scholarly journals An analysis of history and recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the Hagiwara fault, Atera fault system, by the trench excavation survey

1987 ◽  
Vol 96 (5) ◽  
pp. 322-325
Author(s):  
Atsumasa OKADA ◽  
Yasuo AWATA ◽  
Koji OKUMURA ◽  
Masami TOGO
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-84
Author(s):  
Charlotte Pizer ◽  
Kate Clark ◽  
Jamie Howarth ◽  
Ed Garrett ◽  
Xiaoming Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Geological records of subduction earthquakes, essential for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, are difficult to obtain at transitional plate boundaries, because upper-plate fault earthquake deformation can mask the subduction zone signal. Here, we examine unusual shell layers within a paleolagoon at Lake Grassmere, at the transition zone between the Hikurangi subduction zone and the Marlborough fault system. Based on biostratigraphic and sedimentological analyses, we interpret the shell layers as tsunami deposits. These are dated at 2145–1837 and 1505–1283 yr B.P., and the most likely source of these tsunamis was ruptures of the southern Hikurangi subduction interface. Identification of these two large earthquakes brings the total record of southern Hikurangi subduction earthquakes to four in the past 2000 yr. For the first time, it is possible to obtain a geologically constrained recurrence interval for the southern Hikurangi subduction zone. We calculate a recurrence interval of 500 yr (335–655 yr, 95% confidence interval) and a coefficient of variation of 0.27 (0.0–0.47, 95% confidence interval). The probability of a large subduction earthquake on the southern Hikurangi subduction zone is 26% within the next 50 yr. We find no consistent temporal relationship between subduction earthquakes and large earthquakes on upper-plate faults.


2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 264-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoshi Ide ◽  
◽  
Hideo Aochi ◽  

Earthquakes occur in a complex hierarchical fault system, meaning that a realistic mechanically-consistent model is required to describe heterogeneity simply and over a wide scale. We developed a simple conceptual mechanical model using fractal circular patches associated with fracture energy on a fault plane. This model explains the complexity and scaling relation in the dynamic rupture process. We also show that such a fractal patch model is useful in simulating longterm seismicity in a hierarchal fault system by using external loading. In these studies, an earthquake of any magnitude appears as a completely random cascade growing from a small patch to larger patches. This model is thus potentially useful as a benchmarking scenario for evaluating probabilistic gain in probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The model is applied to the real case of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on prior information from a seismicity catalog to reproduce the complex rupture process of this very large earthquake and its resulting ground motion. Provided that a high-quality seismicity catalog is available for other regions, similar approach using this conceptual model may provide scenarios for other potential large earthquakes.


2003 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1125-1138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng-Kang SHEN ◽  
Yong-Ge WAN ◽  
Wei-Jun GAN ◽  
Yue-Hua ZENG ◽  
Qun REN

2015 ◽  
Vol 86 (5) ◽  
pp. 1345-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Grant Ludwig ◽  
James N. Brune ◽  
Abdolrasool Anooshehpoor ◽  
Matthew D. Purvance ◽  
Richard J. Brune ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
pp. 2182-2191
Author(s):  
Olaf Zielke ◽  
Danijel Schorlemmer ◽  
Sigurjon Jónsson ◽  
Paul Martin Mai

Abstract The thickness of the seismogenic zone in the Earth’s crust plays an important role in seismotectonics, affecting fault-system architecture and relative fault activity, earthquake size and distribution within a fault system, as well as long-term accumulation of tectonic deformation. Within the last two decades, several studies have revealed that aftershocks of large continental earthquakes may occur below the background depth of the seismogenic zone, that is, below the seismic–aseismic transition zone. This observation may be explained with a strain- and strain-rate-induced shift in rheological behavior that follows large mainshocks, transiently changing the deformation style below the seismogenic zone from incipient ductile to seismically brittle failure. As large earthquakes transiently deepen the seismic–aseismic transition zone, it is plausible to assume that larger mainshocks may cause stronger deepening than smaller mainshocks. Corresponding observations, however, have not yet been reported. Here, we use well-located seismic catalogs from Alaska, California, Japan, and Turkey to analyze if mainshock size positively correlates with the amount of transient deepening of the seismic–aseismic transition zone. We compare the depths of background seismicity with aftershock depths of 16 continental strike-slip earthquakes (6≤M≤7.8) and find that large mainshocks do cause stronger transient deepening than moderate-size mainshocks. We further suggest that this deepening effect also applies to the mainshocks themselves, with larger mainshock coseismic ruptures being capable of extending deeper into the normally aseismic zone. This understanding may help address fundamental questions of earthquake-source physics such as the assumed scale invariance of earthquake stress drop and whether fault-slip scales with rupture length or rupture width.


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