Differential long-term effects of climate change and management on stocks and distribution of soil organic carbon in productive grasslands

Abstract. We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system where fertilization is omitted and harvests are fewer. The Oensingen Grassland Model was explicitly developed for this study. It was calibrated using measurements taken in a recently established permanent sward in Central Switzerland, and run to simulate SOC dynamics over 2001–2100 under three climate change scenarios assuming different elements of IPCC A2 emission scenarios. We found that: (1) management intensity dominates SOC until approximately 20 yr after grassland establishment. Differences in SOC between climate scenarios become significant after 20 yr and climate effects dominate SOC dynamics from approximately 50 yr after establishment, (2) carbon supplied through manure contributes about 60% to measured organic C increase in fertilized grassland. (3) Soil C accumulates particularly in the top 10 cm soil until 5 yr after establishment. In the long-term, C accumulation takes place in the top 15 cm of the soil profile, while C content decreases below this depth. The transitional depth between gains and losses of C mainly depends on the vertical distribution of root senescence and root biomass. We discuss the importance of previous land use on carbon sequestration potentials that are much lower at the Oensingen site under ley-arable rotation and with much higher SOC stocks than most soils under arable crops. We further discuss the importance of biomass senescence rates, because C balance estimations indicate that these may differ considerably between the two management systems.

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Differential long-term effects of climate change and management on stocks and distribution of soil organic carbon in productive grasslands

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-9-1997-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 1997-2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

A. M. G. De Bruijn ◽

P. Calanca ◽

C. Ammann ◽

J. Fuhrer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Organic C ◽

Soil C ◽

The Impact ◽

Soc Stocks

Abstract. We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system without fertilization and fewer harvests. Simulations were conducted with a dedicated newly developed model, the Oensingen Grassland Model. It was calibrated using measurements taken in a recently established permanent sward in Central Switzerland, and run to simulate SOC dynamics over 2001–2100 under various climate change scenarios assuming different elements of IPCC A2 emission scenarios. We found that: (1) management intensity dominates SOC until approximately 20 years after grassland establishment. Differences in SOC between climate scenarios become significant after 20 years and climate effects dominate SOC dynamics from approximately 50 years after establishment. (2) Carbon supplied through manure contributes about 60 % to measured organic C increase in fertilized grassland. (3) Soil C accumulates particularly in the top 10 cm of the soil until 5 years after establishment. In the long-term, C accumulation takes place in the top 15 cm of the soil profile, while C content decreases below this depth. The transitional depth between gains and losses of C mainly depends on the vertical distribution of root senescence and root biomass. We discuss the importance of previous land use on carbon sequestration potentials that are much lower at the Oensingen site under ley-arable rotation with much higher SOC stocks than most soils under arable crops. We further discuss the importance of biomass senescence rates, because C balance estimations indicate that these may differ considerably between the two management systems.

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Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1037-1055

Author(s):

Tobias Herzfeld ◽

Jens Heinke ◽

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Christoph Müller

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Management Practices ◽

Residue Management ◽

Biophysical Model ◽

Management Systems ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Warm Temperate ◽

Soc Stocks

Abstract. Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, which in particular is needed to achieve the targets proposed in the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in atmospheric temperature to well below 2 ∘C. We analyze the historical evolution and future development of cropland SOC using the global process-based biophysical model LPJmL, which was recently extended by a detailed representation of tillage practices and residue management (version 5.0-tillage2). We find that model results for historical global estimates for SOC stocks are at the upper end of available literature, with ∼2650 Pg C of SOC stored globally in the year 2018, ∼170 Pg C of which is stored in cropland soils. In future projections, assuming no further changes in current cropland patterns and under four different management assumptions with two different climate forcings, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, results suggest that agricultural SOC stocks decline in all scenarios, as the decomposition of SOC outweighs the increase in carbon inputs into the soil from altered management practices. Different climate change scenarios, as well as assumptions on tillage management, play a minor role in explaining differences in SOC stocks. The choice of tillage practice explains between 0.2 % and 1.3 % of total cropland SOC stock change in the year 2100. Future dynamics in cropland SOC are most strongly controlled by residue management: whether residues are left on the field or harvested. We find that on current cropland, global cropland SOC stocks decline until the end of the century by only 1.0 % to 1.4 % if residue retention management systems are generally applied and by 26.7 % to 27.3 % in the case of residue harvest. For different climatic regions, increases in cropland SOC can only be found for tropical dry, warm temperate moist, and warm temperate dry regions in management systems that retain residues.

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Projected soil organic carbon stocks in German croplands under different climate change scenarios

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8004 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Catharina Riggers ◽

Christopher Poeplau ◽

Axel Don ◽

Cathleen Frühauf ◽

René Dechow

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

C Input ◽

Soc Stocks

Mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) is driven by temperature and soil moisture. Thus, climate change might affect future SOC stocks with implications for greenhouse gas fluxes from soils and soil fertility of arable land. We used a model ensemble of different SOC models and climate projections to project SOC stocks in German croplands up to 2099 under different climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Current SOC stocks and management data were derived from the German Agricultural Soil Inventory. We estimated the increase in carbon (C) input required to preserve or increase recent SOC stocks. The model ensemble projected declining SOC stocks in German croplands under current management and yield levels. This was true for a scenario with no future climate change (-0.065 Mg ha-1 a-1) as well as for the climate change scenarios (-0.070 Mg ha-1 a-1 to -0.120 Mg ha-1 a-1). Thereby, preserving current SOC stocks would require an increase in current C input to the soil of between 51 % (+1.3 Mg ha-1) and 93 % (+2.3 Mg ha-1). We further estimated that a C input increase of between 221 % and 283 % would be required to increase SOC stocks by 34.4 % in 2099 (4 &#8240; a-1). The results of this study indicate that increasing SOC stocks under climate change by a noticeable amount will be challenging since SOC losses need to be overcompensated.

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Potential and constraints for applying the “4 per 1000 Initiative” in the Caribbean: the case of Guadeloupe

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-020-01740-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Pierre Chopin ◽

Jorge Sierra

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Cropping Systems ◽

Agricultural Area ◽

Local Market ◽

Sequestration Potential ◽

The Caribbean ◽

The Impact ◽

Soc Stocks

AbstractThis paper assesses the feasibility of the 4 per 1000 initiative for agricultural soils in the tropics more specifically in Guadeloupe, as a representative case study of the Caribbean and other tropical regions. We used a locally adapted and calibrated model describing soil organic carbon dynamics under the impact of climate change and a broad range of scenarios combining increased use of organic amendments, reduced soil tillage, and increased land area for the local market. We found that, in its current state, only 26% of agricultural area could achieve a 4‰ year−1 increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the coming 30 years, due mainly to perennial cropping systems (sugarcane, banana, orchards) occupying soils with the lowest SOC stocks. Implementing reduced tillage with increased use of locally produced composts would increase the agricultural area reaching the 4 per 1000 target to 31%. However, at territory scale, all scenarios tested showed an annual decrease in SOC stocks varying from − 0.1 to − 3.2‰. The limited area on which the 4 per 1000 target is feasible and generalized SOC losses were mainly linked to the current high SOC stocks in volcanic and calcareous soils on the island and lack of practices capable of further increasing C inputs in current cropping systems. We concluded that C sequestration potential in the Caribbean is rather limited and that increasing SOC stocks, even lower than 4 per 1000, should be the primary target in adaptation to climate change, by increasing the resilience of cropping systems based mainly on SOC-poor soils.

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Increasing soil organic carbon stocks in croplands: a multi-modelling analysis evaluating the carbon inputs required to maintain and increase soil organic carbon stocks in Europe

10.5194/ismc2021-18 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elisa Bruni

Keyword(s):

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Experimental Conditions ◽

Significant Interaction Effect ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks ◽

The Impact ◽

Soc Stocks

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon on land and have the ability to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks also improves soil fertility, water holding capacity and prevents erosion. Maintaining SOC stocks is particularly relevant in agricultural soils, where they have been depleted through historical land use. Simulation models representing the dynamics of carbon in the soil are used for predicting the impact of future climate change on SOC dynamics. It is necessary to reduce the uncertainties related to SOC predictions and increase confidence on long-term model simulations. Multi-modeling simulations allow predicting the evolution of SOC stocks, while estimating the uncertainty related to different modeling approaches. In this study, we used a multi-modeling ensemble (ICBM, AMG, RothC and Century) to estimate the amount of carbon inputs required to maintain and increase SOC stocks in 17 agricultural experiments around Europe. Models were run once without calibration and once fitting SOC stocks to long-term observations though parameters&#8217; optimization. Outputs were significantly different among the models and, although no effect of the optimization was found, we observed a significant interaction effect between models and parameters&#8217; optimization. We found that maintaining and increasing SOC stocks is realistic for some experimental conditions, but might be hard to implement at a larger scale.

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Additional carbon inputs to reach a 4 per 1000 objective in Europe: feasibility and projected impacts of climate change based on Century simulations of long-term arable experiments

10.5194/bg-2020-489 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elisa Bruni ◽

Bertrand Guenet ◽

Yuanyuan Huang ◽

Hugues Clivot ◽

Iñigo Virto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

Agricultural Practices ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks ◽

Annual Carbon ◽

Soc Stocks

Abstract. The 4 per 1000 initiative aims to promote better agricultural practices to maintain and increase soil organic carbon stocks for soil fertility, food security and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The most straightforward way to enhance soil organic carbon stocks is to increase carbon inputs to the soil. In this study, we assessed the amount of organic carbon inputs that are necessary to reach a target of soil organic carbon stocks increase by 4 ‰ per year on average, for 30 years. We used the Century model to simulate soil organic carbon stocks in 14 European long-term agricultural experiments and assessed the required level of carbon inputs increase to reach the 4 per 1000 target. Initial simulated stocks were computed analytically assuming steady state. We compared modelled carbon inputs to different treatments of additional carbon used on the experimental sites (exogenous organic matter addition and one treatment with different crop rotations). We then analyzed how this would change under future scenarios of temperature increase. The model was calibrated to fit the control plot, i.e. conventional management without additional carbon inputs, and was able to reproduce the SOC stocks dynamics. We found that, on average among the selected experimental sites, annual carbon inputs will have to increase by 43.15 ± 5.05 %, which is 0.66 ± 0.23 MgC ha−1 per year (mean ± standard error), with respect to the control situation. The simulated amount of carbon inputs required to reach the 4 ‰ SOC increase was lower or similar to the amount of carbon inputs actually used in the majority of the additional carbon input treatments of the long-term experiments. However, Century might be overestimating the effect of additional C inputs on the variation of SOC stocks in some sites, since we found that treatments with additional carbon inputs were increasing by 0.25 % on average among the experimental sites. We showed that the modeled carbon inputs required to reach the target depended linearly on the initial SOC stocks. We estimated that annual carbon inputs would have to increase further due to temperature increase effect on decomposition rates, that is 54 % for a 1 °C warming and 120 % for a 5 °C warming.

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How much carbon input is required to preserve or increase projected soil organic carbon stocks in German croplands under climate change?

Plant and Soil ◽

10.1007/s11104-020-04806-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Catharina Riggers ◽

Christopher Poeplau ◽

Axel Don ◽

Cathleen Frühauf ◽

René Dechow

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks ◽

Soc Stock ◽

Soc Stocks ◽

Negative Emission Technology

Abstract Aims Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is discussed as negative emission technology with the potential to remove relevant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. At the same time, climate change-driven losses of SOC to the atmosphere might impede such goals. Methods In this study, we used an ensemble of different SOC models and climate projections to project SOC stocks in German croplands up to 2099 under different climate change scenarios. We then estimated the required increase in organic carbon (OC) input to preserve or increase SOC stocks. Results Projected SOC stocks of German croplands are estimated to decline under current OC input levels and management, both with and without climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, we estimated that the OC input to the soil in 2099 needs to be between 51% (+ 1.3 Mg ha− 1) and 93% (+ 2.3 Mg ha− 1) higher than today to preserve current SOC stock levels. A SOC stock increase of 34.4% (4‰ a− 1) would even require an OC input increase of between 221% (+ 5.5 Mg ha− 1) and 283% (+ 7.1 Mg ha− 1). Conclusions Our study highlights that under climate change increasing SOC stocks is considerable challenging since projected SOC losses have to be compensated first before SOC built up is possible. This would require unrealistically high OC input increases with drastic changes in agricultural management.

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Modelling long-term soil organic carbon dynamics under the impact of land cover change and soil redistribution

CATENA ◽

10.1016/j.catena.2016.12.008 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 151 ◽

pp. 63-73 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Samuel Bouchoms ◽

Zhengang Wang ◽

Veerle Vanacker ◽

Sebastian Doetterl ◽

Kristof Van Oost

Keyword(s):

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Carbon Dynamics ◽

Soil Redistribution ◽

The Impact ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

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Influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon: A compendium and assessment of Canadian studies

Canadian Journal of Soil Science ◽

10.4141/s03-009 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 83 (4) ◽

pp. 363-380 ◽

Cited By ~ 194

Author(s):

A. J. VandenBygaart ◽

E. G. Gregorich ◽

D. A. Angers

Keyword(s):

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Management Practices ◽

Agricultural Management ◽

Organic Fertilizers ◽

Published Data ◽

Native Land ◽

Soc Stocks ◽

Long Term Studies

To fulfill commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada is required to provide verifiable estimates and uncertainties for soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, and for changes in those stocks over time. Estimates and uncertainties for agricultural soils can be derived from long-term studies that have measured differences in SOC between different management practices. We compiled published data from long-term studies in Canada to assess the effect of agricultural management on SOC. A total of 62 studies were compiled, in which the difference in SOC was determined for conversion from native land to cropland, and for different tillage, crop rotation and fertilizer management practices. There was a loss of 24 ± 6% of the SOC after native land was converted to agricultural land. No-till (NT) increased the storage of SOC in western Canada by 2.9 ± 1.3 Mg ha-1; however, in eastern Canada conversion to NT did not increase SOC. In general, the potential to store SOC when NT was adopted decreased with increasing background levels of SOC. Using no-tillage, reducing summer fallow, including hay in rotation with wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), plowing green manures into the soil, and applying N and organic fertilizers were the practices that tended to show the most consistent in creases in SOC storage. By relating treatment SOC levels to those in the control treatments, SOC stock change factors and their levels of uncertainty were derived for use in empirical models, such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Guidelines model for C stock changes. However, we must be careful when attempting to extrapolate research plot data to farmers’ fields since the history of soil and crop management has a significant influence on existing and future SOC stocks. Key words: C sequestration, tillage, crop rotations, fertilizer, cropping intensity, Canada

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