scholarly journals Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 169-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. A. Slangen ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Y. Wada ◽  
L. L. A. Vermeersen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of the regional measurements can be explained. Processes that are included are land ice mass changes and terrestrial storage changes with associated gravitational, rotational and deformational effects, steric/dynamic changes, atmospheric pressure loading and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). The study focuses on the mean linear trend between 1961 and 2003. It is found that on a regional level the explained variance of the observed trend is 0.87 with a regression coefficient of 1.08. The observations and models overlap within the 1σ uncertainty range in all regions. The leading processes in explaining the variability in the observations appear to be the steric/dynamic component and the GIA. Local observations prove to be more difficult to explain because they show larger spatial variations, and therefore require more information on small-scale processes.

scholarly journals Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 243-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. A. Slangen ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Y. Wada ◽  
L. L. A. Vermeersen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of the regional measurements can be explained. Processes that are included are land ice mass changes and terrestrial storage changes with associated gravitational, rotational and deformational effects, steric/dynamic changes, atmospheric pressure loading and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The study focuses on the mean linear trend of regional sea-level rise between 1961 and 2003. It is found that on a regional level the explained variance of the observed trend is 0.87 with a regression coefficient of 1.07. The observations and models overlap within the 1σ uncertainty range in all regions. The main processes explaining the variability in the observations appear to be the steric/dynamic component and the GIA. Local observations prove to be more difficult to explain because they show larger spatial variations, and therefore require more information on small-scale processes.

scholarly journals Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinping Wang ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Xianyao Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Weighted Mean ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Regional Sea Level Change

AbstractThe ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21st century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions.

scholarly journals Ocean-only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Todd ◽  
Laure Zanna ◽  
Matthew Couldrey ◽  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
Quran Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Dynamic Sea Level

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (21) ◽  
pp. 8521-8539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimée B. A. Slangen ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Didier P. Monselesan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Level Change ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.

scholarly journals Tide Gauge Records May Underestimate 20th Century Sea Level Rise

Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah Crane
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Level Change

Tide gauges can help measure sea level change, but their limited locations and short records make it hard to pinpoint trends. Now researchers are evaluating the instruments' limitations.

scholarly journals A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 525-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niamh Cahill ◽  
Andrew C. Kemp ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
Andrew C. Parnell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Tidal Elevation ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera) and geochemical (δ13C) sea-level indicators preserved in dated cores of salt-marsh sediment. Our model is comprised of three modules: (1) a new Bayesian transfer (B-TF) function for the calibration of biological indicators into tidal elevation, which is flexible enough to formally accommodate additional proxies; (2) an existing chronology developed using the Bchron age–depth model, and (3) an existing Errors-In-Variables integrated Gaussian process (EIV-IGP) model for estimating rates of sea-level change. Our approach is illustrated using a case study of Common Era sea-level variability from New Jersey, USA We develop a new B-TF using foraminifera, with and without the additional (δ13C) proxy and compare our results to those from a widely used weighted-averaging transfer function (WA-TF). The formal incorporation of a second proxy into the B-TF model results in smaller vertical uncertainties and improved accuracy for reconstructed RSL. The vertical uncertainty from the multi-proxy B-TF is  ∼  28 % smaller on average compared to the WA-TF. When evaluated against historic tide-gauge measurements, the multi-proxy B-TF most accurately reconstructs the RSL changes observed in the instrumental record (mean square error  =  0.003 m2). The Bayesian hierarchical model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea-level change through time. This approach is suitable for reconstructing other paleoenvironmental variables (e.g., temperature) using biological proxies.

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