On the influence of climate and land use change on monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Ayers ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Keith Schilling ◽  
Chris Jones
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
The U.S

<p>This study examines the role played by changes in the climate system and land use in the observed monthly baseflow records (1966-2015) for 458 U. S. Geological Survey sites across the U.S. Midwest. We developed parsimonious statistical models in which monthly baseflow is related to any combination of four predictors (precipitation, temperature, antecedent wetness, and agriculture). We found that precipitation and antecedent wetness were the strongest predictors for all months, pointing to the role of water availability and infiltration in driving baseflow. Temperature was an important factor in the winter and spring where snow-melt processes are the most relevant. Agriculture was selected in the Corn Belt region during the growing season (from April to August) indicating that corn and soybean production in the Midwest promote baseflow discharge to streams. Overall, the goodness-of-fit for our models and cross validation strongly support our modeling results for all months. Differences in model selection reported here can aid water managers in decision making for water availability, food security and economic growth.</p>

Growing-Season Synoptic and Phenological Controls on Heat Fluxes over Forest and Cropland Sites in the Midwest U.S. Corn Belt

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-400
Author(s):  
Mikael P. Hiestand ◽  
Andrew M. Carleton
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Mesoscale Circulations ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
South Central

AbstractSpatial variations in land use/land cover (LULC) in the Midwest U.S. Corn Belt—specifically, deciduous forest and croplands—have been suggested as influencing convective rainfall through mesoscale circulations generated in the atmosphere’s boundary layer. However, the contributing role of latent and sensible heat fluxes for these two LULC types, and their modulation by synoptic weather systems, have not been determined. This study compares afternoon averages of convective fluxes at two AmeriFlux towers in relation to manually determined synoptic pressure patterns covering the nine growing seasons (1 May–30 September) of 1999–2007. AmeriFlux tower U.S.-Bo1 in eastern Illinois represents agricultural land use—alternating between maize and soybean crops—and AmeriFlux tower U.S.-MMS in south-central Indiana represents deciduous forest cover. Phenologically, the latent and sensible heat fluxes vary inversely across the growing season, and the greatest flux differences between cropland and deciduous forest occur early in the season. Differences in the surface heat fluxes between crop and forest LULC types vary in magnitude according to synoptic type. Moreover, statistically significant differences in latent and sensible heat between the forest and cropland sites occur for the most frequently occurring synoptic pattern of a low pressure system to the west and high pressure to the east of the Corn Belt. The present study lays the groundwork for determining the physical mechanisms of enhanced convection in the Corn Belt, including how LULC-induced mesoscale circulations might interact with synoptic weather patterns to enhance convective rainfall.

scholarly journals Climate Variability and the U.S. Corn Belt: ENSO and AO Episode-Dependent Hydroclimatic Feedbacks to Corn Production at Regional and Local Scales*

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Kellner ◽  
Dev Niyogi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
Corn Production ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The U.S

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climatology (1980–2010) is developed and analyzed across the U.S. Corn Belt using state climate division weather and historic corn yield data using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and correlation analysis. Findings provide insight to agroclimatic conditions under different ENSO and AO episodes and are analyzed with a perspective for potential impacts to agricultural production and planning, with findings being developed into a web-based tool for the U.S. Corn Belt. This study is unique in that it utilizes the oceanic Niño index and explores two teleconnection patterns that influence weather across different spatiotemporal scales. It is found that the AO has a more frequent weak to moderate correlation to historic yields than ENSO when correlated by average subgrowing season index values. Yield anomaly and ENSO and AO episode analysis affirms the overall positive impact of El Niño events on yields compared to La Niña events, with neutral ENSO events in between as found in previous studies. Yields when binned by the AO episode present more uncertainty. While significant temperature and precipitation impacts from ENSO and AO are felt outside of the primary growing season, correlation between threshold variables of episode-specific temperature and precipitation and historic yields suggests that relationships between ENSO and AO and yield are present during specific months of the growing season, particularly August. Overall, spatial climatic variability resulting from ENSO and AO episodes contributes to yield potential at regional to subregional scales, making generalization of impacts difficult and highlighting a continued need for finescale resolution analysis of ENSO and AO signal impacts on corn production.

Climate Change: Length of Growing-Season in the U.S. Corn Belt, 1911-2000

2005 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pam Miller ◽  
Martin Mitchell ◽  
Jose Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
The U.S
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