scholarly journals Revisiting Twomey's approximation for peak supersaturation

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 3803-3814 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Shipway
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lookup Table ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
Closed Expression ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Thermodynamic Conditions ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Abstract. Twomey's seminal 1959 paper provided lower and upper bound approximations to the estimation of peak supersaturation within an updraft and thus provides the first closed expression for the number of nucleated cloud droplets. The form of this approximation is simple, but provides a surprisingly good estimate and has subsequently been employed in more sophisticated treatments of nucleation parametrization. In the current paper, we revisit the lower bound approximation of Twomey and make a small adjustment that can be used to obtain a more accurate calculation of peak supersaturation under all potential aerosol loadings and thermodynamic conditions. In order to make full use of this improved approximation, the underlying integro-differential equation for supersaturation evolution and the condition for calculating peak supersaturation are examined. A simple rearrangement of the algebra allows for an expression to be written down that can then be solved with a single lookup table with only one independent variable for an underlying lognormal aerosol population. While multimodal aerosol with N different dispersion characteristics requires 2N+1 inputs to calculate the activation fraction, only N of these one-dimensional lookup tables are needed. No additional information is required in the lookup table to deal with additional chemical, physical or thermodynamic properties. The resulting implementation provides a relatively simple, yet computationally cheap, physically based parametrization of droplet nucleation for use in climate and Numerical Weather Prediction models.

scholarly journals Revisiting Twomey's approximation for peak supersaturation

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 25901-25930
Author(s):  
B. J. Shipway
Keyword(s):  
Lookup Table ◽  
Accurate Calculation ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
Closed Expression ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Droplet Nucleation ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Thermodynamic Conditions ◽  
Independent Variable

Abstract. Twomey's seminal 1959 paper provided lower and upper bound approximations to the estimation of peak supersaturation within an updraft and thus provides the first closed expression for the number of nucleated cloud droplets. The form of this approximation is simple, but provides a surprisingly good estimate and has subsequently been employed in more sophisticated treatments of nucleation parametrization. In the current paper, we revisit the lower bound approximation of Twomey and make a small adjustment which can be used to obtain a more accurate calculation of peak supersaturation under all potential aerosol loadings and thermodynamic conditions. In order to make full use of this improved approximation, the underlying integro-differential equation for supersaturation evolution and the condition for calculating peak supersaturation are examined. A simple rearrangement of the algebra allows for an expression to be written down which can then be solved with a single lookup table with only one independent variable for an underlying lognormal aerosol population. Multimode aerosol with only N different dispersion characteristics require only N of these one-dimensional lookup tables. No additional information is required in the lookup table to deal with additional chemical, physical or thermodynamic properties. The resulting implementation provides a relatively simple, yet computationally cheap and very accurate physically-based parametrization of droplet nucleation for use in climate and NWP models.

Forecasting of Tornadoes and Downbursts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djordje Romanic
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Extreme Wind Speeds ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Tornadoes and downbursts cause extreme wind speeds that often present a threat to human safety, structures, and the environment. While the accuracy of weather forecasts has increased manifold over the past several decades, the current numerical weather prediction models are still not capable of explicitly resolving tornadoes and small-scale downbursts in their operational applications. This chapter describes some of the physical (e.g., tornadogenesis and downburst formation), mathematical (e.g., chaos theory), and computational (e.g., grid resolution) challenges that meteorologists currently face in tornado and downburst forecasting.

scholarly journals Parametrizations of Liquid and Ice Clouds’ Optical Properties in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Harel. B. Muskatel ◽  
Ulrich Blahak ◽  
Pavel Khain ◽  
Yoav Levi ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Radiation Transfer ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Effective Size ◽  
Asymmetry Factor ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models ◽  
Spectral Averaging

Parametrization of radiation transfer through clouds is an important factor in the ability of Numerical Weather Prediction models to correctly describe the weather evolution. Here we present a practical parameterization of both liquid droplets and ice optical properties in the longwave and shortwave radiation. An advanced spectral averaging method is used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, forward scattered fraction and asymmetry factor (bext, v, f, g), taking into account the nonlinear effects of light attenuation in the spectral averaging. An ensemble of particle size distributions was used for the ice optical properties calculations, which enables the effective size range to be extended up to 570 μm and thus be applicable for larger hydrometeor categories such as snow, graupel, and rain. The new parameterization was applied both in the COSMO limited-area model and in ICON global model and was evaluated by using the COSMO model to simulate stratiform ice and water clouds. Numerical weather prediction models usually determine the asymmetry factor as a function of effective size. For the first time in an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the asymmetry factor is parametrized as a function of aspect ratio. The method is generalized and is available on-line to be readily applied to any optical properties dataset and spectral intervals of a wide range of radiation transfer models and applications.

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (14-15) ◽  
pp. 1841-1863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Roulston ◽  
Jerome Ellepola ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Leonard A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Numerical Prediction of Submesoscale Flow in the Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer over Complex Terrain

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
pp. 956-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nelson L. Seaman ◽  
Brian J. Gaudet ◽  
David R. Stauffer ◽  
Larry Mahrt ◽  
Scott J. Richardson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Stable Boundary Layers ◽  
Stable Boundary ◽  
Central Pennsylvania ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Abstract Numerical weather prediction models often perform poorly for weakly forced, highly variable winds in nocturnal stable boundary layers (SBLs). When used as input to air-quality and dispersion models, these wind errors can lead to large errors in subsequent plume forecasts. Finer grid resolution and improved model numerics and physics can help reduce these errors. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF) has higher-order numerics that may improve predictions of finescale winds (scales <~20 km) in nocturnal SBLs. However, better understanding of the physics controlling SBL flow is needed to take optimal advantage of advanced modeling capabilities. To facilitate ARW-WRF evaluations, a small network of instrumented towers was deployed in the ridge-and-valley topography of central Pennsylvania (PA). Time series of local observations and model forecasts on 1.333- and 0.444-km grids were filtered to isolate deterministic lower-frequency wind components. The time-filtered SBL winds have substantially reduced root-mean-square errors and biases, compared to raw data. Subkilometer horizontal and very fine vertical resolutions are found to be important for reducing model speed and direction errors. Nonturbulent fluctuations in unfiltered, very finescale winds, parts of which may be resolvable by ARW-WRF, are shown to generate horizontal meandering in stable weakly forced conditions. These submesoscale motions include gravity waves, primarily horizontal 2D motions, and other complex signatures. Vertical structure and low-level biases of SBL variables are shown to be sensitive to parameter settings defining minimum “background” mixing in very stable conditions in two representative turbulence schemes.

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