A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

Abstract. The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM) driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the result across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 2000–2009 and 2040–2049 differs among the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe and decrease in northern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr−1 for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different response. Average model changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone exceed 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone exceed 2 ppb(v) in the same region. Over land areas in northern Europe ensemble mean changes in all these measures are mostly negative.

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A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-12-10423-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (21) ◽

pp. 10423-10440 ◽

Cited By ~ 84

Author(s):

J. Langner ◽

M. Engardt ◽

A. Baklanov ◽

J. H. Christensen ◽

M. Gauss ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

General Pattern ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Southern Europe ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 2000–2009 and 2040–2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr−1 for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region. In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily maximum show negative changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles indicating that climate impacts on O3 could be especially important in connection with extreme summer events.

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Climate change impacts on viticulture in Italy

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3112 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Massano ◽

Giorgia Fosser ◽

Marco Gaetani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Wine Industry ◽

Added Value ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Wine Production ◽

Bioclimatic Indices ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Impact Studies ◽

The Impact

In Italy the wine industry is an economic asset representing the 8% of the annual turnover of the Food & Beverage sector, according to Unicredit Industry Book 2019. Viticulture is strongly influenced by weather and climate, and winegrowers in Europe have already experienced the impact of climate change in terms of more frequent drought periods, warmer and longer growing seasons and an increased frequency of weather extremes. These changes impact on both yield production and wine quality.Our study aims to understand the impact of climate change on wine production, to estimate the risks associated with climate factors and to suggest appropriate adaptation measurement. The weather variables that most influence grape growth are: temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Starting for these variables we calculate a range of bioclimatic indices, selected following the International Organisation of Vine and Wine Guidelines (OIV), and correlate these with wine productivity data. According to the values of different indices it is possible to determine the more suitable areas for wine production, where we expect higher productivity, although the climate is not the only factor influencing yield.Using the convection-permitting models (CPMs &#8211; 2.2 horizontal resolution) we investigate how the bioclimatic indices changed in the last 20 years, and the impact of this change on grapes productivity. We look at possible climate trends and at the variation in the frequency distribution of extreme weather events. The CPMs are likely the best available option for this kind of impact studies since they allow a better representation of surface and orography field, explicitly resolve deep convection and show an improved representation of extremes events. In our study, we compare CPMs with regional climate models (RCMs &#8211; 12 km horizontal resolution) to evaluate the possible added value of high resolution models for impact studies. To compare models' output to observation the same analysis it carried out using E-OBS dataset.Through our impact study, we aim to provide a tool that winegrower and stakeholders involved in the wine business can use to make their activities more sustainable and more resilient to climate change.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Lakes in Northern Europe

The Impact of Climate Change on European Lakes ◽

10.1007/978-90-481-2945-4_18 ◽

2009 ◽

pp. 339-358 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Thorsten Blenckner ◽

Rita Adrian ◽

Lauri Arvola ◽

Marko Järvinen ◽

Peeter Nõges ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northern Europe ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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Evaluating the impact of climate change on the quality of ground water – case study of a coal enriched environment in Enugu Urban

WABER 2019 Conference Proceedings ◽

10.33796/waberconference2019.37 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ground Water ◽

Enriched Environment ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

Technical and technological aspects of development and testing of new machinery and technologies for agriculture of Ukraine ◽

10.31473/2305-5987-2020-2-27(41)-15 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

N. Maidanovych ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Soil Surface ◽

Winter Period ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Resource Saving ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Average Annual Temperature ◽

The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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