scholarly journals Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1489-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Korhonen ◽  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
H. Seppä ◽  
H. Järvinen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial–interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. In this study we introduce a way to use generalized additive models (GAMs) for downscaling the large-scale output of an EMIC in very different climatological conditions ranging from glacial periods to current relatively warm climates. GAMs are regression models in which a combination of explanatory variables is related to the response through a sum of spline functions. We calibrated the GAMs using observations of the recent past climate and the results of short time-slice simulations of glacial climate performed by the relatively high-resolution general circulation model CCSM (Community Climate System Model) and the regional climate model RCA3 (Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model). As explanatory variables we used the output of a simulation by the CLIMBER-2 (CLIMate and BiosphERe model 2) EMIC of the last glacial cycle, coupled with the SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) ice sheet model, i.e. the large-scale temperature and precipitation data of CLIMBER-2, and the elevation, distance to ice sheet, slope direction and slope angle from SICOPOLIS. The fitted GAMs were able to explain more than 96% of the temperature response with a correlation of >0.98 and more than 59% of the precipitation response with a correlation of >0.72. The first comparison with two pollen-based reconstructions of temperature for Northern Europe showed that CLIMBER-2 data downscaled by GAMs corresponded better with the reconstructions than did the bilinearly interpolated CLIMBER-2 surface temperature.

scholarly journals Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 3371-3398 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Korhonen ◽  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
H. Seppä ◽  
H. Järvinen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial-interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. We used Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) for downscaling the large-scale output of an EMIC. GAMs are regression models in which a combination of explanatory variables are related to the response through a sum of spline functions. We calibrated the GAMs using observations of the recent past climate and the results of short time-slice simulations of glacial climate performed by the relatively high-resolution general circulation model CCSM and the regional climate model RCA3. As explanatory variables we used the output of a simulation by CLIMBER-2 EMIC of the last glacial cycle, coupled with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model, i.e., the large-scale temperature and precipitation data of CLIMBER-2, and the elevation, distance to ice sheet, slope direction and slope angle from SICOPOLIS. The fitted GAMs were able to explain more than 96% of the temperature response with a correlation of > 0.98 and more than 59% of the precipitation response with a correlation of >0.72. The first comparison with two pollen-based reconstructions of temperature for Northern Europe showed that CLIMBER-2 data downscaled by GAMs corresponded better with the reconstructions than did the bi-linearly interpolated CLIMBER-2 surface temperature.

scholarly journals Investigating the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bonelli ◽  
S. Charbit ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
M.-N. Woillez ◽  
G. Ramstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. A 2.5-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, fully coupled with the GREMLINS 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle and to investigate the ice sheets responses to both insolation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. This model reproduces the main phases of advance and retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle, although the amplitude of these variations is less pronounced than those based on sea level reconstructions. At the last glacial maximum, the simulated ice volume is 52.5×1015 m3 and the spatial distribution of both the American and Eurasian ice complexes is in reasonable agreement with observations, with the exception of the marine parts of these former ice sheets. A set of sensitivity studies has also been performed to assess the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to both insolation and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the decrease of summer insolation is the main factor responsible for the early build up of the North American ice sheet around 120 kyr BP, in agreement with benthic foraminifera δ18O signals. In contrast, low insolation and low atmospheric CO2 concentration are both necessary to trigger a long-lasting glaciation over Eurasia.

scholarly journals A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tarasov ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
The Last Glacial

Significant improvements to the representation of climate forcing and mass-balance response in a coupled two-dimensional global energy balance climate model (EBM) and vertically integrated ice-sheet model (ISM) have led to the prediction of an ice-volume chronology for the most recent ice-age cycle of the Northern Hemisphere that is close to that inferred from the geological record. Most significant is that full glacial termination is delivered by the model without the need for new physical ingredients. In addition, a relatively close match is achieved between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model ice topography and that of the recently-described ICE-4G reconstruction. These results suggest that large-scale climate system reorganization is not required to explain the main variations of the North American (NA) ice sheets over the last glacial cycle. Lack of sea-ice and marine-ice dynamics in the model leaves the situation over the Eurasian (EA) sector much more uncertain.The incorporation of a gravitationally self-consistent description of the glacial isostatic adjustment process demonstrates that the NA and EA bedrock responses can be adequately represented by simpler damped-relaxation models with characteristic time-scales of 3–5ka and 5 ka, respectively. These relaxation times agree with those independently inferred on the basis of postglacial relative sea-level histories.

scholarly journals A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tarasov ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
The Last Glacial

Significant improvements to the representation of climate forcing and mass-balance response in a coupled two-dimensional global energy balance climate model (EBM) and vertically integrated ice-sheet model (ISM) have led to the prediction of an ice-volume chronology for the most recent ice-age cycle of the Northern Hemisphere that is close to that inferred from the geological record. Most significant is that full glacial termination is delivered by the model without the need for new physical ingredients. In addition, a relatively close match is achieved between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model ice topography and that of the recently-described ICE-4G reconstruction. These results suggest that large-scale climate system reorganization is not required to explain the main variations of the North American (NA) ice sheets over the last glacial cycle. Lack of sea-ice and marine-ice dynamics in the model leaves the situation over the Eurasian (EA) sector much more uncertain.The incorporation of a gravitationally self-consistent description of the glacial isostatic adjustment process demonstrates that the NA and EA bedrock responses can be adequately represented by simpler damped-relaxation models with characteristic time-scales of 3–5ka and 5 ka, respectively. These relaxation times agree with those independently inferred on the basis of postglacial relative sea-level histories.

scholarly journals Evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in response to changing ice sheets over the last glacial cycle

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1453-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Löfverström ◽  
R. Caballero ◽  
J. Nilsson ◽  
J. Kleman
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Laurentide Ice Sheet ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. We present modelling results of the atmospheric circulation at the cold periods of marine isotope stage 5b (MIS 5b), MIS 4 and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), as well as the interglacial. The palaeosimulations are forced by ice-sheet reconstructions consistent with geological evidence and by appropriate insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. The results suggest that the large-scale atmospheric winter circulation remained largely similar to the interglacial for a significant part of the glacial cycle. The proposed explanation is that the ice sheets were located in areas where their interaction with the mean flow is limited. However, the LGM Laurentide Ice Sheet induces a much larger planetary wave that leads to a zonalisation of the Atlantic jet. In summer, the ice-sheet topography dynamically induces warm temperatures in Alaska and central Asia that inhibits the expansion of the ice sheets into these regions. The warm temperatures may also serve as an explanation for westward propagation of the Eurasian Ice Sheet from MIS 4 to the LGM.

Impacts of the PMIP4 ice-sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Izumi ◽  
Paul Paul Valdes ◽  
Ruza Ivanovic ◽  
Lauren Gregoire
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Last Glacial

<p>The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21,000 yr before present) is a target period of the paleoclimate simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (CMIP6-PMIP4) because of abundant paleoenvironmental data in continental, ice, and marine indicators. The LGM was a period of low atmospheric trace gases when large ice sheets covered over North America and Scandinavia. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the Northern Hemisphere climate differed from today.</p><p>In this study, we used the coupled atmosphere and ocean model HadCM3B-M1 in order to investigate the impacts of the main LGM boundary condition changes, in particular, the ICE-6G_C, GLAC-1D, and PMIP3 ice-sheet reconstructions following the PMIP4 protocol, on the mean state of the climate over the Northern Hemisphere. First, we check the surface albedo forcing and feedback with a simplified partial derivative method and assess the surface temperature changes and their composition using a simple surface energy balance equation. Then, we investigate how patterns of stationary waves, westerly jet precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere change in response to the LGM ice-sheet configuration. Finally, we implement a paleo data-model comparison for validation of the large-scale climate changes over the Northern Hemisphere at the LGM. The wintertime stationary waves have the largest amplitude and different responses among the experiments, while stationary waves in summer are weak and similar responses. The LGM simulation with the ICE-6G_C better captures features of the LGM climate, but compared to the reconstructions, the climate model tends to overestimate cooling in summer and underestimate cooling in winter and simulate wetter conditions over the Northern Hemisphere.  </p>

Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled, sectorially averaged climate—ice sheet model: 1. The climate model

1991 ◽  
Vol 96 (D7) ◽  
pp. 13139 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Gallée ◽  
J. P. van Ypersele ◽  
Th. Fichefet ◽  
Ch. Tricot ◽  
A. Berger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial

scholarly journals Atmospheric gas records from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, reveal ancient ice with ages spanning the entire last glacial cycle

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 943-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Baggenstos ◽  
Thomas K. Bauska ◽  
Jeffrey P. Severinghaus ◽  
James E. Lee ◽  
Hinrich Schaefer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
Age Model ◽  
Taylor Glacier ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Old ice for paleo-environmental studies, traditionally accessed through deep core drilling on domes and ridges on the large ice sheets, can also be retrieved at the surface from ice sheet margins and blue ice areas. The practically unlimited amount of ice available at these sites satisfies a need in the community for studies of trace components requiring large sample volumes. For margin sites to be useful as ancient ice archives, the ice stratigraphy needs to be understood and age models need to be established. We present measurements of trapped gases in ice from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, to date the ice and assess the completeness of the stratigraphic section. Using δ18O of O2 and methane concentrations, we unambiguously identify ice from the last glacial cycle, covering every climate interval from the early Holocene to the penultimate interglacial. A high-resolution transect reveals the last deglaciation and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in detail. We observe large-scale deformation in the form of folding, but individual stratigraphic layers do not appear to have undergone irregular thinning. Rather, it appears that the entire LGM–deglaciation sequence has been transported from the interior of the ice sheet to the surface of Taylor Glacier relatively undisturbed. We present an age model that builds the foundation for gas studies on Taylor Glacier. A comparison with the Taylor Dome ice core confirms that the section we studied on Taylor Glacier is better suited for paleo-climate reconstructions of the LGM due to higher accumulation rates.

scholarly journals Investigating the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1013-1053 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bonelli ◽  
S. Charbit ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
M.-N. Woillez ◽  
G. Ramstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. A 2.5-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity fully coupled with a 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle and to investigate the ice sheets responses to both insolation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. This model reproduces the main phases of advance and retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle, although the amplitude of these variations is less pronounced than those based on sea level reconstructions. At the last glacial maximum, the simulated ice volume is 52.5×1015 m3 and the spatial distribution of both the American and Eurasian ice complexes is in reasonable agreement with observations, with the exception of the marine parts of these former ice sheets. A set of sensitivity studies has also been performed to assess the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to both insolation and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the decrease of summer insolation is the main factor responsible for the early build up of the North American ice sheet around 120 kyr BP, in agreement with benthic foraminifera δ18O signals. In contrast, low insolation and low atmospheric CO2 concentration are both necessary to trigger a long-lasting glaciation over Eurasia.

scholarly journals Atmospheric gas records from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, reveal ancient ice with ages spanning the entire last glacial cycle

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Baggenstos ◽  
Thomas K. Bauska ◽  
Jeffrey P. Severinghaus ◽  
James E. Lee ◽  
Hinrich Schaefer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
Age Model ◽  
Taylor Glacier ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Old ice for paleo-environmental studies, traditionally accessed through deep core drilling on domes and ridges on the large ice sheets, can also be retrieved at the surface from ice sheet margins and blue ice areas. The practically unlimited amount of ice available at these sites satisfies a need in the community for studies of trace components requiring large sample volumes. For margin sites to be useful as ancient ice archives, the ice stratigraphy needs to be understood and age models need to be established. We present measurements of trapped gases in ice from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, to date the ice and assess the completeness of the stratigraphic section. Using δ18O of O2 and methane concentrations, we unambiguously identify ice from the last glacial cycle, covering every climate interval from the early Holocene to the penultimate interglacial. A high-resolution transect reveals the last deglaciation and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in detail. We observe large-scale deformation in the form of folding, but individual stratigraphic layers do not appear to have undergone irregular thinning. Rather, it appears that the entire LGM-deglaciation sequence has been transported from the interior of the ice sheet to the surface of Taylor Glacier relatively undisturbed. We present an age model that builds the foundation for gas studies on Taylor Glacier. A comparison with the Taylor Dome ice core confirms that the section we studied on Taylor Glacier is better suited for paleo-climate reconstructions of the LGM due to higher accumulation rates.

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