scholarly journals Hybrid improved empirical mode decomposition and BP neural network model for the prediction of sea surface temperature

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Wu ◽  
Changbo Jiang ◽  
Mack Conde ◽  
Bin Deng ◽  
Jie Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
The North ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Bpnn Model

Abstract. Sea surface temperature (SST) is the major factor that affects the ocean–atmosphere interaction, and in turn the accurate prediction of SST is the key to ocean dynamic prediction. In this paper, an SST-predicting method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithms and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is proposed. Two different EMD algorithms have been applied extensively for analyzing time-series SST data and some nonlinear stochastic signals. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm and complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) algorithm are two improved algorithms of EMD, which can effectively handle the mode-mixing problem and decompose the original data into more stationary signals with different frequencies. Each intrinsic mode function (IMF) has been taken as input data to the back-propagation neural network model. The final predicted SST data are obtained by aggregating the predicted data of individual series of IMFs (IMFi). A case study of the monthly mean SST anomaly (SSTA) in the northeastern region of the North Pacific shows that the proposed hybrid CEEMD-BPNN model is much more accurate than the hybrid EEMD-BPNN model, and the prediction accuracy based on a BP neural network is improved by the CEEMD method. Statistical analysis of the case study demonstrates that applying the proposed hybrid CEEMD-BPNN model is effective for the SST prediction. Highlights include the following: Highlights. An SST-predicting method based on the hybrid EMD algorithms and BP neural network method is proposed in this paper. SST prediction results based on the hybrid EEMD-BPNN and CEEMD-BPNN models are compared and discussed. A case study of SST in the North Pacific shows that the proposed hybrid CEEMD-BPNN model can effectively predict the time-series SST.

scholarly journals Hybrid improved EMD-BPNN model for the prediction of sea surface temperature

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Wu ◽  
Changbo Jiang ◽  
Mack Conde ◽  
Bin Deng ◽  
Jie Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Bpnn Model

Abstract. Sea surface temperature (SST) is the major factor that affects the ocean-atmosphere interaction, and in turn the accurate prediction of SST is the key to ocean dynamic prediction. In this paper, an SST predicting method based on improved empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithms and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is proposed. Two different EMD algorithms have been applied extensively for analyzing time-series SST data and some nonlinear stochastic signals. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm and Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) algorithm are two improved algorithms of EMD, which can effectively handle the mode-mixing problem and decompose the original data into more stationary signals with different frequencies. Each Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) has been taken as an input data to the back-propagation neural network model. The final predicted SST data is obtained by aggregating the predicted data of individual IMF. A case study, of the monthly mean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northeastern region of the North Pacific, shows that the proposed hybrid CEEMD-BPNN model is much more accurate than the hybrid EEMD-BPNN model, and the prediction accuracy based on BP neural network is improved by the CEEMD method. Statistical analysis of the case study demonstrates that applying the proposed hybrid CEEMD-BPNN model is effective for the SST prediction.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Power Load

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiani Heng ◽  
Chen Wang ◽  
Xuejing Zhao ◽  
Jianzhou Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Cuckoo Search Algorithm ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting

Power load forecasting always plays a considerable role in the management of a power system, as accurate forecasting provides a guarantee for the daily operation of the power grid. It has been widely demonstrated in forecasting that hybrid forecasts can improve forecast performance compared with individual forecasts. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting approach, comprising Empirical Mode Decomposition, CSA (Cuckoo Search Algorithm), and WNN (Wavelet Neural Network), is proposed. This approach constructs a more valid forecasting structure and more stable results than traditional ANN (Artificial Neural Network) models such as BPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network), GABPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network Optimized by Genetic Algorithm), and WNN. To evaluate the forecasting performance of the proposed model, a half-hourly power load in New South Wales of Australia is used as a case study in this paper. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model is not only simple but also able to satisfactorily approximate the actual power load and can be an effective tool in planning and dispatch for smart grids.

scholarly journals Hybrid Solar Forecasting Method Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Back Propagation Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 231 ◽  
pp. 02001
Author(s):  
Ahmed Aghmadi ◽  
Soumia El Hani ◽  
Hamza Mediouni ◽  
Nisrin Naseri ◽  
Fatima El Issaoui
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Forecasting Method

In order to improve the accuracy of solar radiation prediction and optimize the energy management system. This study proposes a forecasting model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). Empirical mode of decomposition (EMD)-based ensemble methods with powerful predictive abilities have become relatively common in forecasting study. First, the existing solar radiation datasets are decomposed into an intrinsic mode function (IMF) and one residue produces fairly stationary sub-series that can easily be modeled on BPNN. Next, both components of the IMF and residue are applied to create the respective BPNN models. Then, the corresponding BPNN is used to predict some sub-series. Finally, the predictive values of the original solar radiation datasets are determined by the sum of each predicted sub-series. Compared with traditional models such as conventional neural network or ARIMA time series, the hybrid EMD-BPNN model shows great results in term of RMSE with 28.13 (W/m2). On the other hand, the result of BPNN and ARIMA was 83.28 (W/m2) and 108.88 (W/m2), respectively. that the non-stationary and non-linear of solar radiation signal has less effect on the accuracy of the prediction.

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