scholarly journals Computation and analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide annual mean growth rates from satellite observations during 2003–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 17355-17370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
Maximilian Reuter ◽  
Oliver Schneising ◽  
Stefan Noël ◽  
Bettina Gier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reflects the net effect of emissions and uptake resulting from anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks. Annual mean CO2 growth rates have been determined from satellite retrievals of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2, i.e. XCO2, for the years 2003 to 2016. The XCO2 growth rates agree with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) growth rates from CO2 surface observations within the uncertainty of the satellite-derived growth rates (mean difference ± standard deviation: 0.0±0.3 ppm year−1; R: 0.82). This new and independent data set confirms record-large growth rates of around 3 ppm year−1 in 2015 and 2016, which are attributed to the 2015–2016 El Niño. Based on a comparison of the satellite-derived growth rates with human CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, we estimate by how much the impact of ENSO dominates the impact of fossil-fuel-burning-related emissions in explaining the variance of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Our analysis shows that the ENSO impact on CO2 growth rate variations dominates that of human emissions throughout the period 2003–2016 but in particular during the period 2010–2016 due to strong La Niña and El Niño events. Using the derived growth rates and their uncertainties, we estimate the probability that the impact of ENSO on the variability is larger than the impact of human emissions to be 63 % for the time period 2003–2016. If the time period is restricted to 2010–2016, this probability increases to 94 %.

scholarly journals Computation and analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide annual mean growth rates from satellite observations during 2003–2016

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
Maximilian Reuter ◽  
Oliver Schneising ◽  
Stefan Noël ◽  
Bettina Gier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reflects the net effect of emissions and uptake resulting from anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks. Annual mean CO2 growth rates have been determined globally and for selected latitude bands from satellite retrievals of column-average dry-air mole fractions of CO2, i.e., XCO2, for the years 2003 to 2016. The global XCO2 growth rates agree with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) growth rates from CO2 surface observations within the uncertainty of the satellite-derived growth rates (mean difference ± standard deviation: 0.0 ± 0.24 ppm/year; R: 0.87). This new and independent data set confirms record large growth rates around 3 ppm/year in 2015 and 2016, which are attributed to the 2015/2016 El Niño. Based on a comparison of the satellite-derived growth rates with human CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, we estimate by how much the impact of ENSO dominates the impact of fossil fuel burning related emissions in explaining the variance of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, the Southern Oscillation, and the Weak 1975 El Nino

Science ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 210 (4465) ◽  
pp. 66-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. B. BACASTOW ◽  
J. A. ADAMS ◽  
C. D. KEELING ◽  
D. J. MOSS ◽  
T. P. WHORF ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

scholarly journals The Influence of Ocean Thermocline Temperatures on the Earth’s Surface Climate

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 2222-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Oglesby ◽  
Monica Y. Stephens ◽  
Barry Saltzman
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A coupled mixed layer–atmospheric general circulation model has been used to evaluate the impact of ocean thermocline temperatures (and by proxy those of the deep ocean) on the surface climate of the earth. Particular attention has been devoted to temperature regimes both warmer and cooler than at present. The mixed layer ocean model (MLOM) simulates vertical dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean, including wind mixing and buoyancy effects, and has been coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Simulations were made with globally uniform thermocline warmings of +2°, +5°, and +10°C, as well as a globally uniform cooling of −5°C. A simulation was made with latitudinally varying changes in thermocline temperature such that the warming at mid- and high latitudes is much larger than at low latitudes. In all simulations, the response of surface temperature over both land and ocean was larger than that expected just as a result of the imposed thermocline temperature change, largely because of water vapor feedbacks. In this respect, the simulations were similar to those in which only changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were imposed. In fact, when carbon dioxide was explicitly changed along with thermocline temperatures, the results were not much different than if only the thermocline temperatures were altered. Land versus ocean differences are explained largely by latent heat flux differences: the ocean is an infinite evaporative source, while land can be quite dry. The latitudinally varying case has a much larger response at mid- to high latitudes than at low latitudes; the high latitudes actually appear to effectively warm the low latitudes. Simulations exploring scenarios of glacial inception suggest that the deep ocean alone is not likely to be a key trigger but must operate in conjunction with other forcings, such as reduced carbon dioxide. Moist upland regions at mid- and high latitudes, and land regions adjacent to perennial sea ice, are the preferred locations for glacial inception in these runs. Finally, the model combination equilibrates very rapidly, meaning that a large number of simulations can be made for a fairly modest computational cost. A drawback to this is greatly reduced sensitivity to parameters such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which requires a full response of the ocean. Thus, this approach can be considered intermediate between fixing, or prescribing, sea surface temperatures and a fully coupled modeling approach.

scholarly journals Re-evaluating the 1940s CO<sub>2</sub> plateau

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4877-4897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. The high-resolution CO2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940–1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO2 growth rate during the plateau period, as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO2 plateau epoch of 1940–1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr−1, depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr−1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940–1942 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mismatch between observed and modelled CO2 growth rate during the CO2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OSCAR (v2.2) model indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during the Second World War) could contribute to the additional sink required. Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO2 sinks.

scholarly journals Re-evaluating the 1940s CO<sub>2</sub> plateau

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Jonathan Barichivitch ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. The high-resolution CO2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO2 plateau). This stalling implies the persistence of a sink of the same magnitude as the concurrent fossil fuel emissions, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. This sink has been previously attributed to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940–42. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth-rates of atmospheric CO2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project. Evaluating whether these datasets provide further insight about the 1940s plateau and its causes, we find that, they give a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards, but they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO2 growth rate during the plateau period, as well as in the 1960s. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO2 plateau epoch of 1940–1950 ranges between 0.9–2.0 Pg C yr−1, depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by: i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used; ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models; iii) land-use change processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr−1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940–42 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mismatch between observed and modelled CO2 growth rate during the CO2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OSCAR (v2.2) model, indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during WW2) could contribute to the additional sink required.Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century, and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO2 sinks.

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