scholarly journals Increase in urban flood risk resulting from climate change – The role of storm temporal patterns

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suresh Hettiarachchi ◽  
Conrad Wasko ◽  
Ashish Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

Abstract. Warming temperatures are causing extreme rainfall to intensify resulting in increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The study presented in this manuscript uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk: (1) How does climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? The updated NOAA Atlas 14 intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns, widely used in design and planning modelling in the USA, form the basis of the assessment reported here. Current literature shows that a rise in temperature will result in intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation measures. We use the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081–2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The modelling analysis for a 22 km2 developed watershed show that temporal patterns cause substantial variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude between 1 to 35 % with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal pattern and the storm volume increasing flood risk by between 10 to 170 % across the locations that were referenced for a 50 year return period storm. The variability in catchment response to temporal patterns show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded at the latter part of the storm duration while the short duration extremely intense storms will cause extensive flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban catchment response and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for design and planning future stormwater systems.

scholarly journals Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed – the role of storm temporal patterns

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 2041-2056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suresh Hettiarachchi ◽  
Conrad Wasko ◽  
Ashish Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Rainfall Patterns

Abstract. The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081–2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded in the latter part of the storm duration, while extremely intense short-duration storms will cause flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban flooding and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for the design and planning of future storm water systems.

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting Future Urban Flood Risk Using Land Change and Hydraulic Modeling in a River Watershed in the Central Province of Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 262
Author(s):  
Huu Duy Nguyen ◽  
Dennis Fox ◽  
Dinh Kha Dang ◽  
Le Tuan Pham ◽  
Quan Vu Viet Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Land Change ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

Flood risk is a significant challenge for sustainable spatial planning, particularly concerning climate change and urbanization. Phrasing suitable land planning strategies requires assessing future flood risk and predicting the impact of urban sprawl. This study aims to develop an innovative approach combining land use change and hydraulic models to explore future urban flood risk, aiming to reduce it under different vulnerability and exposure scenarios. SPOT-3 and Sentinel-2 images were processed and classified to create land cover maps for 1995 and 2019, and these were used to predict the 2040 land cover using the Land Change Modeler Module of Terrset. Flood risk was computed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability using hydrodynamic modeling and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. We have compared flood risk in 1995, 2019, and 2040. Although flood risk increases with urbanization, population density, and the number of hospitals in the flood plain, especially in the coastal region, the area exposed to high and very high risks decreases due to a reduction in poverty rate. This study can provide a theoretical framework supporting climate change related to risk assessment in other metropolitan regions. Methodologically, it underlines the importance of using satellite imagery and the continuity of data in the planning-related decision-making process.

scholarly journals Urban Flood Risk Reduction by Increasing Green Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 2241-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Zimmermann ◽  
Laura Bracalenti ◽  
Rubén Piacentini ◽  
Luis Inostroza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Green Areas ◽  
Flood Risk Reduction ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

scholarly journals Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.N. Pedersen ◽  
P.S. Mikkelsen ◽  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

scholarly journals Drivers of future urban flood risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2168) ◽  
pp. 20190216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily C. O'Donnell ◽  
Colin R. Thorne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
First Century ◽  
Urban Spaces ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Science Technology ◽  
Economic Worth ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the twenty-first century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002–2004 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban asset deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in buildings and contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated) have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: loss of floodable urban spaces and indirect economic impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Urban flood resilience’.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document