A Machine-Learning Approach Combining Wavelet Packet Denoising with Catboost for Weather Forecasting

Accurate forecasting of future meteorological elements is critical and has profoundly affected human life in many aspects from rainstorm warning to flight safety. The conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) sometimes leads to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate initial state settings. In this paper, a short-term weather forecasting model based on wavelet packet denoising and Catboost is proposed, which takes advantage of the fusion information combining the historical observation data with the prior knowledge from NWP. The feature selection and spatiotemporal feather addition are also explored to further improve performance. The proposed method is evaluated on the datasets provided by Beijing weather stations. Experimental results demonstrate that compared with many deep-learning or machine-learning methods such as LSTM, Seq2Seq, and random forest, the proposed Catboost model incorporated with wavelet packet denoising can achieve shorter convergence time and higher prediction accuracy.

A Multi-decadal Analysis of Reservoir Storage Change in Developing Regions

The limited amount of shared reservoir monitoring data around the world is insufficient to quantify the dynamic nature of reservoir operation with conventional ground-based methods. With the emergence of the Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) driven by a multitude of earth observing satellites and models, historical observation of reservoir operation spanning 35 years was made using open-source techniques. Trends in reservoir storage change were compared with trends of four critical hydrologic variables (precipitation, runoff, evaporation, and Palmer Drought Severity Index) to understand the potential role of natural drivers in altering reservoir operating pattern. It was found that the reservoirs in Africa were losing active storage at a rate of more than 1% per year of total storage capacity. Smaller reservoirs (with a capacity of less than 0.5 km3) in South-East Asia were found to experience a sharp gain in storage of 0.5% to 1% per year of total storage capacity. Storage change trends of large reservoirs with multiple years of residence time that are designed for strategic water supply needs and drought control were found to be less affected by precipitation trends and influenced more by drought and evaporation trends. Over Africa, most reservoir storage change trends were dictated by evaporation trends, while South Asian reservoirs appear to have their storage change influenced by drought and evaporation trends. Finally, findings suggest that operation of newer reservoirs are more sensitive to long-term hydrological trends and the regulated surface water variability that is controlled by older dams in the upstream.

UKRAINIAN NATIONAL ARCHETYPES AS COMPONENTS OF CULTURE

Purpose of research systematization of information about Ukrainian national archetypes, determination of their characteristics and ways of influencing the formation of Ukrainian culture. Methodology. In achieving this goal, the following research methods were applied: historical, observation, analysis, comparison, periodization method, generalization of the problem studied. Scientific Novelty is to determine the role of Ukrainian national archetypes in the formation and development of culture. Conclusions. Cultural archetypes and historical forms form the foundations of any national culture, including Ukrainian. They determine its content and functional integrity. The basis of our research was the Jungian concept, according to which socio-cultural development provides for a vivid embodiment of archetypes in a particular culture, and vice versa, inhibition of social processes through the absence of a specific archetype. The very concept of an archetype remains multifaceted and voluminous.Ukrainian national cultural archetypes are clearly expressed in myths, legends, fairy tales, customs and rituals, traditions, folklore, which summarizes the experience of our ancestors.

Resource utilization prediction technique in cloud using knowledge based ensemble random forest with LSTM model

Future computation of cloud datacenter resource usage is a provoking task due to dynamic and Business Critic workloads. Accurate prediction of cloud resource utilization through historical observation facilitates, effectively aligning the task with resources, estimating the capacity of a cloud server, applying intensive auto-scaling and controlling resource usage. As imprecise prediction of resources leads to either low or high provisioning of resources in the cloud. This paper focuses on solving this problem in a more proactive way. Most of the existing prediction models are based on a mono pattern of workload which is not suitable for handling peculiar workloads. The researchers address this problem by making use of a contemporary model to dynamically analyze the CPU utilization, so as to precisely estimate data center CPU utilization. The proposed design makes use of an Ensemble Random Forest-Long Short Term Memory based deep architectural models for resource estimation. This design preprocesses and trains data based on historical observation. The approach is analyzed by using a real cloud data set. The empirical interpretation depicts that the proposed design outperforms the previous approaches as it bears 30%–60% enhanced accuracy in resource utilization.

Criminological and forensic characteristics of forms of embezzlement committed through the use of information technology

The article's purpose is the criminological and forensic characteristics of the forms of embezzlement of funds by the use of information technology and international and foreign experience in combating this destructive phenomenon. The object of this article is the relationship that arises in connection with the implementation and counteraction to theft in the field of information technology. The authors used various methods of scientific cognition to write this work. In particular, historical, observation, generalization, comparison and analogy, statistical, analytical, and others. The article emphasizes that the emergence and rapid development of new information technologies do not always positively affect criminals because criminals can transform positive qualities into crime. In particular, crimes of embezzlement through the use of information technology are now widespread. This article has tried to provide a criminological description of the three main forms of cybercrime against money: carding, phishing, and embezzlement committed using NFC technology. In addition, emphasis was placed on the importance, role, tasks of computer and technical expertise in the investigation of embezzlement dedicated through the use of information technology. The importance of implementing international conventions and the positive experience of foreign countries in combating the embezzlement of funds committed through the use of information technology.

Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia

This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and modelled data were extracted from the regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) under the A1B scenario. The average number of days in a year with precipition ≥ 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (R20, R30, R40 and R50), the share of daily precipitation above the 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (P20, P30, P40, P50) in the total annual precipitation and the monthly distribution of these heavy daily precipitation are used as indices of changes in extreme precipitation. These indices, for the three periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, are determined and compared with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961–1990. The results have shown that the main changes in extreme precipitation in Central Serbia will be in their spatial distribution, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme events will decrease. In the future the increase will be more pronounced than the decrease of these indices. We strongly emphasize the benefit of this paper for both the prevention of natural disasters in the study area and for the improvement of the regional climate model.

Fundamental Human Rights and UNO Charter: A Critical Analysis with Islamic Perspectives.

This study presents a critical analysis on the charter of human rights of United Nations, as it was design to promote peace and justice in the world but unfortunately it was not come in true. So the concepts and impacts of human rights presented by UN will be examine in the light of Seerah, and to find out the reasons which caused its failure. It is historical observation that fundamental human rights are very essential for justice and peace in the world. All the peoples have equal rights in all respects. No one is allowed to disregard the rights of others on the basis of race, color and religion. Holy Prophet Muḥammad (PBUH) founded the state of Yathrab and first time in the history declared the fundamental rights of human and vanished the differences based on race, color and gender. Rights for slaves, war prisoners and women were not only defined but were implemented by legal procedure in very short time. In 1948 United Nation declared a charter for human rights which proclaimed that inherent dignity and equal rights are the foundation of freedom, justice and peace of the world. This charter consist on 30 articles regarding individual and common rights of human. This charter of UN guaranteed the security of all fundamental rights of all human being. Although there are number of articles which caused uneasiness among the people of different religions such as article No. 19. Freedom of opinion and express must be observed but it should must be keep in mind that some irresponsible elements of different societies are using this for their criminal purposes as cartoon contest on Prophet Muḥammad (PBUH) by Geert wilders of Holland in recent days caused huge disturbance for world peace. Whereas, the Prophet of Islām ordered the Muslim to respect the clergy of other religions even He (PBUH) halted the Muslims to abuse the idols.

Bridging the scale gap: Obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate

Climate change impact assessment related to floods, infrastructure networks and water resources management applications requires realistic simulations of high-resolution gridded precipitation series under a future climate. This paper proposes to produce such simulations by combining a weather generator for high-resolution gridded daily precipitation, trained on historical observation-based gridded data product, with coarser scale climate change information obtained using a regional climate model. The climate change information can be added to various components of the weather generator, related to both the probability of precipitation as well as the amount of precipitation on wet days. The information is added in a transparent manner, allowing for an assessment of the plausibility of the added information. In a case study of nine hydrological catchments in central Norway with the study areas covering 1000–5500 km2, daily simulations are obtained on a 1 km grid for a period of 19 years. The method yields simulations with realistic temporal and spatial structures and outperforms empirical quantile delta mapping in terms of marginal performance.

Historical observation impact assessments for EUMETNET using the ALADIN/HU limited area model

Two historical Observing System Experiment (OSE) studies using the ALADIN limited area model and its assimilation system are described. The first study, using an OSE scenario that minimizes the impacts of observations through the lateral boundary conditions, demonstrated the importance of each assimilated terrestrial (radiosonde, aircraft, and wind profiler) observations on the analyses and short-range forecasts of the ALADIN/HU model and proved evidence, that the role of conventional observations cannot be even partly taken over by satellite measurements without degradation of the forecast quality. The second study demonstrated that the assimilation of radiosonde observations remains indispensable even with a progressively increasing amount of aircraft measurements.

Hydrological Modelling in Data Sparse Environment: Inverse Modelling of a Historical Flood Event

We dealt with a rather frequent and difficult situation while modelling extreme floods, namely, model output uncertainty in data sparse regions. A historical extreme flood event was chosen to illustrate the challenges involved. Our aim was to understand what the causes might have been and specifically to show how input and model parameter uncertainties affect the output. For this purpose, a conceptual model was calibrated and validated with recent data rich time period. Resulting model parameters were used to model the historical event which subsequently resulted in a rather poor hydrograph. Due to the bad model performance, a spatial simulation technique was used to invert the model for precipitation. Constraints, such as taking the precipitation values at historical observation locations in to account, with correct spatial structures and following the observed regional distributions were used to generate realistic precipitation fields. Results showed that the inverted precipitation improved the performance significantly even when using many different model parameters. We conclude that while modelling in data sparse conditions both model input and parameter uncertainties have to be dealt with simultaneously to obtain meaningful results.