scholarly journals An operational flash-flood forecasting chain applied to the test cases of the EU project HYDROPTIMET

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. Taramasso ◽  
S. Gabellani ◽  
A. Parodi
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Eu Project ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Abstract. The application of a flash-flood prediction chain, developed by CIMA, to some testcases for the Tanaro river basin in the framework of the EU project HYDROPTIMET is presented here. The components of the CIMA chain are: forecast rainfall depths, a stochastic downscaling procedure and a hydrological model. Different meteorological Limited Area Models (LAMs) provide the rainfall input to the hydrological component. The flash-flood prediction chain is run both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic configuration. The sensitivity of forecasting chain performances to different LAMs providing rainfall forecasts is discussed. The results of the application show how the probabilistic forecasting system can give, especially in the case of convective events, a valuable contribution in addressing the uncertainty at different spatio-temporal scales involved in the flash flood forecasting problem in small and medium basins with complex orography.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Model Used for the Prediction of a State of Emergency for a River Basin in the Case of a Flash Flood - PART 2

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 162-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Janál ◽  
Miloš Starý
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Uncertain Input ◽  
Uncertain Input Data ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Fuzzy Model Used for the Prediction of a State of Emergency for a River Basin in the Case of a Flash Flood - PART 2This article is a continuation of a previous one named Fuzzy model use for prediction of the state of emergency of river basin in the case of flash flood (Janál&Starý, 2009), where the potential applications of fuzzy logic in the field of flash flood forecasting were described. Flash flood forecasting needs a specific approach because of the character of torrential rainfall. Storms are very difficult to forecast in space and time. The hydrological models designed for flash flood prediction have to be able to work with very uncertain input data. Moreover, the models have to be capable of evaluating the level of danger in as short a time as possible because of the highly dynamic character of the modeled process. The fuzzy model described in the previous article was modified into a form usable in operational hydrology and a simulation of its operational application was run using this model. The selected time period for the simulation was the summer of 2009, when numerous flash floods occurred in Czech Republic. The topic of this article is the preparation of the model for practical use and the results of the simulation of its operation.

scholarly journals Implementation of a Unique Real Time Flash Flood Forecasting System in Martinique (France)

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nelly Peyron ◽  
◽  
Mireille Raymond ◽  
Frederic Alfonsi ◽  
Bernard Naigre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

An All-Season Flash Flood Forecasting System for Real-Time Operations

2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Broxton ◽  
Peter A. Troch ◽  
Mike Schaffner ◽  
Carl Unkrich ◽  
David Goodrich
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Flash floods can cause extensive damage to both life and property, especially because they are difficult to predict. Flash flood prediction requires high-resolution meteorological observations and predictions, as well as calibrated hydrological models, which should effectively simulate how a catchment filters rainfall inputs into streamflow. Furthermore, because of the requirement of both hydrological and meteorological components in flash flood forecasting systems, there must be extensive data handling capabilities built in to force the hydrological model with a variety of available hydrometeorological data and predictions, as well as to test the model with hydrological observations. The authors have developed a working prototype of such a system, called KINEROS/hsB-SM, after the hydrological models that are used: the Kinematic Erosion and Runoff (KINEROS) and hillslope-storage Boussinesq Soil Moisture (hsB-SM) models. KINEROS is an event-based overland flow and channel routing model that is designed to simulate flash floods in semiarid regions where infiltration excess overland flow dominates, while hsB-SM is a continuous subsurface flow model, whose model physics are applicable in humid regions where saturation excess overland flow is most important. In addition, KINEROS/hsB-SM includes an energy balance snowmelt model, which gives it the ability to simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. There are also extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorological data, including stage III radar data (5 min, 1° by 1 km), to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. The model is currently being used in an experimental fashion at the National Weather Service Binghamton, New York, Weather Forecast Office.

2D hydraulic model integration to real-time flash flood forecasting chain

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Girard ◽  
T Godfroy ◽  
M Erlich ◽  
E David ◽  
C Sorbet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Hydraulic Model ◽  
Model Integration ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

scholarly journals Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1289-1331 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Liechti ◽  
L. Panziera ◽  
U. Germann ◽  
M. Zappa
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Orographic Rainfall ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

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