The impact of the COVID-19 enforced lockdown and fiscal package on the South African economy and environment: a preliminary analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu ◽  
Martin Henseler ◽  
Ramos Mabugu ◽  
Helene Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown and government fiscal plan, containing ‘green’ elements on the economy and the environment of South Africa. The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model operationalised using a social accounting matrix coupled with a greenhouse gas balance and emissions data. We find that while the economy is harshly impacted by the pandemic in the short term, the government fiscal package ameliorates and cushions the negative effects on poor households. Importantly, an adaptation of the fiscal package towards a ‘greener’ policy achieves the same economic outcome and reduces unemployment. Carbon dioxide emissions decrease in the short run due to economic slowdown. This improvement persists until 2030. These results can be used as decision support for policy makers on how to orient the post COVID-19 policies to be pro-poor and pro-environment, and thus, ‘build back better and fairer’.

The Impact of the Public Expenditure Cuts Policy on the Labor Market in Vietnam

2012 ◽  
pp. 22-46
Author(s):  
Huong Nguyen Thi Lan ◽  
Toan Pham Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of public expenditure cuts on employment and income to support policies for the development of the labor mar- ket. Impact evaluation is of interest for policy makers as well as researchers. This paper presents a method – that is based on a Computable General Equilibrium model – to analyse the impact of the public expenditure cuts policy on employment and income in industries and occupations in Vietnam using macro data, the Input output table, 2006, 2008 and the 2010 Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey.

scholarly journals The impact of tariff reduction on poverty in Zimbabwe, A CGE top-down approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Chitiga ◽  
R Mabugu
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Social Accounting Matrix ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses a relatively new approach to quantify the effects of trade liberalisation on poverty.  It relies on the combination of a standard, social accounting, matrix-based, computable general equilibrium model and household micro-data. These two tools are used sequentially in order to simulate the impact of trade policy reform.  This framework enables the decomposition of the effects of trade liberalisation, which in turn allows for an analysis of alternative social policy packages.  The methodology is applied to Zimbabwe for illustration.  The results show that poverty is reduced by tariff reduction, although the poor households get the least benefits.

The Effects of Reducing the Motor Fuels Excise Tax on Agriculture in the United States

1997 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63
Author(s):  
Noel D. Uri ◽  
Roy Boyd
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Diesel Fuel ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
The United States ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Motor Fuels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The analysis in this paper examines the impact of reducing the federal excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel on the United States economy in general and the agricultural sectors in particular. The analytical approach used in the analysis consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors. fourteen consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income and a government. The effects of a 4.3 cents per gallon reduction in the excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel in prices and quantities are examined. The results suggest. for example, a decrease in the tax would result in higher output by the producing sectors (by about $2.86 billion), a decline in output in the agricultural sectors of about 0.01 percent or $18.4 million. an expansion in the consumption of goods and services (by about $3.84 billion), and an increase in welfare (by about $3.59 billion). The government would realize a decrease in revenue of about $2.37 billion. When subjected to a sensitivity analysis. the results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the values of the substitution elasticities.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Fiscal Policy on Income and the Consumption of the Poor Households in Morocco: An Analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM)

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
El Moussaoui Mohamed ◽  
Mohamed Karim
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the effects of the fiscal policy on income and the consumption of the poor households in urban and rural areas. The evaluation of this impact is carried out by the use of a real and static Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM) in open economy and with government. The Social Accounting Matrix of the year 2013 is used for the supposed simulations.The results obtained show clearly that 50% direct tax reduction in income for the urban poor households and 100% for the rural ones make it possible to increase significantly the disposable income of these households as well as improving their consumption. On the other hand, the other policies such as exempting the agricultural and food commodities from the indirect tax, combined with 20% increase in this tax for the industrial products and the private services, or the exemption of the agricultural and food products from the customs duties, do not have a positive effect on the income and the consumption of the poor households.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic and environmental consequences of circular economy measures in a small open economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Brusselaers ◽  
K. Breemersch ◽  
T. Geerken ◽  
M. Christis ◽  
B. Lahcen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper investigates the economy-wide impact of the uptake of circular economy (CE) measures for the small open economy (SOE) of Belgium, in particular the impact of fiscal policies in support of lifetime extension through repair activities of household appliances. The impact assessment is completed by means of a computable general equilibrium model as this allows quantification of both the direct and indirect economic and environmental impact of simulated shocks. The results show that different fiscal policy types can steer an economy into a more circular direction. However, depending on the policy type, the impact on the SOE’s macroeconomic structure and level of circularity differs. Furthermore, common claims attributed to a CE (e.g. local job creation or decreased import dependence) can be, but are not always, valid. Hence, policy-makers must prioritize their most important macroeconomic goals and opt for an according fiscal policy. Finally, this paper finds that the CO2 equivalent emissions calculated from a production (or territorial) perspective increase, while they decrease from a consumption perspective. This is explained by the substitution of international activities by local circular activities. This comparative analysis advocates for the consumption approach to assess the CE’s impact on CO2 equivalent emissions.

scholarly journals Market efficiency and welfare effects of inter-sectoral water allocation in South Africa

Water Policy ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Juana ◽  
Kenneth M. Strzepek ◽  
Johann F. Kirsten
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Impact

The need for increased agricultural production to meet the growing demand for food, coupled with concerns for environmental sustainability, economic growth and poverty reduction has increased demand on the already scarce water in South Africa. At the same time, because of agriculture's minimal contribution, compared to the industrial and mining sectors, to South Africa's GDP and employment, the call to reallocate water from agriculture to non-agricultural use has been intensified. This study updates the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for South Africa and uses the computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of water reallocation from agriculture to the non-agricultural sectors on output growth, value added at factor cost, which captures the payments from the production sectors to the factors of production, and households' welfare. Using different water reallocation scenarios, the simulation results indicate that water reallocation from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors beyond the level of a market allocation scenario will lead to a decline in sectoral output and a significant deterioration in the welfare of poor households. It thus undermines development efforts aimed at reducing the existing level of poverty in the country.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

THE IMPACT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFOMANCE IN KENYA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-57
Author(s):  
John Githii Kimani ◽  
Dr. George Ruigu Ruigu
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Research Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of research and development investment/expenditure on the agricultural sector performance in Kenya.Methodology: The study took the peoples impact assessment direction. The data for this study was collected from various government agencies such as KARI, ASTI, Kenya Agricultural Sector Data compendium website, FAOSTAT, World Bank among others. Co-integration and error correction modeling methods were used in analyzing the data for this study.Results: Co-integration results for both the parsimonious and non-parsimonious model indicated that that there is a long-run relationship among the variables in the agriculture performance in Kenya. Further, findings in this study indicated that the variables under study were insignificant determinants of the long run Total Factor Productivity of the agricultural sector.  Meanwhile, Trade openness was the only significant determinant of the short run agricultural Total Factor Productivity.Unique Contribution to Policy and Practice: This study recommends the institutionalization of policies aimed at ensuring interaction between the various stakeholders in the agricultural sectors. This interaction will ensure that resources are better allocated to reduce duplication of research and dissemination activities. In addition, greater collaboration among the stakeholders will promote and strengthen the connection between research, policy and the application of research findings. The study further advocates that the government should follow a trade liberazation oriented approach to the agricultural sector as opposed to a trade tightening approach.

Earnings, EITC, and Employment Responses to a $15 Minimum Wage: Will Low-Income Workers Be Better Off?

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 331-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahad Fahimullah ◽  
Yi Geng ◽  
Bradley Hardy ◽  
Daniel Muhammad ◽  
Jeffrey Wilkins
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Perfect Competition ◽  
Tax Credit ◽  
Wage Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
The City

The District of Columbia will increase its minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2020. The city also provides a local refundable earned income tax credit (EITC) equal to 40% of the federal EITC. Using a computable general equilibrium model, the authors estimate the economic impact of the $15 wage policy. They also use a tax policy microsimulation model to estimate how the city’s EITC interacts with a higher minimum wage. Overall, the authors find that the higher minimum wage will produce significant income gains for most of the city’s low-wage workers, with relatively few job losses. Additionally, they forecast that most city EITC recipients will receive a lower EITC, but higher earnings more than offset the reduced tax credit. The model predicts that this policy change would largely be funded by higher consumer prices, lower firm profits, and higher business productivity. These predictions are subject to important caveats, including a local labor market that is likely inadequately characterized in a model assuming perfect competition. Economic policy makers should therefore use such modeling approaches as a powerful but ultimately imperfect tool.

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