scholarly journals Macroeconomic impact of Eskom’s six-year capital investment programme

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reyno Seymore ◽  
Olusegun Akanbi ◽  
Iraj Abedian
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Investment Programme ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of an increase in Eskom’s capital expenditure on the overall macro and sectoral economy using both a Time-Series Macro-Econometric (TSME) model and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation results from the TSME model reveal that in the long run, major macro variables (i.e. household consumption, GDP, and employment) will be positively affected by the increased investment. A weak transmission mechanism of the shock on the macro and sectoral economy is detected both in the short run and long run due to the relatively small share of electricity investment in total investment in the economy. On the other hand, the simulation results from the CGE reveal similar but more robust positive impacts on the macro economy. Most of the short-run macroeconomic impacts are reinforced in the long run.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Yuan-SDR Exchange Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Debesh Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The paper endeavours to explore the macroeconomic impact on the Yuan SDR exchange rate of China during 2017m1-2021m6 to justify the internationalization of RMB which had entered into the SDR basket of IMF in October 2016.To evaluate the impact ,the paper used the methodology of Johansen (1988) cointegration and vector error correction model considering monthly Yuan per SDR as dependent variable and monthly GDP, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, export and import as the independent macro-economic variables. The pattern of trendline of Yuan per SDR is found nonlinear having cyclical fluctuations and seasonal variations according to Hamilton (2018). The paper also found that Yuan per SDR has significant long run causalities with export, import, inflation rate, GDP and foreign exchange rate of China during the specified period. Even, Yuan per SDR has significant short run causality with export only. The cointegrating equation converged towards the equilibrium with the speed of adjustment 11.83% per month significantly. The impulse response function of import to Yuan per SDR showed significantly convergent. The VECM contains autocorrelation problem and unit root for which it is non-stationary.

Export pricing and the macroeconomic effects of US import tariffs

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. R39-R45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulf D. Slopek
Keyword(s):  
Export Prices ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact

We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as prices increase while output declines. Due to exchange rate movements and changes in the prices of traded goods, prices and output in other economies tend to move in the same direction. We demonstrate that the size and persistence of the macroeconomic impact following the introduction of new tariffs critically hinge upon the specific assumptions underlying the behaviour of export prices. If foreign exporters are concerned about their net-of-tariff prices, there will be little adjustment after the initial surge in tariff-inclusive export prices. As a result, the adverse macroeconomic impact will be large and persistent both in the US and abroad. While additional government spending financed by tariff revenues could mitigate the adverse impact on the protectionist economy in the short run, retaliation by its trading partners would worsen the outcome. Our simulations also raise doubts about the ability of protectionist measures to rein in global imbalances.

scholarly journals The impact of selected macro variables on child labor in Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Shafinah Rahim ◽  
Fatin Nur Nadia Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Child Labor ◽  
Family Income ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of government expenditure, household expenditure and adult unemployment on child labour in Indonesia between 1985 and 2014. The data from the World Bank Indicators tested using Johansen &Juselius Cointegration (J&J), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality, Generalized Variance Decomposition (GVDCs) and Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) show thatthere are long run and short run relationships between the variables. Hence,the need to improve on policiesrelating to encouraging children to attend school without affecting their family income becomes critical. In addition household consumption pattern and spending decisions may require adjustment with the support of the authorities so as to assist the common man in prioritising their basic development needs, especially education.

scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 139-174
Author(s):  
Chandana Aluthge ◽  
Adamu Jibir ◽  
Musa Abdu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of Nigerian government expenditure (disaggregated into capital and recurrent) on economic growth using time series data for the period 1970-2019. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. To ensure robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root test and the co-integration analysis. The key findings of the study are that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run while recurrent expenditure does not have significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study recommends that government should increase the share of the capital expenditure especially on meaningful projects that have direct bearing on the citizen’s welfare. Government should also improve the spending patterns of recurrent expenditure through careful reallocation of resources toward productive activities that would enhance human development in the country.

scholarly journals Analysis of Non-conventional Indicators of Gender Relations: Evidence from Pakistan

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (4II) ◽  
pp. 913-929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rehana Siddiqui ◽  
Shahnaz Hamid ◽  
Rizwana Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Economic Role ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Since 1980 many developing countries have adopted two major macroeconomic strategies: Stabilisation and Structural Adjustment. A generally held view regarding the impact of these macroeconomic strategies is that it led to unemployment, low investment, decline in real wages, capital flight, rise in inequality and poverty. All these resulted in deterioration in living conditions of the poor in the short run.1 In some cases, the long run benefits, if any, of these programmes are sacrificed due to the high social costs in the short run. A number of studies, examining the impact of the observed macroeconomic impact of the Structural Adjustment Policies (StAP), report mixed impact on women. For example, on the one hand, Khan (1999) found an increasing trend in feminisation of agricultural labour2, and feminisation of poverty3 while Brown (1992), on the other hand, reports employment as a key factor in determining women’s empowerment and argues that some aspects of economic reforms hold for improvement in the long-run. The argument is based on the assumption that greater economic role for women offers protection and that employment itself mitigates against domestic violence. However, the overall effect of structural adjustment is difficult to measure as it varies across countries, across sectors, and across individuals within a household.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Globalisation and Inequality in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-89
Author(s):  
Jacques de Jongh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has had an unprecedented impact on the development and well-being of societies across the globe. Whilst the process has been lauded for bringing about greater trade specialisation and factor mobility many have also come to raise concerns on its impact in the distribution of resources. For South Africa in particular this has been somewhat of a contentious issue given the country's controversial past and idiosyncratic socio-economic structure. Since 1994 though, considerable progress towards its global integration has been made, however this has largely coincided with the establishment of, arguably, the highest levels of income inequality the world has ever seen. This all has raised several questions as to whether a more financially open and technologically integrated economy has induced greater within-country inequality (WCI). This study therefore has the objective to analyse the impact of the various dimensions of globalisation (economic, social and political) on inequality in South Africa. Secondary annual time series from 1990 to 2018 were used sourced from the World Bank Development indicators database, KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the World Inequality database. By using different measures of inequality (Palma ratios and distribution figures), the study employed two ARDL models to test the long-run relationships with the purpose to ensure the robustness of the results. Likewise, two error correction models (ECM) were used to analyse the short-run dynamics between the variables. As a means of identifying the casual effects between the variables, a Toda-Yamamoto granger causality analysis was utilised. Keywords: ARDL, Inequality, Economic Globalisation; Social Globalisation; South Africa

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

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