FUTURE PREDICTION OF THE EXPANSION OF BUILT-UP AREAS IN BATAM FREE TRADE ZONE (FTZ) USING LAND CHANGE MODELER

The establishment of Batam City as a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) encourages the city’s growth, as manifested in massive built-up area expansion. The aim of this paper was to analyze the pattern of built-up area expansion in FTZ Batam in 2035 based on the corresponding pattern from 2000 to 2015. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was the instrument used to determine and analyze land cover changes in 2000–2015, from which future changes or built-up area expansion in 2035 were predicted using the validated 2020 land cover map as reference. The validation test based on the Kappa Index of Agreement yielded 96%. The prediction results showed that, compared with 2020, the built-up area in 2035 would have increased by 31.8% and expanded towards the outskirts of FTZ Batam. This sprawl follows the location of the primary activity centers in the FTZ, as allocated in Presidential Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia No. 87 of 2011. A new expansion is expected to continue into existing open space and extensive untouched forest areas. These research findings provide a concept that can be utilized to formulate certain policies and regional planning in the future.

Influence of Key Environmental Drivers on the Performance of Sediment Diversions

A Delft3D morphodynamic model for Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA is used to quantify a plausible range of land change in response to a proposed sediment diversion under a range of environmental drivers. To examine the influence of environmental drivers, such as Mississippi River water hydrographs, mineral and organic sediment loading, sea level rise rates, subsidence, and a projected implementation (or operation) date, 240 multi-decadal (2020–2100) numerical experiments were used. The diversion was assumed to begin operation in 2025, 2030, or 2035. The experiments revealed persistent benefits of the sediment diversion through 2100. Start data of 2025 result in a median net positive land change of 32 km2 by 2100; whereas the 90th, and 10th percentiles are 69 and 10 km2. A delay in the operation date of the diversion to 2030 or 2035 would reduce the net positive land change by approximately 15–20% and 20–30%, respectively.

Impacto de las actividades agropecuarias y petroleras sobre las coberturas naturales del campo petrolero Samaria, Tabasco

En las regiones tropicales del sureste de México, las actividades productivas de subsistencia, el crecimiento de las ciudades y la industria petrolera, están ocupando coberturas originales de vegetación selvática, vegetación hidrófita y cuerpos de agua. El objetivo del estudio fue valuar el efecto provocado por el crecimiento de las actividades primarias y de extracción de petróleo sobre las coberturas naturales, mediante la modelación del cambio de uso del suelo en el campo petrolero Samaria en los municipios de Cunduacán y Centro, Tabasco, México. Se realizó un análisis espacial con mapas de ocupación del suelo mediante Land Change Modeler y se determinaron ganancias, pérdidas, contribuciones, el cambio neto y las transiciones de cada categoría. Desde el inicio de la extracción de petróleo en 1965 hasta 2019, en el CPS, con una superficie de 8 052 ha, se perdieron 647 ha de humedales y 436 ha de vegetación arbórea, como consecuencia de la expansión de actividades primarias y la industria petrolera, las cuales ocuparon 1 287 ha de uso agrícola, 1 598 ha de uso pecuario, 269 ha de infraestructura petrolera y 775 ha de la zona urbana. Se concluye que la aplicación de Land Change Modeler fue novedosa para la evaluación de la degradación de los ecosistemas y la estimación de la distribución del cambio de coberturas naturales y usos artificiales en el campo petrolero Santamaria, estado de Tabasco.

Future land use change simulations for the Lepelle River Basin using Cellular Automata Markov model with Land Change Modeller-generated transition areas

Background: Land use/land cover (LULC), change is one of the major contributors to global environmental and climate variations. The ability to predict future LULC is crucial for environmental engineers, civil engineers, urban designers, and natural resource managers for planning activities. Methods: TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modelling System in conjunction with ArcGIS Pro 2.8 were used to process LULC data for the region of the Lepelle River Basin (LRB) of South Africa. Driver variables such as population density, slope, elevation as well as the Euclidean distances of cities, roads, highways, railroads, parks and restricted areas, towns to the LRB in combination with LULC data were analysed using the Land Change Modeller (LCM) and Cellular-Automata Markov (CAM) model. Results: The results reveal an array of losses (-) and gains (+) for certain LULC classes in the LRB by the year 2040: natural vegetation (+8.5%), plantations (+3.5%), water bodies (-31.6%), bare ground (-8.8%), cultivated land (-29.3%), built-up areas (+10.6%) and mines (+14.4%). Conclusions: The results point to the conversion of land uses from natural to anthropogenic by 2040. These changes also highlight how the potential losses associated with resources such as water will negatively impact society and ecosystem functioning in the LRB by exacerbating water scarcity driven by climate change. This modelling study seeks to provides a decision support system for predicting future land resource utilization in the LRB and perhaps assist for planning purposes.

Spatial Adaptive Responses of Highly Threatened European Mammal Species under Climate Change

Current species’ range displacements are mostly triggered by climate change but European landscapes are largely dominated by human activities. In this study we identify the most promising spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) for the thirty most threatened non volant mammal species in Europe up to 2080 (under three climate and land change scenarios) and where/when SATs of each species synchronically converge. We found large contrasts on the persistence of species in SATs, with some species largely reliant on the functionality of areas where many SATs converge. Overall, SATs and convergence centers are not adequately covered by existing conservation areas and coincide with crop and arable lands, compromising species persistence. It is important to invest in the protection of SATs and convergence centers through a mix of conventional instruments and new collaborative forms with the socio-economy. Anticipative plans at long-term coupled with risk analysis offer decision–makers templates to prevent negative surprises.

Trends in United States Human Footprint Revealed by New Spatial Metrics of Urbanization and Per Capita Land Change

Accelerations in population growth and urban expansion are transforming landscapes worldwide and represent a major sustainability challenge. In the United States, land conversion to impervious surfaces has outpaced population increases, yet there are few spatial metrics of urbanization and per capita land change available nationwide for assessing local to regional trends in human footprint. We quantified changes (2000–2010) in housing density, imperviousness, per capita land consumption, and land-use efficiency for block groups of the contiguous U.S. and examined national patterns and variation in these metrics along the urban–rural gradient and by megaregion. Growth in housing (+13.6%) and impervious development (+10.7%) resulted in losses of rural lands, primarily due to exurbanization and suburbanization. Mean per capita consumption increased in all density classes but was over 8.5 times greater in rural lands than in exurban, suburban, and urban areas. Urban and suburban areas had significantly lower mean consumption, yet change was unsustainable in 60% of these areas. Megaregions across the sprawling Sun Belt, spanning from Arizona to North Carolina, grew most unsustainably, especially compared to regions in the Pacific Northwest and Front Range. This work establishes 21st-century benchmarks that decision-makers can use to track local and regional per capita land change and sustainable growth in the U.S.; however, these metrics of the form, extent, rate, and efficiency of urbanization can be applied anywhere concurrent built-up area and population data are available over time. Our web mapping application allows anyone to explore spatial and temporal trends in human footprint and download metrics, and it is designed to be easily updatable with future releases of validated developed land cover, protected areas, and decennial Census data.