scholarly journals Compound Hot-Dry and Cold-Wet Dynamical Extremes Over the Mediterranean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo De Luca ◽  
Gabriele Messori ◽  
Davide Faranda ◽  
Philip J. Ward ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Systems Analysis ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Coupling Parameter ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Dynamical Systems Analysis ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. The Mediterranean (MED) basin is a climate change hot-spot that has seen drying and a pronounced increase in heatwaves over the last century. At the same time, it is experiencing increasing heavy precipitation during wintertime cold spells. Understanding and quantifying the risks from compound events over the MED is paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we apply a novel method to study compound events based on dynamical systems theory and analyse compound temperature and precipitation anomalies over the MED from 1979 to 2018. The dynamical systems analysis measures the strength of the coupling between different atmospheric variables over the MED. Further, we consider compound hot-dry days in summer and cold-wet days in winter. Our results show that these hot-dry and cold-wet compound days are associated with maxima in the temperature–precipitation coupling parameter of the dynamical systems analysis. This indicates that there is a strong interaction between temperature and precipitation during compound events. In summer, we find a significant upward trend in the coupling between temperature and precipitation over 1979–2018, which is likely driven by a stronger coupling during hot and dry days. Thermodynamic processes associated with long-term MED warming can best explain the trend. No such trend is found for wintertime cold-wet compound events. Our findings suggest that long-term warming strengthens the coupling of temperature and precipitation which intensifies hot-dry compound events.

scholarly journals Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 793-805
Author(s):  
Paolo De Luca ◽  
Gabriele Messori ◽  
Davide Faranda ◽  
Philip J. Ward ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Systems Analysis ◽  
Coupling Parameter ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Dynamical Systems Analysis ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures

Abstract. The Mediterranean (MED) Basin is a climate change hotspot that has seen drying and a pronounced increase in heatwaves over the last century. At the same time, it is experiencing increased heavy precipitation during wintertime cold spells. Understanding and quantifying the risks from compound events over the MED is paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we apply a novel method to study compound events based on dynamical systems theory and analyse compound temperature and precipitation events over the MED from 1979 to 2018. The dynamical systems analysis quantifies the strength of the coupling between different atmospheric variables over the MED. Further, we consider compound warm–dry anomalies in summer and cold–wet anomalies in winter. Our results show that these warm–dry and cold–wet compound days are associated with large values of the temperature–precipitation coupling parameter of the dynamical systems analysis. This indicates that there is a strong interaction between temperature and precipitation during compound events. In winter, we find no significant trend in the coupling between temperature and precipitation. However in summer, we find a significant upward trend which is likely driven by a stronger coupling during warm and dry days. Thermodynamic processes associated with long-term MED warming can best explain the trend, which intensifies compound warm–dry events.

Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Cos ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Jury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Model Weighting

<p>The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.</p><p>To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference. </p><p>Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7ºC in summer and 2.7 and 5ºC in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2ºC in summer and 3.2 to 6.8ºC in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.</p>

The High Frequency coastal radar network in the Mediterranean: joint efforts towards a fully operational implementation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Lorente ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Marine Environment ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Mediterranean

<p>The Mediterranean Sea is considered a relevant geostrategic region and a prominent climate change hot spot. This semi-enclosed basin has been the subject of abundant studies due to its vulnerability to sea-level rise and other coastal hazards. With the steady advent of new technologies, a growing wealth of observational data are nowadays available to efficiently monitor the sea state and properly respond to socio-ecological challenges and stakeholder needs, thereby strengthening the community resilience at multiple scales.</p><p>Nowadays, High-Frequency radar (HFR) is a worldwide consolidated land-based remote sensing technology since it provides, concurrently and in near real time, fine-resolution maps of the surface circulation along with (increasingly) wave and wind information over broad coastal areas. HFR systems present a wide range of practical applications: maritime safety, oil spill emergencies, energy production, management of extreme coastal hazards. Consequently, they have become an essential component of coastal ocean observatories since they offer a unique dynamical framework that complement conventional in-situ observing platforms. Likewise, within the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), HFR are valuable assets that play a key pivotal role in both the effective monitoring of coastal areas and the rigorous skill assessment of operational ocean forecasting systems.</p><p>The present work aims to show a panoramic overview not only of the current status of diverse Mediterranean HFR systems, but also of the coordinated joint efforts between many multi-disciplinary institutions to establish a permanent HFR monitoring network in the Mediterranean, aligned with European and global initiatives. In this context, it is worth highlighting that many of the Mediterranean HFR systems are already integrated into the European HFR Node, which acts as central focal point for data collection, homogenization, quality assurance and dissemination and promotes networking between EU infrastructures and the Global HFR network.</p><p>Furthermore, priority challenges tied to the implementation of a long-term, fully integrated, sustainable operational Mediterranean HFR network are described. This includes aspects related to the setting up of such a system within the broader framework of the European Ocean Observing System (EOOS), and a long-term financial support required to preserve the infrastructure core service already implemented. Apart from the technological challenges, the enhancing of the HFR data discovery and access, the boosting of the data usage as well as the research integration must be achieved by building synergies among academia, management agencies, state government offices, intermediate and end users. This would guarantee a coordinated development of tailored products that meet the societal needs and foster user uptake, serving the marine industry with dedicated smart innovative services, along with the promotion of strategic planning and informed decision-making in the marine environment.</p>

scholarly journals Nonlinear jet-flap interactions: a dynamical-systems analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Onofrio Semeraro ◽  
Peter Jordan ◽  
Vincent Jaunet ◽  
Francois Lusseyran
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Systems Analysis ◽  
Dynamical Systems Analysis
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