Evaluation of extreme precipitation over the Nordic region using a convection-permitting regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Toivonen ◽  
Danijel Belušić ◽  
Emma Dybro Thomassen ◽  
Peter Berg ◽  
Ole Bøssing Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Mesh Resolution ◽  
Grid Mesh

<p>Extreme precipitation events have a major impact upon our society. Although many studies have indicated that it is likely that the frequency of such events will increase in a warmer climate, little has been done to assess changes in extreme precipitation at a sub-daily scale. Recently, there is more and more evidence that <span>high-resolution convection-permitting models </span><span>(CPMs)</span> (grid-mesh typically < 4 km) can represent especially short-duration precipitation extremes more accurately when compared with coarser-resolution <span>regional climate model</span><span>s </span><span>(RCMs)</span><span>.</span></p><p>This study investigates sub-daily and daily precipitation characteristics based on hourly <span>output data from the HARMONIE-Climate model </span>at 3-km and 12-km grid-mesh resolution over the Nordic region between 1998 and 2018. The RCM modelling chain uses the ERA-Interim reanalysis to drive a 12-km grid-mesh simulation which is further downscaled to 3-km grid-mesh resolution using a non-hydrostatic model set-up.</p><p>The statistical properties of the modeled extreme precipitation are compared to several sub-daily and daily observational products, including gridded and in-situ gauge data, from April to September. We investigate the skill of the model to represent different aspects of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation as well as intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves that are commonly used to investigate short duration extremes from an urban planning perspective. The high grid resolution combined with the 20-year-long simulation period allows for a robust assessment at a climatological time scale <span>and enables us to examine the added value of high-resolution </span><span>CPM</span><span> in reproducing precipitation extremes over the Nordic </span><span>region</span><span>. </span><span>Based on the tentative results, the high-resolution CPM can realistically capture the </span><span>characteristics </span><span>of precipitation extremes, </span><span>for instance, </span><span>in terms of improved diurnal cycle and maximum intensities of sub-daily precipitation.</span></p>

Future response of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region in a convection-permitting regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petter Lind ◽  
Danijel Belušić ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Fuxing Wang ◽  
Erika Toivonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Boundary Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Nordic Region

<p>There is an increased need for more detailed climate information from impact researchers, stakeholders and policy makers for regional-to-local climate change assessments. In order to design relevant and informative planning strategies on these scales it is important to have reliable climate data and information on high spatial O(1km) and temporal (daily to sub-daily) scales. Such high-resolution data is also beneficial for climate impact modellers as input to their models, e.g. hydrological or urban models that operate on regional to local scales. It has been established that regional climate models (RCMs) provide added value compared to coarser global climate models (GCMs) or re-analysis (e.g. ERA-Interim). However, RCMs with standard spatial resolution O(10 − 50km) still suffer from inadequacies in representing important regional-to-local climate phenomena and characteristics, both from the implied ”smoothening” effect within each grid cell which limits the representation of fine scale surface forcings, and the need to parameterize small-scale processes like atmospheric convection. The latter particularly invokes uncertainties in future climate responses of short-duration precipitation extremes such as flash-floods. Here, we compare 20-year simulations with a very high resolution (3 km grid spacing) convection permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) with a standard high-resolution (12 km grid spacing) convection parameterized RCM and their abilities to simulate the climate characteristics of the Nordic region in Europe, with particular focus on precipitation extremes. The study covers both recent past (with boundary data from ERA-Interim and the EC-Earth GCM) and the end of the 21st century (boundary data from EC-Earth using the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario). The high model grid resolution combined with the extensive simulated time period which enables assessment on climatological time scales makes this study one of very few for this region.</p>

scholarly journals Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-208
Author(s):  
Ranka Erić ◽  
Ratko Kadović ◽  
Vladimir Đurđević ◽  
Vesna Đukić
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Historical Observation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and modelled data were extracted from the regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) under the A1B scenario. The average number of days in a year with precipition ≥ 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (R20, R30, R40 and R50), the share of daily precipitation above the 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (P20, P30, P40, P50) in the total annual precipitation and the monthly distribution of these heavy daily precipitation are used as indices of changes in extreme precipitation. These indices, for the three periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, are determined and compared with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961–1990. The results have shown that the main changes in extreme precipitation in Central Serbia will be in their spatial distribution, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme events will decrease. In the future the increase will be more pronounced than the decrease of these indices. We strongly emphasize the benefit of this paper for both the prevention of natural disasters in the study area and for the improvement of the regional climate model.

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall Projections for Malaysia at the End of 21st Century Using the High Resolution Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM)

SOLA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (0) ◽  
pp. 132-139
Author(s):  
Sheau Tieh Ngai ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Jing Xiang Chung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall
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