scholarly journals Retrieving hurricane wind speeds using cross-polarization C-band measurements

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.-J. van Zadelhoff ◽  
A. Stoffelen ◽  
P. W. Vachon ◽  
J. Wolfe ◽  
J. Horstmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Geophysical Model ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Geophysical Model Function ◽  
Sar Imagery ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. Hurricane-force wind speeds can have a large societal impact and in this paper microwave C-band cross-polarized (VH) signals are investigated to assess if they can be used to derive extreme wind-speed conditions. European satellite scatterometers have excellent hurricane penetration capability at C-band, but the vertically (VV) polarized signals become insensitive above 25 m s−1. VV and VH polarized backscatter signals from RADARSAT-2 SAR imagery acquired during severe hurricane events were compared to collocated SFMR wind measurements acquired by NOAA's hurricane-hunter aircraft. From this data set a geophysical model function (GMF) at strong-to-extreme/severe wind speeds (i.e., 20 m s−1 < U10 < 45 m s−1) is derived. Within this wind speed regime, cross-polarized data showed no distinguishable loss of sensitivity and as such, cross-polarized data can be considered a good candidate for the retrieval of strong-to-severe wind speeds from satellite instruments. The upper limit of 45 m s−1 is defined by the currently available collocated data. The validity of the derived relationship between wind speed and VH backscatter has been evaluated by comparing the cross-polarized signals to two independent wind-speed data sets (i.e., short-range ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecast winds and the NOAA best estimate 1-minute maximum sustained winds). Analysis of the three comparison data sets confirm that cross-polarized signals from satellites will enable the retrieval of strong-to-severe wind speeds where VV or horizontal (HH) polarization data has saturated. The VH backscatter increases exponentially with respect to wind speed (linear against VH [dB]) and a near-real-time assessment of maximum sustained wind speed is possible using VH measurements. VH measurements thus would be an extremely valuable complement on next-generation scatterometers for hurricane forecast warnings and hurricane model initialization.

scholarly journals Scatterometer hurricane wind speed retrievals using cross polarization

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 7945-7984 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.-J. van Zadelhoff ◽  
A. Stoffelen ◽  
P. W. Vachon ◽  
J. Wolfe ◽  
J. Horstmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Geophysical Model ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Geophysical Model Function ◽  
Sar Imagery ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. Hurricane-force wind speeds can have a large societal impact and in this paper microwave C-band cross-polarized (VH) signals are investigated to assess if they can be used to derive extreme wind speed conditions. European satellite scatterometers have excellent hurricane penetration capability at C-band, but the vertically (VV) polarized signals become insensitive above 25 m s−1. VV and VH polarized backscatter signals from RADARSAT-2 SAR imagery acquired during severe hurricane events were compared to collocated SFMR wind measurements acquired by NOAA's hurricane-hunter aircraft. From this data set a Geophysical Model Function (GMF) at strong-to-extreme/severe wind speeds (i.e. 20 m s−1 < U10 < 45 m s−1) is derived. Within this wind speed regime, cross-polarized data showed no distinguishable loss of sensitivity and as such, cross-polarized data can be considered a good candidate for the retrieval of strong-to-severe wind speeds from satellite instruments. The upper limit of 45 m s−1 is defined by the currently available collocated data. The validity of the derived relationship between wind speed and VH has been evaluated by comparing the cross polarized signals to two independent wind speed datasets, i.e. short-range ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecast winds and the NOAA best estimate one-minute maximum sustained winds. Analysis of the three comparison data sets confirm that cross-polarized signals from satellites will enable the retrieval of strong-to-severe wind speeds where VV or horizontal (HH) polarization data has saturated. The VH backscatter increases exponentially with respect to wind speed (linear against VH [dB]) and a near real time assessment of maximum sustained wind speed is possible using VH measurements. VH measurements thus would be an extremely valuable complement on next-generation scatterometers for Hurricane forecast warnings and hurricane model initialization.

scholarly journals Intercalibration of Backscatter Measurements among Ku-Band Scatterometers Onboard the Chinese HY-2 Satellite Constellation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 4783
Author(s):  
Zhixiong Wang ◽  
Juhong Zou ◽  
Youguang Zhang ◽  
Ad Stoffelen ◽  
Wenming Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Satellite Orbits ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Sea Surface Wind ◽  
Geophysical Model ◽  
Geophysical Model Function ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Ku Band

The Chinese HY-2D satellite was launched on 19 May 2021, carrying a Ku-band scatterometer. Together with the operating scatterometers onboard the HY-2B and HY-2C satellites, the HY-2 series scatterometer constellation was built, constituting different satellite orbits and hence opportunity for mutual intercomparison and intercalibration. To achieve intercalibration of backscatter measurements for these scatterometers, this study presents and performs three methods including: (1) direct comparison using collocated measurements, in which the nonlinear calibrations can also be derived; (2) intercalibration over the Amazon rainforest; (3) and the double-difference technique based on backscatter simulations over the global oceans, in which a geophysical model function and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds are needed. The results obtained using the three methods are comparable, i.e., the differences among them are within 0.1 dB. The intercalibration results are validated by comparing the HY-2 series scatterometer wind speeds with NWP model wind speeds. The curves of wind speed bias for the HY-2 series scatterometers are quite similar, particularly in wind speeds ranging from 4 to 20 m/s. Based on the well-intercalibrated backscatter measurements, consistent sea surface wind products from HY-2 series scatterometers can be produced, and greatly benefit data applications.

scholarly journals Statistical post-processing of wind speed forecasts using convolutional neural networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice Schmeits ◽  
Simon Veldkamp ◽  
Kirien Whan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Nwp Model

&lt;p&gt;Current statistical post-processing methods for providing a probabilistic forecast are not capable of using full spatial patterns from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output. Recent developments in deep learning (notably convolutional neural networks) have made it possible to use large gridded input data sets. This could potentially be useful in statistical post-processing, since it allows us to use more spatial information.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this study we consider wind speed forecasts for 48 hours ahead, as provided by KNMI's Harmonie-Arome model. Convolutional neural networks, fully connected neural networks and quantile regression forests are used to obtain probabilistic wind speed forecasts. Comparing these methods shows that convolutional neural networks are more skillful than the other methods, especially for medium to higher wind speeds.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Wind Speed Retrieval from Simulated RADARSAT Constellation Mission Compact Polarimetry SAR Data for Marine Application

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 1682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torsten Geldsetzer ◽  
Shahid K. Khurshid ◽  
Kerri Warner ◽  
Filipe Botelho ◽  
Dean Flett
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Low Noise ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Band Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Retrieval ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Geophysical Model ◽  
The Right ◽  
Quality Threshold

RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM) compact polarimetry (CP) data were simulated using 504 RADARSAT-2 quad-pol SAR images. These images were used to samples CP data in three RCM modes to build a data set with co-located ocean wind vector observations from in situ buoys on the West and East coasts of Canada. Wind speeds up to 18 m/s were included. CP and linear polarization parameters were related to the C-band model (CMOD) geophysical model functions CMOD-IFR2 and CMOD5n. These were evaluated for their wind retrieval potential in each RCM mode. The CP parameter Conformity was investigated to establish a data-quality threshold (>0.2), to ensure high-quality data for model validation. An accuracy analysis shows that the first Stokes vector (SV0) and the right-transmit vertical-receive backscatter (RV) parameters were as good as the VV backscatter with CMOD inversion. SV0 produced wind speed retrieval accuracies between 2.13 m/s and 2.22 m/s, depending on the RCM mode. The RCM Medium Resolution 50 m mode produced the best results. The Low Resolution 100 m and Low Noise modes provided similar results. The efficacy of SV0 and RV imparts confidence in the continuity of robust wind speed retrieval with RCM CP data. Three image-based case studies illustrate the potential for the application of CP parameters and RCM modes in operational wind retrieval systems. The results of this study provide guidance to direct research objectives once RCM is launched. The results also provide guidance for operational RCM data implementation in Canada’s National SAR winds system, which provides near-real-time wind speed estimates to operational marine forecasters and meteorologists within Environment and Climate Change Canada.

scholarly journals High-resolution numerical modeling of mesoscale island wakes and sensitivity to static topographic relief data

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 2645-2653 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. G. Nunalee ◽  
Á. Horváth ◽  
S. Basu
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Vortex Shedding ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Height Data

Abstract. Recent decades have witnessed a drastic increase in the fidelity of numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling. Currently, both research-grade and operational NWP models regularly perform simulations with horizontal grid spacings as fine as 1 km. This migration towards higher resolution potentially improves NWP model solutions by increasing the resolvability of mesoscale processes and reducing dependency on empirical physics parameterizations. However, at the same time, the accuracy of high-resolution simulations, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), is also sensitive to orographic forcing which can have significant variability on the same spatial scale as, or smaller than, NWP model grids. Despite this sensitivity, many high-resolution atmospheric simulations do not consider uncertainty with respect to selection of static terrain height data set. In this paper, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate realistic cases of lower tropospheric flow over and downstream of mountainous islands using the default global 30 s United States Geographic Survey terrain height data set (GTOPO30), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data set (GMTED2010) terrain height data sets. While the differences between the SRTM-based and GMTED2010-based simulations are extremely small, the GTOPO30-based simulations differ significantly. Our results demonstrate cases where the differences between the source terrain data sets are significant enough to produce entirely different orographic wake mechanics, such as vortex shedding vs. no vortex shedding. These results are also compared to MODIS visible satellite imagery and ASCAT near-surface wind retrievals. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of utilizing accurate static orographic boundary conditions when running high-resolution mesoscale models.

scholarly journals Comparison of Weibull and Gaussian Mixture Models for Wind Speed Data Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-16
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
Saif Ur Rehman ◽  
Imran Siddiqui ◽  
Shafiqur Rehman ◽  
Shamim Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Gaussian Mixture ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Weibull Function ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Power Densities

In order to have a reliable estimate of wind energy potential of a site, high frequency wind speed and direction data recorded for an extended period of time is required. Weibull distribution function is commonly used to approximate the recorded data distribution for estimation of wind energy. In the present study a comparison of Weibull function and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) as theoretical functions are used. The data set used for the study consists of hourly wind speeds and wind directions of 54 years duration recorded at Ijmuiden wind site located in north of Holland. The entire hourly data set of 54 years is reduced to 12 sets of hourly averaged data corresponding to 12 months. Authenticity of data is assessed by computing descriptive statistics on the entire data set without average and on monthly 12 data sets. Additionally, descriptive statistics show that wind speeds are positively skewed and most of the wind data points are observed to be blowing in south-west direction. Cumulative distribution and probability density function for all data sets are determined for both Weibull function and GMM. Wind power densities on monthly as well as for the entire set are determined from both models using probability density functions of Weibull function and GMM. In order to assess the goodness-of-fit of the fitted Weibull function and GMM, coefficient of determination (R2) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests are also determined. Although R2 test values for Weibull function are much closer to ‘1’ compared to its values for GMM. Nevertheless, overall performance of GMM is superior to Weibull function in terms of estimated wind power densities using GMM which are in good agreement with the power densities estimated using wind data for the same duration. It is reported that wind power densities for the entire wind data set are 307 W/m2 and 403.96 W/m2 estimated using GMM and Weibull function, respectively.

Intensity Models

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Thomas H. Jagger
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Maximum Wind Speed ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Dade County ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Wind Speed Distribution

Strong hurricanes, such as Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Katrina in 2005, cause catastrophic damage. It is important to have an estimate of when the next big one will occur. You also want to know what influences the strongest hurricanes and whether they are getting stronger as the earth warms. This chapter shows you how to model hurricane intensity. The data are basinwide lifetime highest intensities for individual tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and county-level hurricane wind intervals. We begin by considering trends using the method of quantile regression and then examine extreme-value models for estimating return periods. We also look at modeling cyclone winds when the values are given by category, and use Miami-Dade County as an example. Here you consider cyclones above tropical storm intensity (≥ 17 m s−1) during the period 1967–2010, inclusive. The period is long enough to see changes but not too long that it includes intensity estimates before satellite observations. We use “intensity” and “strength” synonymously to mean the fastest wind inside the cyclone. Consider the set of events defined by the location and wind speed at which a tropical cyclone first reaches its lifetime maximum intensity (see Chapter 5). The data are in the file LMI.txt. Import and list the values in 10 columns of the first 6 rows of the data frame by typing . . . > LMI.df = read.table("LMI.txt", header=TRUE) > round(head(LMI.df)[c(1, 5:9, 12, 16)], 1). . . The data set is described in Chapter 6. Here your interest is the smoothed intensity estimate at the time of lifetime maximum (WmaxS). First, convert the wind speeds from the operational units of knots to the SI units of meter per second. . . . > LMI.df$WmaxS = LMI.df$WmaxS * .5144 . . . Next, determine the quartiles (0.25 and 0.75 quantiles) of the wind speed distribution. The quartiles divide the cumulative distribution function (CDF) into three equal-sized subsets. . . . > quantile(LMI.df$WmaxS, c(.25, .75)) 25% 75% 25.5 46.0 . . . You find that 25 percent of the cyclones have a lifetime maximum wind speed less than 26 m s−1 and 75 percent have a maximum wind speed less than 46ms−1, so that 50 percent of all cyclones have a maximum wind speed between 26 and 46 m s−1 (interquartile range–IQR).

scholarly journals Compact Polarimetry Synthetic Aperture Radar Ocean Wind Retrieval: Model Development and Validation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Zhang ◽  
Yiru Lu ◽  
William Perrie ◽  
Guosheng Zhang ◽  
Alexis Mouche
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Incidence Angle ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Geophysical Model ◽  
Mean Square Errors

AbstractWe have developed C-band compact polarimetry geophysical model functions for RADARSAT Constellation Mission ocean surface wind speed retrieval. A total of 1594 RADARSAT-2 images acquired in quad-polarization SAR imaging mode were collocated with in situ buoy observations. This data set is first used to simulate compact polarimetric data and to examine their dependencies on radar incidence angle and wind vectors. We find that RR-pol radar backscatters are less sensitive to incidence angles and wind directions but are more dependent on wind speeds, compared to RH-, RV-, and RL-pol. Subsequently, the matchup data pairs are used to derive the coefficients of the transfer functions for the proposed compact polarimetric geophysical model functions, and to validate the associated wind speed retrieval accuracy. Statistical comparisons show that the retrieved wind speeds from CMODRH, CMODRV, CMODRL, CMODRR are in good agreement with buoy measurements, with root mean square errors of 1.38, 1.51, 1.47, 1.25 m/s, respectively. The results suggest that compact polarimetry is a good alternative to linear polarization for wind speed retrieval. CMODRR is more appropriate to retrieve high wind speeds than CMODRH, CMODRV or CMODRL.

A Scatterometer Geophysical Model Function for Climate-Quality Winds: QuikSCAT Ku-2011

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 1829-1846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucrezia Ricciardulli ◽  
Frank J. Wentz
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Model Function ◽  
Multiple Sensors ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Geophysical Model ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Geophysical Model Function ◽  
Climate Data Record

AbstractSpace-based observations of ocean surface winds have been available for more than 25 years. To combine the observations from multiple sensors into one record with the accuracy required for climate studies requires a consistent methodology and calibration standard for the various instruments. This study describes a new geophysical model function (GMF) specifically developed for preparing the QuikSCAT winds to serve as a backbone of an ocean vector wind climate data record. This paper describes the methodology used and presents the quality of the reprocessed winds. The new Ku-2011 model function was developed using WindSat winds as a calibration truth. An extensive validation of the Ku-2011 winds was performed that focused on 1) proving the consistency of satellite winds from different sensors at all wind speed regimes; 2) exploring and understanding possible sources of bias in the QuikSCAT retrievals; 3) validating QuikSCAT wind speeds versus in situ observations, and comparing observed wind directions versus those from numerical models; 4) comparing satellite observations of high wind speeds with measurements obtained from aircraft flying into storms; 5) analyzing case studies of satellite-based observations of winds in tropical storms; and 6) illustrating how rain impacts QuikSCAT wind speed retrievals. The results show that the reprocessed QuikSCAT data are greatly improved in both speed and direction at high winds. Finally, there is a discussion on how these QuikSCAT results fit into a long-term effort toward creating a climate data record of ocean vector winds.

24 Hour Step Ahead Wind Speed / Wind Power Prediction Using a Novel Kalman Filter Bank Prediction Estimator

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conor Lynch ◽  
Michael J. O’Mahony ◽  
Richard A. Guinee
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Velocity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Power Prediction ◽  
Nwp Model

This paper presents a new approach allowing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) grid model forecasting to be applied to a desired “sub-grid” location. It permits observations from a NWP model using a novel bank of 24 Kalman Filters (KFs) operating simultaneously to accurately predict the wind speed (Zt) 24 hours ahead for a campus based wind turbine at Cork Institute of Technology (CIT) at 20m above sea level (asl) at sub grid location. The NWP model outputs wind speed predictions (mt) for Cork Airport at 152m asl (2.5km distant from CIT) at grid level. The Kalman Filter (KF), acting as a post processing tool with a moving time averaging window, derives a 24 hour ahead predicted wind speed schedule for CIT by applying a wind speed bias model polynomial to map and filter the wind speed bias offset between the two locations. To ensure a robust model, with good modelling and error noise disturbance rejection capabilities inclusive of model offsets [1], the accuracy of the model has been investigated using a particularly turbulent wind data set for December 2013 [2]. It is shown that a 4th order polynomial adaptive wind speed model bias remover is the optimum choice to employ in conjunction with the KF which uses a 3 point a priori moving window averager to adequately eliminate systematic error. The application of a KF to wind speed prediction is implemented in MATLAB software and results are provided in this paper to demonstrate the accuracy and fidelity of the procedure. Hypothesis testing along with statistical analysis has returned wind velocity prediction estimates that demonstrate the accuracy of the KF estimator. This also provides confidence enhancement of the polynomial model choice as a suitable wind velocity bias eliminator. The accuracy of the hourly wind velocity estimate are of strategic importance in wind power prediction where installed wind turbine scheduling is an issue for cost effective electrical network operation with a consequent beneficial economic return on wind generator capital investment.

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