scholarly journals A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 249-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. C. Yan ◽  
G. L. Feng ◽  
W. Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Time Sequence ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Abstract. A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process (ACP) of PDO has a relationship with global warming.

scholarly journals A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-67
Author(s):  
P. C. Yan ◽  
G. L. Feng ◽  
W. Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Time Sequence ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Abstract. A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the Logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process of PDO has a relationship with global warming.

scholarly journals The Application of Recurrence Quantification Analysis in Detection of Abrupt Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Zhang ◽  
Guoling Feng ◽  
Qunqun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Dynamic Structure ◽  
Recurrence Quantification Analysis ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Potential Value ◽  
Recurrence Quantification ◽  
Quantification Analysis

This paper explores the possible application of recurrence quantification analysis in the detection of abrupt change of the dynamic structure of the climate system. It is discovered in the recurrence quantification analysis of the typical chaotic system-logistic model that the method may well distinguish the state of logistic model with different parameters, demonstrating its potential value in identifying the dynamic change of the system. When recurrence quantification analysis is later applied to the detection of abrupt change of average daily precipitation of all regions in China, the result indicates that the abrupt change of the dynamic structure corresponding to the precipitation of China in recent 50 years occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1980s. It is in agreement with the Chinese commonly recognized years of abruption; therefore the effectiveness is further demonstrated regarding the recognition of complexity of dynamical system.

scholarly journals A method to predict the uncompleted climate transition process

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Guolin Feng ◽  
Wei Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Time Sequence ◽  
Initial State ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Climate Transition ◽  
Short Time

Abstract. Climate change could be expressed as a climate system transiting from the initial state to a new state in a short time. By considering the short period as a continued process, which is called transition process, more details of climate change would be described according to analysis the time sequence self. We had proposed a method to quantify the transition process of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) time sequence and global sea surface temperature system. And the quantitative relationships among the parameters characterizing the abrupt changes is revealed during the transition process. In this paper, we develop this method to predict the end moment (state) if the transition process has not been completed. Application of prediction method to the PDO sequences indicates that the PDO index increased from a stable stage before 2011 and gradually evolved to a transition process, and it was likely to end in 2015, which is consistent with observations.

scholarly journals Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 115-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Wei Hou ◽  
Guolin Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Global Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
State Moment

Abstract. A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

scholarly journals Understanding the Abrupt Climate Change in the Mid-1970s from a Phase-Space Transform Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (11) ◽  
pp. 2551-2560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanlong Dai ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Yan Guo ◽  
Tao Hong ◽  
Dong Ji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Coordinate System ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Coordinate Systems ◽  
Dimensional Phase Space ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Space Coordinate

AbstractAbrupt climate change may cause heat, drought, and flood disasters. In this study, we find that many climate factors [e.g., the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] show a decadal-scale abrupt change in the 1970s. To analyze this phenomenon thoroughly, a new method of pedigree clustering combined with phase-space analysis (PCPSA) is used to establish two-dimensional phase-space coordinate systems of EASM–AO, EASM–PDO, and AO–PDO and the three-dimensional phase-space coordinate system of EASM–AO–PDO. By using the PCPSA method, it is found that all of the phase-space coordinate systems have a significant abrupt change in the mid-1970s, with a transition period, and the fit to the abrupt change of the phase-space coordinate system is better than 80%, which indicates excellent fit. By analyzing the correlation of EASM, AO, and PDO with sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), it is found that SLP has an obvious weakening trend in the high latitudes and an increasing trend in the tropics while SST has an increasing trend in most of the Southern Hemisphere waters and a minor weakening trend in the North Pacific Ocean waters between 30° and 40°N. Therefore, the abrupt climate change of the 1970s may well be a global abrupt change of the climatic system.

scholarly journals Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Wei Hou ◽  
Guolin Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Global Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
State Moment

Abstract. We propose a new concept of abrupt climate change transition and create a novel detection method to identify the transition process. With this method, how the climate system transits from one stable state to another could be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature data over the past century, several climate change processes are detected, including their starting state (moment), persist time, and ending state (moment) etc. According to the spatial distributions, the locations of climate changes mainly occurred in Indian ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, while the climate changes in 1970s located in equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and the climate changes happened in the middle and southern Pacific since the end twentieth century. In addition, an quantitative relationship among the transition process parameters has been exposed in theory and practice, which the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document