scholarly journals Early 21st century climatology of snow cover for the western river basins of the Indus River System

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 13145-13190 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hasson ◽  
V. Lucarini ◽  
M. R. Khan ◽  
M. Petitta ◽  
T. Bolch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
River System ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Lower Latitude ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Area Of Interest

Abstract. In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River System (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001–2012. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD) and Aqua (MYD) have been first improved and then analysed on seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our applied cloud filtering technique has reduced the cloud cover from 37% (MOD) and 43% (MYD) to 7%, thus improving snow cover estimates from 7% (MOD) and 5% (MYD) to 14% for the area of interest (AOI) during the validation period (2004). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (Upper Indus Basin, Astore, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Regarding the seasonal snow cover, decrease during winter and autumn and increase during spring and summer has been found, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitude/altitude show higher variability than basins at lower latitude/mid-altitude. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature larger snow cover. The mean regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range between 3000 and 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a decrease in the regional SLA zone, thus indicating a change in the water resources of the studied basins, particularly for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climate data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period. Moreover, our analysis suggests some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast as a significant negative correlation has been detected for the inter-annual variability of winter snow cover and value of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the previous autumn.

scholarly journals Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 4077-4100 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hasson ◽  
V. Lucarini ◽  
M. R. Khan ◽  
M. Petitta ◽  
T. Bolch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
River System ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Thematic Mapper ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Spring Season ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Annual Variability

Abstract. In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River system (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001–2012. First, we validate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD10A1) and Aqua (MYD10A1) against the Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (TM/ETM+) data set, and then improve them for clouds by applying a validated non-spectral cloud removal technique. The improved snow product has been analysed on a seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (upper Indus basin (UIB), Astore, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Seasonal average snow cover decreases during winter and autumn, and increases during spring and summer, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitudes/altitudes show higher variability than basins at lower latitudes/middle altitudes. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature greater snow cover. The mean end-of-summer regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range from 3000 to 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a descending end-of-summer regional SLA zone for most of the studied basins, which is significant for the Shyok and Kabul basins, thus indicating a change in their water resources. Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climatic data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period within the UIB. Moreover, our analysis shows a significant correlation between winter season snow cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the previous autumn. Similarly, the inter-annual variability of spring season snow cover and spring season precipitation explains well the inter-annual variability of the summer season discharge from most of the basins. These findings indicate some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast in the region, suggesting snow cover as a possible predictor.

scholarly journals Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-203
Author(s):  
Arshad Ashraf ◽  
Ghani Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 730
Author(s):  
Waqas Ul Hussan ◽  
Muhammad Khurram Shahzad ◽  
Frank Seidel ◽  
Anna Costa ◽  
Franz Nestmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
The Impact

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

A Study on Flood Forecasting in the Upper Indus Basin Considering Snow and Glacier Meltwater

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 793-805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Liu ◽  
Morimasa Tsuda ◽  
Yoichi Iwami ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Daily Discharge ◽  
Resolution Imaging ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Tarbela Dam

This study considered glacier and snow meltwater by using the degree–day method with ground-based air temperature and fractional glacier/snow cover to simulate discharge at Skardu, Partab Bridge (P. Bridge), and Tarbela Dam in the Upper Indus Basin during the monsoon season, from the middle of June to the end of September. The optimum parameter set was determined and validated in 2010 and 2012. The simulated discharge with glaciermelt and snowmelt could capture the variations of the observed discharge in terms of peak volume and timing, particularly in the early monsoon season. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily and eight-day snow cover products were applied and recommended with proper settings for application. This study also investigated the simulations with snow packs instead of daily snow cover, which was found to approach the maximum magnitude of observed discharge even from the uppermost station, Skardu.This study estimated the glacier and snow meltwater contribution at Skardu, Partab Bridge, and Tarbela as 43.2–65.2%, 22.0–29.3%, and 6.3–19.9% of average daily discharge during the monsoon season, respectively. In addition, this study evaluated the main source of simulation discrepancies and concluded that the methodology proposed in the study worked well with proper precipitation.

Quantification of Water Sustainability in Upper Indus River Basin Through the Concept of Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akif Rahim ◽  
Nadeem Tariq ◽  
Farhan Aziz ◽  
Muhammad Yousaf ◽  
Tahira Khurshid
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Water Sustainability ◽  
Sustainability Index ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Reliability Indicator ◽  
Basin Water ◽  
Indus River Basin

<p>The sustainability index identifies a strategy that defend or improve the desired water management features of the basin in the future. The Upper Indus river basin is a high mountain region and consider third freshwater tower. The flow of the river consists of melting glaciers, snow, rainfall. Beyond the polar regions, the Upper Indus Basin has the largest area of glaciers in the world (22,000 km<sup>2</sup>).  About 220 million people depend on Indus Basin water for agriculture and drinking purpose. Under the changing climate, sustainability is becoming a challenge for the freshwater resources. The integration of climate variables with RRV indicators is a new approach to meet this challenge. In this study the sustainability of the upper Indus is quantified. The probabilistic concept of resilience, reliability and vulnerability is applied to rainfall variability and drought patterns. The monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) grided data (0.5<sup>o</sup> 0.5<sup>o</sup>) generated by climate research unit (CRU)version 4 has been used for study during the period 1901–2018. Based on the SPEI pattern, the SPEI of -0.5 was selected as the threshold (demand) to evaluate the sustainability. The results indicate the frequency of drought events in the western part of the basin is much higher than the eastern part. However, the frequency of drought events in the basin is high but the capability of the basin to resilient the droughts varies from 0.57 to 0.83. The value of reliability indicator varies from 0.8 to 0.86 and vulnerability of drought in the basin is in the range of 0.2 to 0.45. The average water sustainability index of the basin is 0.4 which lies in the category of a satisfactory<strong> </strong>state.The results of the conceptual framework of RRV can provide a more comprehensive basis for designing watershed health variables and drought management plans.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Keywords: Upper Indus Basin, Water sustainability, RRV concept, SPEI, Drought.</strong></p>

scholarly journals Changes in Snow Cover Dynamics over the Indus Basin: Evidences from 2008 to 2018 MODIS NDSI Trends Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 2782
Author(s):  
Sikandar Ali ◽  
Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud Cheema ◽  
Muhammad Mohsin Waqas ◽  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Snow Cover Area ◽  
Standard Product ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Normalized Difference Snow Index

The frozen water reserves on the Earth are not only very dynamic in their nature, but also have significant effects on hydrological response of complex and dynamic river basins. The Indus basin is one of the most complex river basins in the world and receives most of its share from the Asian Water Tower (Himalayas). In such a huge river basin with high-altitude mountains, the regular quantification of snow cover is a great challenge to researchers for the management of downstream ecosystems. In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily (MOD09GA) and 8-day (MOD09A1) products were used for the spatiotemporal quantification of snow cover over the Indus basin and the western rivers’ catchments from 2008 to 2018. The high-resolution Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) was used as a standard product with a minimum Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) threshold (0.4) to delineate the snow cover for 120 scenes over the Indus basin on different days. All types of errors of commission/omission were masked out using water, sand, cloud, and forest masks at different spatiotemporal resolutions. The snow cover comparison of MODIS products with Landsat ETM+, in situ snow data and Google Earth imagery indicated that the minimum NDSI threshold of 0.34 fits well compared to the globally accepted threshold of 0.4 due to the coarser resolution of MODIS products. The intercomparison of the time series snow cover area of MODIS products indicated R2 values of 0.96, 0.95, 0.97, 0.96 and 0.98, for the Chenab, Jhelum, Indus and eastern rivers’ catchments and Indus basin, respectively. A linear least squares regression analysis of the snow cover area of the Indus basin indicated a declining trend of about 3358 and 2459 km2 per year for MOD09A1 and MOD09GA products, respectively. The results also revealed a decrease in snow cover area over all the parts of the Indus basin and its sub-catchments. Our results suggest that MODIS time series NDSI analysis is a useful technique to estimate snow cover over the mountainous areas of complex river basins.

scholarly journals Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 447-468
Author(s):  
Yasir Latif ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
River Basins ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Unique Region ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Kabul River

AbstractThe Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply to sustain environmental and human needs downstream by a balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, and surface water. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH); this unique region is largely controlled by seasonal meltwater associated with snow and glacier melt during the summer months. The present study seeks to evaluate changes in hydrological and meteorological variable data collected through a network of 35 hydrometric and 15 climatic stations, respectively, across the UIB, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins in Pakistan. The Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) in combination with the Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method was applied for the slope determination of detected trends over four periods of differing lengths (T1: 1961–2013; T2: 1971–2013; T3: 1981–2013; and T4: 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed in the mean summer and distinct months of (June–August) temperature (Tmean) at most of the stations during T1, while significant increases were dominant over the shorter T4. The mean precipitation (Pmean) was observed as significantly negative at ten stations during July; however, positive trends were observed in August and September. For streamflow, significantly upward trends were observed for mean summer, June and July flows (snowmelt dominant) during T1 and T2, within the glacier-fed basins of Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok; in contrast, streamflow (glacier melt dominant) decreased significantly in August and September over the most recent period T4. For snow-fed basins, significant increases were observed in summer mean flows at Indus at Kachura, Gilgit at Gilgit, and Alam Bridge, Astore at Doyian during (T1–T3). In particular, a stronger and more prominent signal of decreasing flows was evident in T4 within the predominantly snow-fed basins. This signal was most apparent in summer mean flows, with a large number of stations featuring significant downward trends in Jehlum and Kabul river basins. The present study concludes that the vulnerability of this region related to water stress is becoming more intense due to significantly increased temperature, reduced precipitation, and decreasing summer flows during T4.

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