scholarly journals Antarctic Atmospheric River Climatology and Impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Wille ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
Irina V. Gorodetskaya ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Jai Chowdhry Beeman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Antarctic Continent ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Atmospheric rivers, broadly defined as narrow yet long bands of strong horizontal vapor transport typically imbedded in a low level jet ahead of a cold front of an extratropical cyclone, provide a sub-tropical connection to the Antarctic continent and are observed to significantly impact the affected region’s surface mass balance over short, extreme events. When an atmospheric river makes landfall on the Antarctic continent, their signature is clearly observed in increased downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water content, surface temperature, snowfall, surface melt, and moisture transport.</p><p>Using an atmospheric river detection algorithm designed for Antarctica and regional climate simulations from MAR, we created a climatology of atmospheric river occurrence and their associated impacts on surface melt and snowfall. Despite their rarity of occurrence over Antarctica (maximum frequency of ~1.5% over a given point), they have produced significant impacts on melting and snowfall processes. From 1979-2017, atmospheric rivers landfalls and their associated radiative flux anomalies and foehn winds accounted for around 40% of the total summer surface melt on the Ross Ice Shelf (approaching 100% at higher elevations in Marie Byrd Land) and 40-80% of total winter surface melt on the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other side of the continent in East Antarctica, atmospheric rivers have a greater influence on annual snowfall variability. There atmospheric rivers are responsible for 20-40% of annual snowfall with localized higher percentages across Dronning Maud Land, Amery Ice Shelf, and Wilkes Land.</p><p>Atmospheric river landfalls occur within a highly amplified polar jet pattern and often are found in the entrance region of a blocking ridge. Therefore, atmospheric river variability is connected with atmospheric blocking variability over the Southern Ocean. There has been a significant increase in atmospheric river activity over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sea and coastline and into Dronning Maud Land region from 1980-2018. Meanwhile, there is a significant decreasing trend in the region surrounding Law Dome. Our results suggest that atmospheric rivers play a significant role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, and that any future changes in atmospheric blocking or tropical-polar teleconnections may have significant impacts on future surface mass balance projections.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics of ice rises and ice rumples in Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land, Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (260) ◽  
pp. 1064-1078
Author(s):  
Vikram Goel ◽  
Kenichi Matsuoka ◽  
Cesar Deschamps Berger ◽  
Ian Lee ◽  
Jørgen Dall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Past ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractIce rises and rumples, locally grounded features adjacent to ice shelves, are relatively small yet play significant roles in Antarctic ice dynamics. Their roles generally depend upon their location within the ice shelf and the stage of the ice-sheet retreat or advance. Large, long-stable ice rises can be excellent sites for deep ice coring and paleoclimate study of the Antarctic coast and the Southern Ocean, while small ice rises tend to respond more promptly and can be used to reveal recent changes in regional mass balance. The coasts of Dronning Maud Land (DML) and Enderby Land in East Antarctica are abundant with these features. Here we review existing knowledge, presenting an up-to-date status of research in these regions with focus on ice rises and rumples. We use regional datasets (satellite imagery, surface mass balance and ice thickness) to analyze the extent and surface morphology of ice shelves and characteristic timescales of ice rises. We find that large parts of DML have been changing over the past several millennia. Based on our findings, we highlight ice rises suitable for drilling ice cores for paleoclimate studies as well as ice rises suitable for deciphering ice dynamics and evolution in the region.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of Surface Climatology in State-of-the-Art Reanalyses over the Antarctic Ice Sheet

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 6899-6915 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gossart ◽  
S. Helsen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
S. Vanden Broucke ◽  
N. P. M. van Lipzig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract In this study, we evaluate output of near-surface atmospheric variables over the Antarctic Ice Sheet from four reanalyses: the new European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The near-surface temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity are compared with datasets of in situ observations, together with an assessment of the simulated surface mass balance (approximated by precipitation minus evaporation). No reanalysis clearly stands out as the best performing for all areas, seasons, and variables, and each of the reanalyses displays different biases. CFSR strongly overestimates the relative humidity during all seasons whereas ERA-5 and MERRA-2 (and, to a lesser extent, ERA-Interim) strongly underestimate relative humidity during winter. ERA-5 captures the seasonal cycle of near-surface temperature best and shows the smallest bias relative to the observations. The other reanalyses show a general temperature underestimation during the winter months in the Antarctic interior and overestimation in the coastal areas. All reanalyses underestimate the mean near-surface winds in the interior (except MERRA-2) and along the coast during the entire year. The winds at the Antarctic Peninsula are overestimated by all reanalyses except MERRA-2. All models are able to capture snowfall patterns related to atmospheric rivers, with varying accuracy. Accumulation is best represented by ERA-5, although it underestimates observed surface mass balance and there is some variability in the accumulation over the different elevation classes, for all reanalyses.

The vertical structure of atmospheric rivers and their impact in the Atlantic sector of Antarctica from the Year of Polar Prediction observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina V. Gorodetskaya ◽  
Penny M. Rowe ◽  
Heike Kalesse ◽  
Tiago Silva ◽  
Naohiko Hirasawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) had a special observing period (SOP) from November 16, 2018 to February 15, 2019, during which observational activity during austral summer in the Antarctic was greatly enhanced. More than 2000 additional radiosondes were launched during this 3-month period, roughly doubling the amount from routine programs. Further, several YOPP-endorsed projects contributed to enhanced data collection on various atmospheric and oceanic properties, including the Characterization of the Antarctic Atmosphere and Low Clouds (CAALC) project at King George Island (Antarctic Peninsula) and the Dynamics, Aerosol, Cloud And Precipitation Observations in the Pristine Environment of the Southern Ocean (DACAPO-PESO) field experiment in Punta Arenas (Sub-Antarctic Chile). Here we use the YOPP-SH-SOP observations to investigate the vertical structure of atmospheric rivers (ARs), along with their impact on cloud properties, radiative budgets, and precipitation in the Atlantic sector of Antarctica, including coastal areas of sub-Antarctic Chile, the Antarctic Peninsula and Dronning Maud Land (DML).</p><p>ARs can transport anomalous heat and moisture from subtropical regions to the Antarctic, with important impacts on Antarctic surface mass balance. On the Antarctic Peninsula, the surface mass balance can be especially sensitive to AR events during summer, when surface temperatures vary around zero and frequent transitions occur between snow and rainfall. The importance of ARs for the coastal DML is also linked to precipitation events during summer, but is more strongly linked to extreme snowfall events (rather than rainfall), and such events have resulted in anomalously high snow accumulation in DML in recent years.</p><p>We will present case studies that demonstrate how combining extensive ground-based observations and radiosoundings from stations in the sub-Antarctic and Antarctic allow for detailed characterization of the temporal evolution of AR events. Analysis of the observations and model sensitivity studies (using Polar-WRF) with additional radiosonde assimilation show the influence of ARs on the Antarctic atmospheric, cloud properties and surface precipitation, as well as the challenges in correctly forecasting conditions during such events. Further, we use SOP enhanced radiosonde programs at Neumayer and Syowa stations to investigate the AR signatures in the atmospheric vertical profiles in the DML coastal areas. The AR events observed during YOPP-SH are put in the context of the longer-term radiosonde observations using 10 years (from 2009 to 2019) of the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) Version 2 data. The increased frequency of radiosonde observations during YOPP was crucial for elucidating the important contribution these rare events make to the moisture transport towards Antarctica. They also showed an added value in improving the forecast of weather conditions during AR events, which have important consequences for air, ship and station operations in Antarctica.</p>

Decreasing Antarctic surface mass balance due to runoff-dominated ablation by 2100

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Nicolas Jourdain ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

<p><span>The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet is often considered as a negative contributor to the sea level rise as present snowfall accumulation largely compensate</span><span>s</span><span> for ablation through wind erosion, sublimation and runoff. The latter is even almost negligible since current Antarctic surface melting is limited to relatively scarce events over generally peripheral areas and refreezes almost entirely into the snowpack. However, melting can significantly affect the stability of ice shelves through hydrofracturing, potentially leading to their disintegration, acceleration of grounded ice and increased sea level rise. Although a large increase in snowfall is expected in a warmer climate, more numerous and stronger melting events could conversely lead to a larger risk of ice shelf collapse. In this study, we provide an estimation of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet for the end of the 21st century by forcing the state-of-the-art regional climate model MAR with three different global climate models. We chose the models (from both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 - CMIP5 and CMIP6) providing the best metrics for representing the current Antarctic climate. While the increase in snowfall largely compensates snow ablation through runoff in CMIP5-forced projections, CMIP6-forced simulations reveal that runoff cannot be neglected in the future as it accounts for a maximum of 50% of snowfall and becomes the main ablation component over the ice sheet. Furthermore, we identify a tipping point (ie., a warming of 4°C) at which the Antarctic SMB starts to decrease as a result of enhanced runoff particularly over ice shelves. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account meltwater production and runoff and indicate that previous model studies neglecting these processes yield overestimated SMB estimates, ultimately leading to underestimated Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Finally, melt rates over each ice shelf are higher than those that led to the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves, suggesting a high probability of ice shelf collapses all over peripheral Antarctica by 2100.</span></p>

scholarly journals Glaciological settings and recent mass balance of the Blåskimen Island in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vikram Goel ◽  
Joel Brown ◽  
Kenichi Matsuoka
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Characteristic Time ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Past ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Method Show ◽  
Firn Core

Abstract. The Dronning Maud Land coast in East Antarctica has numerous ice rises that very likely control the dynamics and mass balance of this region. However, only a few of these ice rises have been investigated in detail. Here, we report field measurements of Blåskimen Island, an isle-type ice rise adjacent to the Fimbul Ice Shelf. Blåskimen Island is largely dome shaped, with a pronounced ridge extending to the southwest from its summit (410 m a.s.l.). Its bed is mostly flat and about 100 m below the current sea level. Shallow radar-detected isochrones dated with a firn core reveal that the surface mass balance is higher on the southeastern slope than the northwestern slope by ~ 37 %, and this pattern has persisted for at least the past decade. Radar stratigraphy shows upward arches underneath the summit, indicating that the summit position has been stable over at least one characteristic time of this ice rise (~ 600 years). Ensemble estimates of the mass balance using the input-output method show that this ice rise has thickened by 0.07–0.35 m ice equivalent per year over the past decade.

Surface mass balance and melting projections over the Amundsen coastal region, West Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Jourdain ◽  
Marion Donat-Magnin ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Future ◽  
Surface Melt

<p>We present Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and surface melt rates projections in West Antarctica for the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century using the MAR regional atmosphere and firn model (Gallée 1994; Agosta et al. 2019) forced by a CMIP5-rcp85 multi-model-mean seasonal anomaly added to the ERA-Interim 6-hourly reanalysis.</p><p> </p><p>First of all, we assess the validity of our projection method, following a perfect-model approach, with MAR constrained by the ACCESS-1.3 present-day and future climates. Changes in large-scale variables are well captured by our anomaly-based projection method, and errors on surface melting and SMB projections are typically 10%.</p><p> </p><p>Based on the CMIP5-rcp85 multi-model mean, SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the Amundsen sector is projected to increase by 35% over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. This corresponds to a SMB sensitivity to near-surface warming of 8.3%.°C<sup>-1</sup>. Increased humidity, resulting from both higher water vapour saturation in warmer conditions and decreased sea-ice concentrations, are shown to favour increased SMB in the future scenario.</p><p> </p><p>Ice-shelf surface melt rates at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century are projected to become 6 to 15 times larger than presently, depending on the ice shelf under consideration. This is due to enhanced downward longwave radiative fluxes related to increased humidity, and to an albedo feedback leading to more absorption of shortwave radiation. Interestingly, only three ice shelves produce runoff (Abbot, Cosgrove and Pine Island) in the future climate. For the other ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, Getz), the future melt-to-snowfall ratio remains too low to produce firn air depletion and subsequent runoff.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2411-2426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽  
Daniel McGrath ◽  
Brooke Medley ◽  
Adrian Luckman ◽  
Suzanne Bevan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Airborne Radar ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
The West ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Larsen C ice shelf (LCIS), Antarctica, is poorly constrained due to a dearth of in situ observations. Combining several geophysical techniques, we reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of SMB over the LCIS. Continuous time series of snow height (2.5–6 years) at five locations allow for multi-year estimates of seasonal and annual SMB over the LCIS. There is high interannual variability in SMB as well as spatial variability: in the north, SMB is 0.40 ± 0.06 to 0.41 ± 0.04 m w.e. year−1, while farther south, SMB is up to 0.50 ± 0.05 m w.e. year−1. This difference between north and south is corroborated by winter snow accumulation derived from an airborne radar survey from 2009, which showed an average snow thickness of 0.34 m w.e. north of 66° S, and 0.40 m w.e. south of 68° S. Analysis of ground-penetrating radar from several field campaigns allows for a longer-term perspective of spatial variations in SMB: a particularly strong and coherent reflection horizon below 25–44 m of water-equivalent ice and firn is observed in radargrams collected across the shelf. We propose that this horizon was formed synchronously across the ice shelf. Combining snow height observations, ground and airborne radar, and SMB output from a regional climate model yields a gridded estimate of SMB over the LCIS. It confirms that SMB increases from north to south, overprinted by a gradient of increasing SMB to the west, modulated in the west by föhn-induced sublimation. Previous observations show a strong decrease in firn air content toward the west, which we attribute to spatial patterns of melt, refreezing, and densification rather than SMB.

scholarly journals Surface mass balance and water stable isotopes derived from firn cores on three ice rises, Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2763-2777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen P. Vega ◽  
Elisabeth Schlosser ◽  
Dmitry V. Divine ◽  
Jack Kohler ◽  
Tõnu Martma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Stable Isotope ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Water Stable Isotope

Abstract. Three shallow firn cores were retrieved in the austral summers of 2011/12 and 2013/14 on the ice rises Kupol Ciolkovskogo (KC), Kupol Moskovskij (KM), and Blåskimen Island (BI), all part of Fimbul Ice Shelf (FIS) in western Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica. The cores were dated back to 1958 (KC), 1995 (KM), and 1996 (BI) by annual layer counting using high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) data, and by identifying volcanic horizons using non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42−) data. The water stable isotope records show that the atmospheric signature of the annual snow accumulation cycle is well preserved in the firn column, especially at KM and BI. We are able to determine the annual surface mass balance (SMB), as well as the mean SMB values between identified volcanic horizons. Average SMB at the KM and BI sites (0.68 and 0.70 mw. e. yr−1) was higher than at the KC site (0.24 mw. e. yr−1), and there was greater temporal variability as well. Trends in the SMB and δ18O records from the KC core over the period of 1958–2012 agree well with other previously investigated cores in the area, thus the KC site could be considered the most representative of the climate of the region. Cores from KM and BI appear to be more affected by local meteorological conditions and surface topography. Our results suggest that the ice rises are suitable sites for the retrieval of longer firn and ice cores, but that BI has the best preserved seasonal cycles of the three records and is thus the most optimal site for high-resolution studies of temporal variability of the climate signal. Deuterium excess data suggest a possible effect of seasonal moisture transport changes on the annual isotopic signal. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most likely provide the dominant influence on water stable isotope ratios preserved at the core sites.

scholarly journals Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 571-593
Author(s):  
Marion Donat-Magnin ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Net Production ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Surface Liquid ◽  
Surface Melt

Abstract. We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.

scholarly journals An updated and quality controlled surface mass balance dataset for Antarctica

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 3667-3702 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Favier ◽  
C. Agosta ◽  
S. Parouty ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
G. Delaygue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Measurement Accuracy ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Spatial Density ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Data Gaps ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. We present an updated and quality controlled surface mass balance (SMB) database for the Antarctic ice sheet. We retrieved a total of 5284 SMB data documented with important meta-data, to which a filter was applied to discard data with limited spatial and temporal representativeness, too small measurement accuracy, or lack of quality control. A total of 3438 reliable data was obtained, which is about four times more than by applying the same data filtering process to previously available databases. New important data with high spatial resolution are now available over long traverses, and at low elevation in some areas. However, the quality control led to a considerable reduction in the spatial density of data in several regions, particularly over West Antarctica. Over interior plateaus, where the SMB is low, the spatial density of measurements remained high. This quality controlled dataset was compared to results from ERA-Interim reanalysis to assess model representativeness over Antarctica, and also to identify large areas where data gaps impede model validation. Except for very few areas (e.g. Adelie Land), the elevation range between 200 m and 1000 m a.s.l. is not correctly sampled in the field, and measurements do not allow a thorough validation of models in regions with complex topography, where the highest scattering of SMB values is reported. Clearly, increasing the spatial density of field measurements at low elevations, in the Antarctic Peninsula and in West Antarctica remains a scientific priority.

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