BUBBLE PREDICTION AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EMERGING AND MATURE MARKETS

By analyzing the financial bubbles, it can be observed that every bubble burst causes financial turmoil and severe economic recession. The paper utilize the technical analysis indicators for providing warning conditions for predicting the stock market bubbles. The significance of the technical analysis indicators are that they can provide early warning system for financial crisis and can help in avoiding such problems. We applied the early warning technical indicators to the stock market of US, South Korea, Brazil, China, Germany, and Japan for the period of 1995 to 2018. We also made comparison of the bubble warning conditions of emerging markets and the mature markets. The standard bubble warning conditions include K value 90, Bias 10%, and RSI value of 90. Empirical results shows that mature market shows less degree of volatility and lowering the warning baseline can improve the accuracy of bubble predictions. Furthermore, results shows that mature markets bursting time is about 6 months while in emerging market, the time is reduced to only 3 months. These results also indicate that mature market has good antirisk ability compare to the emerging markets.

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Human Resource Management in Emerging Markets

The Oxford Handbook of Contextual Approaches to Human Resource Management ◽

10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190861162.013.6 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 113-133

Author(s):

Frank M. Horwitz ◽

Fang Lee Cooke ◽

Ken N. Kamoche

Keyword(s):

Resource Management ◽

Human Resource Management ◽

Emerging Markets ◽

Human Resource ◽

Third World ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Cross Cultural ◽

Cultural Perspectives ◽

Theoretical Approaches ◽

Mature Market

Originally coined as a term for a grouping of developing countries which that were neither mature market economies nor “Third World” and with earlier linked terminologies, emerging markets reflect an evolving and diverse literature with a series of opportunities, encompassing the purely theoretical through to the methodological and the analytical. This chapter provides an overview examination of such theoretical approaches, indicating where there might be similarities, differences, or advantages to deploying multiple approaches to better understand the complexity and diversity of human resource management in these contexts. Examples of research using these approaches are given. The theoretical approaches include institutional theory, cross-cultural perspectives, emerging market multinational companies internationalization perspectives, the Afro-Asian nexus, resource and social capital perspectives, the postcolonial approach, and an examination of hybrid models. The latter may include similarities, convergence, and the interplay between one or more of these approaches.

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Designing an Early Warning System for Stock Market Crashes by Using ANFIS

Surveillance Technologies and Early Warning Systems ◽

10.4018/978-1-61692-865-0.ch006 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 109-127

Author(s):

Murat Acar ◽

Dilek Karahoca ◽

Adem Karahoca

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Early Warning ◽

Fuzzy Inference System ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Fuzzy Inference ◽

Warning System ◽

Market Volatility ◽

Stock Market Volatility ◽

Inference System ◽

Market Crashes

This chapter focuses on building a financial early warning system (EWS) to predict stock market crashes by using stock market volatility and rising stock prices. The relation of stock market volatility with stock market crashes is analyzed empirically. Also, Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) national 100 index data used to achieve better results from the view point of modeling purpose. A risk indicator of stock market crash is computed to predict crashes and to give an early warning signal. Various data mining classifiers are compared to obtain the best practical solution for the financial early warning system. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model was proposed to forecast stock market crashes efficiently. Also, ANFIS was explained in detail as a training tool for the EWS. The empirical results show that the fuzzy inference system has advantages to gain successful results for financial crashes.

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LONG-TERM MEMORY IN EMERGING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making ◽

10.1142/s0219622006002088 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 05 (03) ◽

pp. 495-501 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

CHAOQUN MA ◽

HONGQUAN LI ◽

LIN ZOU ◽

ZHIJIAN WU

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Emerging Markets ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Long Term Memory ◽

Chinese Stock Market ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Term Memory ◽

Rescaled Range Analysis

The notion of long-term memory has received considerable attention in empirical finance. This paper makes two main contributions. First one is, the paper provides evidence of long-term memory dynamics in the equity market of China. An analysis of market patterns in the Chinese market (a typical emerging market) instead of US market (a developed market) will be meaningful because little research on the behaviors of emerging markets has been carried out previously. Second one is, we present a comprehensive research on the long-term memory characteristics in the Chinese stock market returns as well as volatilities. While many empirical results have been obtained on the detection of long-term memory in returns series, very few investigations are focused on the market volatility, though the long-term dependence in volatility may lead to some types of volatility persistence as observed in financial markets and affect volatility forecasts and derivative pricing formulas. By means of using modified rescaled range analysis and Autoregressive Fractally Integrated Moving Average model testing, this study examines the long-term dependence in Chinese stock market returns and volatility. The results show that although the returns themselves contain little serial correlation, the variability of returns has significant long-term dependence. It would be beneficial to encompass long-term memory structure to assess the behavior of stock prices and to research on financial market theory.

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Book Review: Morris Goldstein, Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart, Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets (Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 2000, 134 pp., no price given)

Millennium Journal of International Studies ◽

10.1177/03058298010300020419 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 422-424

Author(s):

Charlotte Brink

Keyword(s):

Emerging Markets ◽

Early Warning ◽

International Economics ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

Washington Dc ◽

Financial Vulnerability

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Early warning on stock market bubbles via methods of optimization, clustering and inverse problems

Annals of Operations Research ◽

10.1007/s10479-017-2496-1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 260 (1-2) ◽

pp. 293-320 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Efsun Kürüm ◽

Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber ◽

Cem Iyigun

Keyword(s):

Inverse Problems ◽

Stock Market ◽

Early Warning ◽

Stock Market Bubbles

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Emerging Market Firms’ Response to U.S. Economic Recession and the Subsequent Period’s Performance

International Journal of Applied Management and Technology ◽

10.5590/ijamt.2021.20.1.05 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

TeWhan Hahn ◽

Ravi Chinta

Keyword(s):

Emerging Markets ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Operating Performance ◽

Economic Recession ◽

Resource Constrained ◽

Study Methodology ◽

Emerging Market Firms ◽

Strategy Variables ◽

The Impact ◽

The U.S

We investigated the changes in behaviors of firms in emerging markets in response to the U.S. economic recession and the impact of those changes in strategic behaviors on subsequent periods’ operating performances. Specifically, we adopted an event-study methodology, using a sample of emerging market firms, to investigate the nature of the effects of the U.S. economic recession on firms in emerging markets. Based on 5,887 firms in nine emerging countries, our results show that firms in emerging markets exhibit changes in strategy variables, and those changes have a significant effect on the subsequent periods’ operating performance. In addition, we found that the impact of changes in strategy variables on the subsequent periods’ operating performance is stronger among more resource-unconstrained firms than among more resource-constrained firms. We ascribe this latter finding to the lack of slack resources that are necessary to make changes in strategy variables during the aftermath of the global economic recession for more resource-constrained firms.

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Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts

Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative Science ◽

10.1108/jefas-09-2018-0088 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 24 (48) ◽

pp. 241-265

Author(s):

Júlio Lobão

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Emerging Markets ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Seasonal Effects ◽

Price Dynamics ◽

American Depository Receipts ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Content Type ◽

Depository Receipts ◽

Financial Events

Purpose The literature provides extensive evidence for seasonality in stock market returns, but is almost non-existent concerning the potential seasonality in American depository receipts (ADRs). To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine a number of seasonal effects in the market for ADRs. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines four ADRs for the period from April 1999 to March 2017 to look for signs of eight important seasonal anomalies. The authors follow the standard methodology of using dummy variables for the time period of interest to capture excess returns. For comparison, the same analysis on two US stock market indices is conducted. Findings The results show the presence of a highly significant pre-holiday effect in all return series, which does not seem to be justified by risk. Moreover, turn-of-the-month effects, monthly effects and day-of-the-week effects were detected in some of the ADRs. The seasonality patterns under analysis tended to be stronger in emerging market-based ADRs. Research limitations/implications Overall, the results show that significant seasonal patterns were present in the price dynamics of ADRs. Moreover, the findings lend support to the idea that emerging markets are less efficient than developed stock markets. Originality/value This is the most comprehensive study to date for indication of seasonal anomalies in the market for ADRs. The authors use an extensive sample that includes recent significant financial events such as the 2007/2008 financial crisis and consider ADRs with different characteristics, which allows to draw comparisons between the differential price dynamics arising in developed market-based ADRs and in the ADRs whose underlying securities are traded in emerging markets.

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