTAFA ACAR ◽  
YAGHOOB JAFARI
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Welfare Gain ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
The Impact

The Developing 8 (D-8) comprises of eight developing countries (Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and Nigeria), all of which are OIC members with large Muslim populations. The D-8 has formed a freer trade alliance with the objectives to create new opportunities and enhance intra-trade relations while providing better standards of living for its citizens. This paper examines the trade impact of possible trade liberalization among the D-8 countries using a multi-country computable general equilibrium model, i.e., GTAP. Results indicate that while the D-8 intra-trade is expected to increase very substantially, not all member countries will experience a welfare gain under a free trade arrangement. Likewise, the impact on economic sectors differs substantially across countries.

The impact of the COVID-19 enforced lockdown and fiscal package on the South African economy and environment: a preliminary analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu ◽  
Martin Henseler ◽  
Ramos Mabugu ◽  
Helene Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown and government fiscal plan, containing ‘green’ elements on the economy and the environment of South Africa. The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model operationalised using a social accounting matrix coupled with a greenhouse gas balance and emissions data. We find that while the economy is harshly impacted by the pandemic in the short term, the government fiscal package ameliorates and cushions the negative effects on poor households. Importantly, an adaptation of the fiscal package towards a ‘greener’ policy achieves the same economic outcome and reduces unemployment. Carbon dioxide emissions decrease in the short run due to economic slowdown. This improvement persists until 2030. These results can be used as decision support for policy makers on how to orient the post COVID-19 policies to be pro-poor and pro-environment, and thus, ‘build back better and fairer’.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document