Wet/dry status change in global closed basins between the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum and its implication for future projection
Abstract. Closed basins, mainly located in subtropic and temperate drylands, have experienced alarming decline in water storage in recent years. However, a long-term assessment of hydroclimate changes in the region remains unquantified at a global scale. By intergrating the lake records, PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations and modern observations, we assess the wet/dry status during the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, pre-industrial, 20th and 21th century periods in global closed basins. Results show comparable wetting at a global scale during the mid-Holocene and modern warming periods with regional mechanism differences, attributed to the boreal winter and summer precipitation increasing, respectively. The long-term moisture change pattern is mainly controlled by the millennial-scale insolation variation, which lead to the poleward moving of westerlies and strengthening of monsoons during the interglacial period. However, modern moisture change trends are significantly associated with ENSO in most of closed basins, indicating strong connection with ocean oscillation. Our research suggests that moisture changes in global closed basins are more resilient than previous thought to warm periods.