High-resolution forest carbon flux mapping and monitoring in the Pacific Northwest with time since disturbance and disturbance legacies inferred from remote sensing and inventory data

Assessment of forest carbon storage and uptake is central to understanding the role forests play in the global carbon cycle and policy-making aimed at mitigating climate change. Current U.S. carbon stocks and fluxes are monitored and reported at fine-scale regionally, or coarse-scale nationally. We proposed a new methodology of quantifying carbon uptake and release across forested landscapes in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) at a fine scale (30 m) by combining remote-sensing based disturbance year, disturbance type, and aboveground biomass with forest inventory data in a carbon modelling framework. Time since disturbance is a key intermediate determinant that aided the assessment of disturbance-driven carbon emissions and removals legacies. When a recent disturbance was detected, time since disturbance can be directly determined by remote sensing-derived disturbance products; and if not, time since last stand-clearing was inferred from remote sensing-derived 30 m biomass map and field inventory-derived species-specific biomass regrowth curves. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was further mapped based on carbon stock and flux trajectories that described how NEP changes with time following harvest, fire, or bark beetle disturbances of varying severity. Uncertainties from biomass map and forest inventory data were propagated by probabilistic sampling to provide a probabilistic, statistical distribution of stand age and NEP for each forest pixel. We mapped mean, standard deviation and statistical distribution of stand age and NEP at 30 m in the PNW region. Our map indicated a net ecosystem productivity of 5.2 Tg C y−1 for forestlands circa 2010 in the study area, with net uptake in relatively mature (> 24 year old) forests (13.6 Tg C y−1) overwhelming net negative NEP from tracts that have seen recent harvest (−6.4 Tg C y−1), fires (−0.5 Tg C y−1), and bark beetle outbreaks (−1.4 Tg C y−1). The approach will be applied to forestlands in other regions of the conterminous U.S. to advance a more comprehensive monitoring, mapping and reporting the carbon consequences of forest change across the U.S.