Global distributions of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the fossil-fuel era: A projection

Abstract. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reflects the net effect of emissions and uptake resulting from anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks. Annual mean CO2 growth rates have been determined from satellite retrievals of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2, i.e. XCO2, for the years 2003 to 2016. The XCO2 growth rates agree with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) growth rates from CO2 surface observations within the uncertainty of the satellite-derived growth rates (mean difference ± standard deviation: 0.0±0.3 ppm year−1; R: 0.82). This new and independent data set confirms record-large growth rates of around 3 ppm year−1 in 2015 and 2016, which are attributed to the 2015–2016 El Niño. Based on a comparison of the satellite-derived growth rates with human CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, we estimate by how much the impact of ENSO dominates the impact of fossil-fuel-burning-related emissions in explaining the variance of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Our analysis shows that the ENSO impact on CO2 growth rate variations dominates that of human emissions throughout the period 2003–2016 but in particular during the period 2010–2016 due to strong La Niña and El Niño events. Using the derived growth rates and their uncertainties, we estimate the probability that the impact of ENSO on the variability is larger than the impact of human emissions to be 63 % for the time period 2003–2016. If the time period is restricted to 2010–2016, this probability increases to 94 %.

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A theoretical approach to the Suess effect

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A - Mathematical and Physical Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspa.1970.0141 ◽

1970 ◽

Vol 318 (1533) ◽

pp. 213-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Industrial Revolution ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

Past Century ◽

Suess Effect ◽

Carbon 14 ◽

Specific Activities ◽

Atmospheric Carbon

From a theoretical study of the production and distribution of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution calculations have been made of the resultant decreases in atmospheric carbon-14 specific activities (Suess effect). The calculations are based on recent advances in the assessment of parameters which control carbon circulation and a re-evaluation of the combustion rates of fossil fuels. Results show that the reduction in carbon-14 specific activities amounted to -0.5, -3.2 and -5.9 % in A. D. 1890, 1950 and 1969 respectively. Analyses of biospheric materials of known age show good agreement between the predicted and observed atmospheric carbon -14 concentrations although the possibility exists of a perturbation of natural origin. The incorporation of significant amounts of fossil fuel carbon into 1890 wood indicates the possibility of error in radiocarbon analyses based on the conventional modern reference material. The study also enables corrections to be made for the Suess effect to observations of carbon -14 activities of samples grown during the past century. Predictions of future consumption of fossil fuels have permitted evaluation of the approximate magnitude of the future Suess effect. The results imply that the effect will be of increasing importance, reaching about -23% by 2000 and -50 % by 2025. The Suess effect, which is in competition with the nuclear bomb effect, may therefore reduce atmospheric carbon -14 concentration to the natural level again by 1990. Future increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could have significant climatological consequences, but the magnitude of these changes remains speculative.

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The Effect of Fossil Fuel and Biogenic CO2 on the 13C and 14C Content of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Radiocarbon ◽

10.1017/s0033822200009681 ◽

1980 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 392-397 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

W G Mook

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

Clean Air ◽

C Value ◽

Atmospheric Carbon

The normalization of a measured δ14C value of atmospheric CO2 to a δ13C value of − 25‰ does not take into account the presence of fossil fuel and biogenic CO2. In this paper, we try to assess these contaminations as well as the proper 14C content of “clean air”.

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Computation and analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide annual mean growth rates from satellite observations during 2003–2016

10.5194/acp-2018-158 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michael Buchwitz ◽

Maximilian Reuter ◽

Oliver Schneising ◽

Stefan Noël ◽

Bettina Gier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Growth Rates ◽

El Niño ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

El Nino ◽

Data Set ◽

Atmospheric Carbon ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reflects the net effect of emissions and uptake resulting from anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks. Annual mean CO2 growth rates have been determined globally and for selected latitude bands from satellite retrievals of column-average dry-air mole fractions of CO2, i.e., XCO2, for the years 2003 to 2016. The global XCO2 growth rates agree with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) growth rates from CO2 surface observations within the uncertainty of the satellite-derived growth rates (mean difference ± standard deviation: 0.0 ± 0.24 ppm/year; R: 0.87). This new and independent data set confirms record large growth rates around 3 ppm/year in 2015 and 2016, which are attributed to the 2015/2016 El Niño. Based on a comparison of the satellite-derived growth rates with human CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, we estimate by how much the impact of ENSO dominates the impact of fossil fuel burning related emissions in explaining the variance of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate.

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Mitigation

10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199941339.013.41 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Henry Shue

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Ocean Acidification ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Alternative Energy ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

Energy Regime ◽

Atmospheric Carbon

Mitigation—preventative actions to reduce the human forcing of climate change with the goal of keeping climate change within a range to which humans can adapt—must be prompt, rigorous, and focused on eliminating emissions of carbon dioxide, beginning with rapid cessation of the use of coal. Carbon dioxide is by far the most threatening greenhouse gas because it remains in the atmosphere for millennia longer than any other major greenhouse gas, and the heat retained on the planet by atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to emerge from its transitional storage in the deep oceans for millennia after the atmospheric carbon finally dissipates. Sustainable development can be increased and ocean acidification can be stopped only if the dominant fossil fuel regime is promptly replaced by an affordable and accessible alternative energy regime. Poorer countries cannot be reasonably expected to cooperate with vigorous mitigation unless they are assisted with necessary adaptation.

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