Foreign Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: a Test of Policy Arbitrage

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-32
Author(s):  
Anand Shetty ◽  
John Manley
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Foreign Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
Mexican Peso

Private capital that dominated the foreign capital inflows to emerging markets in the 1990s has been linked to recent financial crises in these markets. This linkage has raised questions about the market’s ability to discipline the flow of capital to emerging markets and the role of policy arbitrage. Policy-arbitrage hypothesis states that international capital flows will arbitrage across national economic policies in search of sound markets. This paper examines the pattern of changes in the foreign capital inflows to emerging markets in the 1990s and tests the policy-arbitrage hypothesis using 22 country-data for a period immediately following the Mexican peso crisis. The test results support the policy-arbitrage hypothesis.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation on Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Development in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 63-76
Author(s):  
G. Tunde, Monogbe ◽  
J. Emeka, Okereke ◽  
P. Ebele, Ifionu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows

In an attempt to attained sustainable level of economic development in a nation, empirical studies as well as financial theories posit that foreign capital inflows play a lead role. As such, this study set out to empirically investigate the extent to which foreign capital flows promotes economic development in Nigeria. Time series data between the periods 1986 to 2018 were sourced from the central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and world bank data based. The study proxied foreign capital flows using foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, foreign aids and external borrowings which is decomposed into multilateral and bilateral loans while Human development index is used as proxy for economic development. The study further employed unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model and granger causality test to ascertain the direction of relationship. Findings reveal that of the five indices of foreign capital inflows, three (foreign  portfolio investment, foreign aids and bilateral loan) prove to be significant in promoting economic development in Nigeria, while foreign direct investment and multilateral loan are negatively  related to economic development in Nigeria. As such, the study conclude that foreign capital inflows in the form of foreign portfolio investment, foreign aids and bilateral loans are significant in boosting economic development in Nigeria. Therefore, we recommend that managers of the Nigerian economic should create an enabling financial environment as this will help in accelerating further inflows of portfolio investment and thus boost economic development in Nigeria.

Managing Temporary Capital Inflows: Lessons from Asia and Latin America (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (4I) ◽  
pp. 395-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Reisen
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Supply Curve ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Current Output ◽  
Foreign Capital Flows ◽  
Capital Rationing

As witnessed by Mexico and Argentina in 1995 and by the Southern Cone countries of Latin America in the early 1980s, the macroeconomic adjustment to a sudden reversal of foreign capital flows can be extremely painful. There are at least four major reasons why governments and central banks should care about the sustainability of the capital flows which their economies can tap abroad: • First, international capital markets are highly imperfect due to enforcement problems and information asymmetries. Trade in financial assets, unlike trade in goods, is incomplete and intertemporal, based on promises to pay in the future. The time lag between financial transaction and contract completion, coupled with incomplete insurance markets and other distortions, can generate abrupt and destabilising market corrections. Financial markets often do not discipline the recipient countries when the latter do not face an upward supply curve for foreign capital but rather face a horizontal supply curve due to currency appreciation and falling spreads charged by lenders, until capital rationing sets in [Devlin et al. (1994)] . • Second, any shortfall in capital inflows will require immediate cutbacks in domestic absorption to restore external balance. The savings-investment balance is more likely to be achieved through cuts in investment than through higher savings in the short term, compromising future output levels. Current output levels fall to the extent that rigidities prevent resource reallocation [Devlin et al. (1994)], so that contractionary disabsorption effects outweigh expansionary substitution effects.

scholarly journals The impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices: a threshold VAR approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 87-104
Author(s):  
Boubekeur Baba ◽  
Güven Sevil
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea. Design/methodology/approach The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of large and low inflows of foreign capital. Then, structural impulse-response analysis is used to check whether the responses of the variables differ across the estimated regimes. The model is estimated using quarterly data of foreign capital inflows, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index, credit to the private non-financial sector, real effective exchange rate (REER), stock returns and house prices. Findings The main findings suggest that large inflows of gross foreign capital, foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are ineffective to boost economic growth, but large inflows of other foreign investments (OFIs) significantly contribute to GDP. The decreases in the foreign capital inflows are associated with larger depreciation of REER. The large inflows of gross foreign capital, FDI and OFIs are associated with further expansion of credit supply to private non-financial sectors. Research limitations/implications The policy implications of foreign capital inflows are of particular importance to all the emerging markets alike. However, the empirical analysis is limited to the case of South Korea due to various reasons. The experience with international capital inflows among emerging markets is heterogeneous. Therefore, it would be better to take each case of emerging market individually. In addition, TVAR analysis requires a long data sample, which unfortunately is not available for most of the emerging markets. Originality/value The foreign capital inflows are shown to be procyclical and notoriously volatile in many studies. Nevertheless, this topic has commonly been studied using linear VAR models, which do not properly deal with the cyclical characteristics of foreign capital inflows. This study attempts to resolve these methodological limitations by examining a non-linear VAR model that is capable of capturing the structural breaks associated with the cyclical behaviors of foreign capital inflows.

scholarly journals Impact of Capital Inflows on Domestic Investment: Evidence from Panel Data

2020 ◽  
Vol V (I) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Mansoor Mushtaq ◽  
Sania Shaheen ◽  
Irfan Hussain Khan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows

Investment significance in any country cannot be ignored for its direct and indirect influences on the growth rate of the economy. Foreign capital inflows are one of the major determinants of domestic private investment. Hence, this study analyzes the effect of two kinds of foreign capital inflows, i.e. inward foreign direct investment and inward foreign remittances on domestic investment covering a sample of five South Asian economies from 1976 to 2017. The findings of the study reveal that both types of capital inflows raise the domestic investment and the role of remaining variables on investment is also positive and significant. The study recommended that steps should be undertaken to increase these foreign capital inflows to raise the domestic investment in these countries.

The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Levan Efremidze ◽  
Sungsoo Kim ◽  
Ozan Sula ◽  
Thomas D. Willett
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Sudden Stops ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Capital Flows ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Flow Reversals ◽  
Capital Flow Reversals

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops. Design/methodology/approach Emphasizing the importance of looking at the behavior of domestic as well as foreign capital flows, the authors distinguish sudden stops from capital flow reversals by attributing the former to foreign capital flows only. Findings It is found that, despite the large differences in the number of surges identified by several different measures in the literature, a majority of surges do end in reversals of some type. The percentages tend to be slightly over half for surges in net capital flows, but on average, 70 per cent of gross surges end in sudden stops. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, approximately half of sudden stops and net capital flow reversals are not preceded by surges. It is also found that surges that persist longer are more likely to turn into sudden stops and reversals. Research limitations/implications The authors find substantial empirical differences in the characteristics of sudden stops (based on gross foreign flows) and reversals (based on net flows). Practical implications Large inflows of financial capital are not always a strong indicator that a country’s economic policies will continue to provide stability in the future. They may signal an increase rather than reduction in the risk of future instability. Originality/value This study focuses on an issue that has been less explored to date, the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops. The authors distinguish, redefine and document differences among capital flow reversals and sudden stops. Duration of surges is related to the likelihood of having reversals and sudden stops.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document