A method to predict the uncompleted climate transition process

Abstract. Climate change could be expressed as a climate system transiting from the initial state to a new state in a short time. By considering the short period as a continued process, which is called transition process, more details of climate change would be described according to analysis the time sequence self. We had proposed a method to quantify the transition process of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) time sequence and global sea surface temperature system. And the quantitative relationships among the parameters characterizing the abrupt changes is revealed during the transition process. In this paper, we develop this method to predict the end moment (state) if the transition process has not been completed. Application of prediction method to the PDO sequences indicates that the PDO index increased from a stable stage before 2011 and gradually evolved to a transition process, and it was likely to end in 2015, which is consistent with observations.

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A method for predicting the uncompleted climate transition process

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ◽

10.5194/npg-27-489-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 27 (4) ◽

pp. 489-500

Author(s):

Pengcheng Yan ◽

Guolin Feng ◽

Wei Hou ◽

Ping Yang

Keyword(s):

Continuous Function ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Prediction Method ◽

Quantitative Relationship ◽

Transition Process ◽

Initial State ◽

The Pacific ◽

Climate Transition ◽

Short Time ◽

Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract. Climate change is expressed as a climate system transiting from the initial state to a new state in a short time. The period between the initial state and the new state is defined as the transition process, which is the key part for connecting the two states. By using a piece-wise function, the transition process is stated approximately (Mudelsee, 2000). However, the dynamic processes are not included in the piece-wise function. Thus, we proposed a method (Yan et al., 2015, 2016) to fit the transition process by using a continuous function. In this paper, this method is further developed for predicting the uncompleted transition process based on the dynamic characteristics of the continuous function. We introduce this prediction method in detail and apply it to three ideal time sequences and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO is a long-lasting El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Barnett et al., 1999; Newman et al., 2016). A new quantitative relationship during the transition process has been revealed, and it explores a nonlinear relationship between the linear trend and the amplitude (difference) between the initial state and the end state. As the transition process begins, the initial state and the linear trend are estimated. Then, according to the relationship, the end state and end moment of the uncompleted transition process are predicted.

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Variation of glacial dynamics in Peru: from valley glaciers to mountain glaciers in a context of climate change

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4452 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Edwin Loarte ◽

Katy Medina ◽

Yadira Curo ◽

Hairo Leon ◽

Fiorella Quiñonez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mountain Glacier ◽

Morphometric Variation ◽

Mountain Ranges ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Tropical Glaciers ◽

The Pacific ◽

Short Period ◽

Valley Glacier ◽

Glacial Dynamics

One of the effects of climate change on tropical glaciers is the accelerated reduction of their glacial tongue, reflected in a morphometric variation. Many glaciers that had pronounced tongues and that extended through a valley (Valley glacier) now have reduced their fronts located in the upper parts of the valleys (Mountain glacier).This has been studied with glaciers of Peru located in 18 mountain ranges located from S 8&#176;20'56" to 15&#176;53'26" and W 77&#176;56'10" to 69&#176;05'14", which are an important solid water reserve that directly supplies the population of 11 departments.The study focused on the "digit 1" (primary classification) of the Global Land Ice Measurement from Space (GLIMS), which classifies the glaciers mainly in: valley glaciers and mountain glaciers. The processing of raster and vector data through the use of geographic information system and remote sensing tools allowed to analyze the changes and variations affecting glaciers with respect to their morphometry. For this, a comparison was made between glacier coverage in 2016 (using images Sentinel 2), produced by INAIGEM, and the baseline of the glacier coverage of 1955 and 1970 (using aerial photography), from the first inventory of glaciers in Peru, produced by Hidrandina S.A.The results show a significant morphometric variation of 83.7%, where valley glaciers (from Hidrandina inventory) became mainly mountain glaciers. Nowadays only four mountain ranges have mountain glaciers inside whereas in the past it were nine. When we analyze the results for watersheds, the most morphometric changes were 89% in the Atlantic watershed, followed by 57% in the Pacific watershed; in the Amazon watershed there was not any registration of any mountain glaciers since the first inventory in Peru. The surface changes do not show specific any predominant aspect, and average slopes are between 25&#176; and 50&#176;.The glacial tongues that are considered valley glacier area located in ablation zones, where the mass balance is negative and there is more susceptibility to reducing their mass and, consequently, to variations in shape and size in a short period. This change has been accentuated in recent decades.

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A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ◽

10.5194/npg-22-249-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 249-258 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

P. C. Yan ◽

G. L. Feng ◽

W. Hou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Logistic Model ◽

Abrupt Change ◽

Stable State ◽

Transition Process ◽

Time Sequence ◽

Abrupt Climate Change ◽

Before And After ◽

Novel Method ◽

The Mathematical Model

Abstract. A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process (ACP) of PDO has a relationship with global warming.

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A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions ◽

10.5194/npgd-2-43-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 43-67

Author(s):

P. C. Yan ◽

G. L. Feng ◽

W. Hou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Logistic Model ◽

Abrupt Change ◽

Stable State ◽

Transition Process ◽

Time Sequence ◽

Abrupt Climate Change ◽

Before And After ◽

Novel Method ◽

The Mathematical Model

Abstract. A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the Logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process of PDO has a relationship with global warming.

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Climate change adaptation planning in remote contexts: insights from community-based natural resource management and rural development initiatives in the Pacific Islands

Climate and Development ◽

10.1080/17565529.2020.1867046 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Daniela Medina Hidalgo ◽

Patrick D. Nunn ◽

Harriot Beazley ◽

Joji Sivo Sovinasalevu ◽

Joeli Veitayaki

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Resource Management ◽

Rural Development ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Natural Resource Management ◽

Natural Resource ◽

Pacific Islands ◽

Adaptation Planning ◽

Community Based ◽

The Pacific

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Litigating Human Rights Violations Related to the Adverse Effects of Climate Change in the Pacific Islands

Climate Change Litigation in the Asia Pacific ◽

10.1017/9781108777810.006 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 94-119

Author(s):

Margaretha Wewerinke-Singh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Human Rights ◽

Adverse Effects ◽

Pacific Islands ◽

Human Rights Violations ◽

The Pacific

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Power, the Pacific Islands, and the Prestige Press: A Case Study of How Climate Reporting is Influenced by UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Summits

The International Journal of Press/Politics ◽

10.1177/19401612211018067 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 194016122110180

Author(s):

Meghan M. Shea ◽

James Painter ◽

Shannon Osaka

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Media Coverage ◽

Pacific Islands ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

The Pacific ◽

Emotional Appeals ◽

Issue Attention ◽

Quantitative Results

While studies have investigated UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meetings as drivers of climate change reporting as well as the geopolitical role of Pacific Islands in these international forums, little research examines the intersection: how media coverage of Pacific Islands and climate change (PICC) may be influenced by, or may influence, UNFCCC meetings. We analyze two decades of reporting on PICC in American, British, and Australian newspapers—looking at both volume and content of coverage—and expand the quantitative results with semi-structured interviews with journalists and Pacific stakeholders. Issue attention on PICC increases and the content changes significantly in the periods around UNFCCC meetings, with shifts from language about vulnerability outside of UNFCCC periods to language about agency and solutions. We explore the implications of these differences in coverage for both agenda setting and the amplification of emotional appeals in UNFCCC contexts.

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