The codependence of contributors to regional sea-level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erwin Lambert ◽  
Dewi Le Bars ◽  
Roderik van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

<p>Science-based policy for coastal protection requires accurate estimates of the uncertainty in regional sea-level rise. These estimates are strongly influenced by the codependence of individual contributors: thermosteric expansion, ocean dynamics, and mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets. In this study, we use model output and parameterisations to quantify the projected total sea-level rise from a set of 15 Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5. We use these model-based estimates of total sea-level rise to quantify the codependence of individual contributors, determined by the full climate response. We find that assumptions on codependence made in recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lead to an overestimation in the uncertainty in regional sea-level rise by 20 to 60%. We further conclude that global mean surface temperature rise is a poor indicator for the inter-model difference in regional sea-level rise as it does not account for inter-model differences in atmospheric and oceanic heat distribution and precipitation patterns. The codependencies derived in this study are suitable for application to new projections, allowing for accurate and consistent estimates of the uncertainty in global and regional sea-level rise.</p>

The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Regional Sea-Level Rise Estimates

2012 ◽  
Vol 280 ◽  
pp. 511-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Pieter H. A. J. M. van Gelder ◽  
John de Ronde ◽  
Mark van Koningsveld ◽  
Bert Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

scholarly journals Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isavela N. Monioudi ◽  
Adonis F. Velegrakis ◽  
Antonis E. Chatzipavlis ◽  
Anastasios Rigos ◽  
Theophanis Karambas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Resource

Abstract. The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths < 20 m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5 m – representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) – a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29–87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.

scholarly journals The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1015-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Christophe Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe, making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increased mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single-source contribution after the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6). While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can thus be from as low as 20 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) to as high as 160 mm SLE. Amongst the models tested in ISMIP6, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) models produce larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low-emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mm SLE in 2100 in our simulations. In addition, the dynamical contribution to ice thickness change is small compared to the impact of surface mass balance. This suggests that mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin. With additional sensitivity experiments we also show that the spread in mass loss is only weakly affected by the choice of the ice sheet model mechanical parameters.

scholarly journals Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Déborah Idier ◽  
Jean-Charles Manceau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Selection Of

In the area of sea-level rise, recent research has focused on assessing either likely or high end future sea levels, but less attention has been given to “low-end” sea-level projections, exploring best-case potential sea-level changes and providing the basis for estimating minimum adaptation needs. Here, we provide global and regional probabilistic sea-level projections using conservative projections of glaciers and ice-sheets melting and a selection of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) delivering moderate thermal expansion. Our low-end sea-level projections are higher than previously estimated because they rely on modeling outcomes only, and do not add any expert judgement, aiming essentially at delivering more realistic upper tails. While there are good reasons to believe that our projections are excessively optimistic, they can be used as low-end sea-level projections in order to inform users with low aversion to uncertainty. Our low-end sea-level projection exceeds 0.5 m along most inhabited coasts by 2100 for business as usual greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), which is relevant for adaptation practitioners as long as efficient climate change mitigation policies are not implemented. This means that without efficient climate mitigation, an acceleration of sea-level rise can hardly be avoided during the 21st century.

QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Diandong Ren ◽  
◽  
Lance Leslie ◽  
Mervyn Lynch ◽  
Qinghua Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise and Impacts on Maritime Zones and Limits

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Freestone ◽  
Davor Vidas ◽  
Alejandra Torres Camprubí
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
International Legal System ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Regional Sea Level Change

As the oceans warm and ice melts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) now predicts a global average sea level rise of up to one meter by 2100. AR5 also emphasizes that sea level rise will have “a strong regional pattern, with some places experiencing significant deviations of local and regional sea level change from the global mean change.” These predictions pose serious and possibly existential threats to the inhabitants of low-lying islands and coastal areas, and pose challenges for the international legal system to respond in an orderly and humane way to these novel situations. In 2012, the International Law Association (ila) established a new Committee to look specifically at these issues. This article looks at the work undertaken by the Committee to date regarding the law of the sea aspects of its mandate and identifies some considerations for its future work.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document